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First Industrial Realty Trust Inc. (FR) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$54.80 +0.72% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $54.77

First Industrial Realty Trust Inc. (FR) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $7.27B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, First Industrial Realty Trust Inc. (NYSE: FR) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $54.80 (+0.72% 1D, market cap $7.27B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, FR ranks #452 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FR compare to STAG and ARE in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), FR carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 29.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.2%. By comparison, STAG (Stag Industrial Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 26.3x, ROIC 5.2%, cap $7.23B) and ARE (Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -6.5%, cap $7.41B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NNN leads on earnings multiple (20.4x) while NNN leads on capital efficiency (7.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FR?
▼

Per FR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000921825), First Industrial Realty Trust Inc. generated $727.1M in revenue (+8.6% YoY), $247.4M in net income, and $428.5M in free cash flow against $5.69B in total assets and $1.32B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $54.77 (-0.06%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 58.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510058
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (15)Whales (5)SEC (15)Macro (8)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target
$73 Bull$55 Base$43 Bear
📬 FREE FR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FR SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 58.9% FCF Margin ($428.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
66
Grade B-$58.78-5.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
63
Grade C+$55.29-0.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
61
Grade C$54.99-0.3% Next Q
Current
58
Grade D+$54.80+0% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (66) → D+ (58)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FR Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, FR faces multiple-compression risk if 29.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($59.32) or 200D SMA ($61.28) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($54.80) toward Bear Floor ($42.74).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±4.1%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (FR)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for FR.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of FR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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FR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.23%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-04O $54.41H $54.80L $54.41C $54.80VOL 1.73M
RES: $59.58SUP: $53.75SMA50: $59.32SMA200: $61.28
$70.98$66.42$61.86$57.30$52.75RES $59.58SUP $53.75$54.802026-05-052026-06-222026-08-062026-09-222026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FR Butterfly Map → + Track FR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
22.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FR)

Financials Rank #452 of 1097 ⚔️ STAG vs FR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FR vs. STAG, ARE, MAC, NNN)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Industrial Realty Trust Inc. (FR) ranks #452 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #225 by equity capitalization ($7.27B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NNN leads on earnings valuation at 20.4x trailing P/E, while NNN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.2% ROIC and — gross margin. NNN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with FR at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
FR ACTIVE
First Industrial Realty Trust Inc.
D+ 58/100 29.5x — 6.2% +0.72% $7.27B Benchmark Subject
STAG
Stag Industrial Inc.
C- 59/100 26.3x — 5.2% +1.71% $7.23B /stag-vs-fr →
ARE
Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.
D 46/100 — — -6.5% +5.90% $7.41B /are-vs-fr →
MAC
Macerich Company
C- 59/100 — — -4.1% +1.93% $7.04B /mac-vs-fr →
NNN
NNN REIT Inc.
C 64/100 20.4x — 7.2% +1.71% $8.00B /nnn-vs-fr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000921825 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), First Industrial Realty Trust Inc. (FR) reported GAAP revenue of $727.1M (+8.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $669.6M , and +18.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $247.4M, operating cash flow of $461.3M, and free cash flow of $428.5M (+32.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, FR closed FY2025 with $5.69B in total assets against $1.32B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $727.1M $247.4M $461.3M $428.5M $5.69B $1.32B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $669.6M $287.6M $352.5M $322.4M $5.26B $1.13B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $614.0M $274.8M $304.8M $277.2M $4.01B $938.3M

3. FR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, First Industrial Realty Trust Inc. (NYSE: FR) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $54.80 (+0.72% 1D, market cap $7.27B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, FR ranks #452 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FR compare to STAG and ARE in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), FR carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 29.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.2%. By comparison, STAG (Stag Industrial Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 26.3x, ROIC 5.2%, cap $7.23B) and ARE (Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -6.5%, cap $7.41B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NNN leads on earnings multiple (20.4x) while NNN leads on capital efficiency (7.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FR?

Per FR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000921825), First Industrial Realty Trust Inc. generated $727.1M in revenue (+8.6% YoY), $247.4M in net income, and $428.5M in free cash flow against $5.69B in total assets and $1.32B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FR last traded at $54.80 (+0.72% on volume of 1,731,357 shares), positioning the stock -7.62% below its 50-day simple moving average ($59.32) and -10.57% below its 200-day simple moving average ($61.28). Across its 52-week range of $54.16 to $69.88, FR sits at the 4.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($52.55 to $57.05).

Direct Sub-Reports: FR RQD Cockpit FR 12M Forecast FR Earnings & Move FR Dividends & DRIP FR Insiders & 13F FR Whale Options FR Profit Sankey FR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 58/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

FR — First Industrial Realty Trust Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

First Industrial Realty Trust Inc. (FR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 58/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $54.80 (+0.72% 1D, market capitalization $7.27B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 41.5%, and free cash flow yield of 5.88%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.06x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

First Industrial Realty Trust Inc. (FR) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating within the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry (per the company profile). — for further business-model specifics. The reported operating margin of 41.5% and net margin of 34% (per the market data) indicate high profitability relative to revenue.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), First Industrial Realty Trust Inc. (FR) reported $727.1M in annual revenue (up from $669.6M in FY2024, +8.6% YoY) and $247.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($614.0M revenue, $274.8M net income) through FY2025, FR scaled operating cash flow to $461.3M and free cash flow to $428.5M, backed by $5.69B in total assets against $1.32B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 58/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $54.16 – $69.88 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 29.5x trailing P/E and 25.6x EV/EBITDA against 41.5% operating margins and a 1.06x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Real Estate Investment Trusts (Financials), FR carries a macro regime beta of 1.06 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can FR sustain or expand its 41.5% operating margin and 6.2% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $727.1M and free cash flow of $428.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.32B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is FR's 27.4x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.06x)?

FR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for First Industrial Realty Trust Inc. (FR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $54.80?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on FR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $62.57 (+15.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet is the strongest pillar, with Piotroski F 8/9, Altman Z 2.5, and Debt/Equity 0.5, while FCF rose to $428.5M in F

Forensic balance sheet is the strongest pillar, with Piotroski F 8/9, Altman Z 2.5, and Debt/Equity 0.5, while FCF rose to $428.5M in FY 2025.. When you look under the hood at FR, Fundamental Cash Engine is 15/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 6.2% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (5/20) has been quietly accumulating below $69.88. My 12M target is $62.57.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Fair point on 29.5x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Real Estate Investment Trusts. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $44.62 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $54.41

Valuation is elevated at 29.5x trailing P/E and 25.6x EV/EBITDA against ROIC of 6.2%, with weak whale flow (5/20) and a Q3 FFO miss in

Fading this rally in FR at $54.41. Valuation is elevated at 29.5x trailing P/E and 25.6x EV/EBITDA against ROIC of 6.2%, with weak whale flow (5/20) and a Q3 FFO miss in the news wire.. With a beta of 1.06 and the stock sitting at $54.41 (52-wk range $54.16–$69.88), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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