ROARABLE
FREE $100K
My Trading Account →
▾
Trading Profile Active
Active Trader
Verified Trader
⚡ My $100K Trading Account → ★ My Saved Watchlist →
🟢 My $100K Account → Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Financials / FSUN / earnings
STBA (66) OCFC (54) RBCAA (65) DCOM (70) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.6% Move

$40.00 -0.35% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.90

FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.83B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FSUN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FSUN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, FirstSun Capital Bancorp (NASDAQ: FSUN) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $40.00 (-0.35% 1D, market cap $1.83B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, FSUN ranks #307 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FSUN compare to STBA and OCFC in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FSUN carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.5%. By comparison, STBA (S&T Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 13.4x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $1.83B) and OCFC (OceanFirst Financial Corp.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 26.1x, ROIC 4.0%, cap $1.84B). Among the 5-stock peer group, STBA leads on earnings multiple (13.4x) while RBCAA leads on capital efficiency (11.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FSUN?
▼

Per FSUN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001709442), FirstSun Capital Bancorp generated $3.56B in revenue (+4.8% YoY), $97.9M in net income, and $104.0M in free cash flow against $8.49B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.90 (-0.25%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510063
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C · Rk C
Cash (12)Whales (10)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target
$48 Bull$41 Base$32 Bear
📬 FREE FSUN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FSUN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FSUN SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
55
Grade C$37.67+2.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$38.48+1.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
60
Grade C$39.08+2.4% Next Q
Current
63
Grade C$40.00+0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FSUN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, FSUN faces multiple-compression risk if 18.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($39.34) or 200D SMA ($37.88) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($40.90) toward Bear Floor ($31.90).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FSUN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FSUN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~55 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.6% Swing Band

±$1.84 Expected Swing
$38.16 (-4.6%)Spot $40.00$41.84 (+4.6%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

FSUN Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 63/100

Trailing EPS: $2.15 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (63/100)Model Risk Weight (37/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$3.56B$97.9M$104.0M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$3.40B$75.6M$95.7M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$475.7M$103.5M$125.2M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating FSUN & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on FSUN
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
FSUN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +10.16%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-04O $39.17H $40.14L $39.17C $40.00VOL 349.2K
RES: $40.68SUP: $31.07SMA50: $39.34SMA200: $37.88
$41.90$39.52$37.14$34.76$32.38RES $40.68SUP $31.07$40.002026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FSUN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FSUN Butterfly Map → + Track FSUN →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
11.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FSUN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FSUN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FSUN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FSUN)

Financials Rank #307 of 1097 ⚔️ STBA vs FSUN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FSUN vs. STBA, OCFC, RBCAA, DCOM)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) ranks #307 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #443 by equity capitalization ($1.83B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, STBA leads on earnings valuation at 13.4x trailing P/E, while RBCAA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.9% ROIC and — gross margin. DCOM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with FSUN at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
FSUN ACTIVE
FirstSun Capital Bancorp
C 63/100 18.3x — 8.5% -0.35% $1.83B Benchmark Subject
STBA
S&T Bancorp Inc.
C+ 66/100 13.4x — 9.2% -1.46% $1.83B /stba-vs-fsun →
OCFC
OceanFirst Financial Corp.
D+ 54/100 26.1x — 4.0% -1.77% $1.84B /ocfc-vs-fsun →
RBCAA
Republic Bancorp Inc. (Class A)
C 65/100 13.7x — 11.9% -1.36% $1.81B /rbcaa-vs-fsun →
DCOM
Dime Commercial Bancshares Inc.
B- 70/100 16.9x — 7.5% -1.08% $1.87B /dcom-vs-fsun →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001709442 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) reported GAAP revenue of $3.56B (+4.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.40B , and +649.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $97.9M, operating cash flow of $111.5M, and free cash flow of $104.0M (+8.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, FSUN closed FY2025 with $8.49B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $3.56B $97.9M $111.5M $104.0M $8.49B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.40B $75.6M $101.1M $95.7M $8.10B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $475.7M $103.5M $125.2M $125.2M — —

3. FSUN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FSUN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, FirstSun Capital Bancorp (NASDAQ: FSUN) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $40.00 (-0.35% 1D, market cap $1.83B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, FSUN ranks #307 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FSUN compare to STBA and OCFC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FSUN carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.5%. By comparison, STBA (S&T Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 13.4x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $1.83B) and OCFC (OceanFirst Financial Corp.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 26.1x, ROIC 4.0%, cap $1.84B). Among the 5-stock peer group, STBA leads on earnings multiple (13.4x) while RBCAA leads on capital efficiency (11.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FSUN?

Per FSUN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001709442), FirstSun Capital Bancorp generated $3.56B in revenue (+4.8% YoY), $97.9M in net income, and $104.0M in free cash flow against $8.49B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FSUN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FSUN last traded at $40.00 (-0.35% on volume of 308,991 shares), positioning the stock +1.68% above its 50-day simple moving average ($39.34) and +5.60% above its 200-day simple moving average ($37.88). Across its 52-week range of $29.95 to $42.34, FSUN sits at the 81.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.6% ($38.16 to $41.84).

Direct Sub-Reports: FSUN RQD Cockpit FSUN 12M Forecast FSUN Earnings & Move FSUN Dividends & DRIP FSUN Insiders & 13F FSUN Whale Options FSUN Profit Sankey FSUN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

FSUN — FirstSun Capital Bancorp: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 63/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $40.00 (-0.35% 1D, market capitalization $1.83B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 5.80%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

..8B. —: specific product lines, customer segments, and revenue-generation mechanics.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) reported $3.56B in annual revenue (up from $3.40B in FY2024, +4.8% YoY) and $97.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($475.7M revenue, $103.5M net income) through FY2025, FSUN scaled operating cash flow to $111.5M and free cash flow to $104.0M, backed by $8.49B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 63/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 5.80% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $29.95 – $42.34 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 18.3x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector context provided is the Financials / Major Banks classification and the reported deposit-runoff theme in the news wire.

  • Key Question #1: Can FSUN sustain or expand its — operating margin and 8.5% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.56B and free cash flow of $104.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is FSUN's 17.0x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

FSUN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FSUN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FSUN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $40.00?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FSUN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on FSUN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $46.61 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider Conviction is the strongest RQD pillar at 15/20, with ROIC of 8.5% and FCF yield of 5.8% supporting a cash-generation base.

Don't sleep on FSUN's setup in Financials. Insider Conviction is the strongest RQD pillar at 15/20, with ROIC of 8.5% and FCF yield of 5.8% supporting a cash-generation base.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (63/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — FSUN's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $33.69 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $39.17

The Q3 revenue miss against estimates, flagged RED as RISK WATCH, alongside reported deposit runoff, weighs against the balance-sheet a

I respect the product at FirstSun Capital Bancorp, but the stock at $39.17 is a different story. The Q3 revenue miss against estimates, flagged RED as RISK WATCH, alongside reported deposit runoff, weighs against the balance-sheet and cash-engine case.. FCF yield is 5.8% and RQD sits at 63/100 (C) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

LIVE TAPE