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First National Corporation (FXNC) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$31.36 +2.96% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.47

First National Corporation (FXNC) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $275.4M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FXNC Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FXNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, First National Corporation (NASDAQ: FXNC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $31.36 (+2.96% 1D, market cap $275.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, FXNC ranks #250 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FXNC compare to VABK and LCNB in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FXNC carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.8x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 9.5%. By comparison, VABK (Virginia National Bankshares Corporation) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 14.4x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $279.5M) and LCNB (LCNB Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 12.3x, ROIC 8.4%, cap $281.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, HWBK leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while HWBK leads on capital efficiency (13.7% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FXNC?
β–Ό

Per FXNC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000719402), First National Corporation generated $856.0M in revenue (+1.4% YoY), $17.7M in net income, and $25.1M in free cash flow against $2.04B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.47 (+0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) β€’ 2.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 55.6% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C
025507510065
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ Β· Rk C
Cash (14)Whales (10)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.2% Base Target
$38 Bull$32 Base$25 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE FXNC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FXNC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±5.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY FXNC SCORES 65/100 (C) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.9% FCF Margin ($25.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
57
Grade C$29.44+0.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
60
Grade C$29.68+6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
62
Grade C+$31.45-0.3% Next Q
Current
65
Grade C$31.36+1.3% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C (57) β†’ C (65)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FXNC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, FXNC faces multiple-compression risk if 15.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($30.31) or 200D SMA ($28.88) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($32.35) toward Bear Floor ($25.23).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FXNCβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œFXNC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±5.4%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (FXNC)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for FXNC.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating FXNC & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on FXNC
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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FXNC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.80%⚑ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $30.93H $31.36L $30.46C $31.36VOL 16.7K
RES: $31.88SUP: $28.15SMA50: $30.31SMA200: $28.88
$33.83$31.38$28.93$26.48$24.03RES $31.88SUP $28.15$31.362026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FXNC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ FXNC Butterfly Map β†’ + Track FXNC β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FXNC today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FXNC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FXNC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FXNC)

Financials Rank #250 of 1097 βš”οΈ VABK vs FXNC Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FXNC vs. VABK, LCNB, HWBK, RMBI)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First National Corporation (FXNC) ranks #250 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #830 by equity capitalization ($275.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HWBK leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while HWBK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.7% ROIC and β€” gross margin. VABK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with FXNC at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
FXNC ACTIVE
First National Corporation
C 65/100 15.8x β€” 9.5% +2.96% $275.4M Benchmark Subject
VABK
Virginia National Bankshares Corporation
B 72/100 14.4x β€” 10.5% +2.50% $279.5M /vabk-vs-fxnc β†’
LCNB
LCNB Corporation
C 65/100 12.3x β€” 8.4% +1.42% $281.1M /lcnb-vs-fxnc β†’
HWBK
Hawthorn Bancshares Inc.
C+ 67/100 12.2x β€” 13.7% +0.98% $284.9M /hwbk-vs-fxnc β†’
RMBI
Richmond Mutual Bancorporation Inc.
C 65/100 23.0x β€” 7.9% -0.44% $265.8M /rmbi-vs-fxnc β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000719402 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), First National Corporation (FXNC) reported GAAP revenue of $856.0M (+1.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $844.3M , and +1274.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $17.7M, operating cash flow of $25.1M, and free cash flow of $25.1M (+213.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, FXNC closed FY2025 with $2.04B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $856.0M $17.7M $25.1M $25.1M $2.04B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $844.3M $7.0M -$22.2M -$22.2M $2.01B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $62.3M $9.6M $16.4M $16.4M β€” β€”

3. FXNC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FXNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, First National Corporation (NASDAQ: FXNC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $31.36 (+2.96% 1D, market cap $275.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, FXNC ranks #250 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FXNC compare to VABK and LCNB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FXNC carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.8x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 9.5%. By comparison, VABK (Virginia National Bankshares Corporation) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 14.4x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $279.5M) and LCNB (LCNB Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 12.3x, ROIC 8.4%, cap $281.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, HWBK leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while HWBK leads on capital efficiency (13.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FXNC?

Per FXNC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000719402), First National Corporation generated $856.0M in revenue (+1.4% YoY), $17.7M in net income, and $25.1M in free cash flow against $2.04B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FXNC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FXNC last traded at $31.36 (+2.96% on volume of 12,083 shares), positioning the stock +3.46% above its 50-day simple moving average ($30.31) and +8.59% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.88). Across its 52-week range of $22.40 to $33.24, FXNC sits at the 82.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±5.4% ($29.67 to $33.05).

Direct Sub-Reports: FXNC RQD Cockpit FXNC 12M Forecast FXNC Earnings & Move FXNC Dividends & DRIP FXNC Insiders & 13F FXNC Whale Options FXNC Profit Sankey FXNC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 65/100 (C) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

FXNC β€” First National Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

First National Corporation (FXNC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 65/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $31.36 (+2.96% 1D, market capitalization $275.4M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.5%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of 8.98%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

First National Corporation (FXNC) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, classified under the Major Banks industry..3B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), First National Corporation (FXNC) reported $856.0M in annual revenue (up from $844.3M in FY2024, +1.4% YoY) and $17.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($62.3M revenue, $9.6M net income) through FY2025, FXNC scaled operating cash flow to $25.1M and free cash flow to $25.1M, backed by $2.04B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (C β€’ RQD 65/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 8.98% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $22.40 – $33.24 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 15.8x trailing P/E against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are therefore β€” Sector correlations and second-order bottlenecks are β€” The only structural context provided is the sector (Financials) and industry (Major Banks) classification.

  • Key Question #1: Can FXNC sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and 9.5% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $856.0M and free cash flow of $25.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is FXNC's 14.7x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

FXNC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for First National Corporation (FXNC) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to FXNC Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FXNC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $31.36?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FXNC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on FXNC:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Systematic Momentum Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $38.99 (+28.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Insider conviction (16/20) and a 8.98% FCF yield support the cash-generation case, with a reported $0.13 EPS beat adding near-term mome

Picked up a starter position in FXNC in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $30.46. Insider conviction (16/20) and a 8.98% FCF yield support the cash-generation case, with a reported $0.13 EPS beat adding near-term momentum.. Trading inside a $22.40–$33.24 52-week range with 8.98% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Major Banks multiples expand this quarter.

SectorRotator πŸ‚ BULL

@BearTrap_Alert Fair point on 15.8x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Major Banks. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $24.98 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $30.46

A macro fit score of 12/20 at Beta 1.0 and a missing analyst and holder dataset leave the upside case unverified and sector-sensitive.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on FXNC: A macro fit score of 12/20 at Beta 1.0 and a missing analyst and holder dataset leave the upside case unverified and sector-sensitive.. At 15.8x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Major Banks triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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