Geo Group Inc (GEO) receives a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) and flashes a Red SELL / AVOID rating (47/100 RQD Confidence). Alongside weak composite pillar scores, our SEC filing scanner spotted paper earnings outpacing operating cash flow (+290.0% (NI vs OCF)).
As of 2026-11-03, Geo Group Inc (NYSE: GEO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $27.89 (-2.21% 1D, market cap $3.75B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Active quantitative signal ACCOUNTING_MIRAGE (BEARISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), GEO carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.6%. By comparison, MTH (Meritage Homes Corporation) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 9.3x, ROIC 8.0%, cap $4.20B) and MHO (M/I Homes Inc.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 8.0x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $3.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MHO leads on earnings multiple (8.0x) while SKY leads on capital efficiency (20.8% ROIC).
Per GEO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000923796), Geo Group Inc generated $2.63B in revenue (+8.6% YoY), $254.4M in net income, and -$124.9M in free cash flow against $3.84B in total assets and $1.65B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: SEC Accrual Watch: Headline earnings grew faster than operating cash flow—monitor working-capital conversion. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.2% realized swing band)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Capital intensity & 9.8% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table
While GEO currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($30.39) and Max Pain ($29.28) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $34.83.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Geo Group Inc (GEO) dropped -2.21% to $27.89, trading at 74% of its 52-week range ($12.51 – $33.17). Weak 47/100 RQD score compounded by SEC accrual divergence (+290.0% (NI vs OCF)).
The GEO Group report covering Geo Group Inc (GEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Geo Group Inc (GEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Geo Group Inc (GEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Trefis report covering Geo Group Inc (GEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Geo Group Inc (GEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Geo Group Inc (GEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Geo Group Inc (GEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance Singapore report covering Geo Group Inc (GEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
BOCA RATON, Fla., November 02, 2026--The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) ("GEO" or the "Company") announced today that the City of Big Spring, Texas has entered into a 10-year intergovernmental service agreement with U.S. Im
The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) ("GEO" or the "Company") announced today that the City of Big Spring, Texas has entered into a 10-year intergovernmental service agreement with U.S. Immigration and Customs
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +8.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GEO today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GEO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Geo Group Inc (GEO) ranks #609 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #323 by equity capitalization ($3.75B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MHO leads on earnings valuation at 8.0x trailing P/E, while SKY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.8% ROIC and 26.4% gross margin. SKY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 81/100 (A-) compared with GEO at 47/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEO
ACTIVE
Geo Group Inc | D | 47/100 | 14.8x | — | 6.6% | -2.21% | $3.75B | Benchmark Subject |
| MTH Meritage Homes Corporation | C- | 59/100 | 9.3x | — | 8.0% | +7.04% | $4.20B | /mth-vs-geo → |
| MHO M/I Homes Inc. | D | 48/100 | 8.0x | 23.0% | 12.6% | +3.49% | $3.21B | /mho-vs-geo → |
| SKY Champion Homes Inc. | A- | 81/100 | 21.3x | 26.4% | 20.8% | +4.72% | $4.60B | /sky-vs-geo → |
| CVCO Cavco Industries Inc. | B+ | 80/100 | 22.0x | 23.5% | 17.6% | +7.09% | $4.76B | /cvco-vs-geo → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Geo Group Inc (GEO) reported GAAP revenue of $2.63B (+8.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.42B , and +9.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $254.4M, operating cash flow of $72.6M, and free cash flow of -$124.9M (-176.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, GEO closed FY2025 with $3.84B in total assets against $1.65B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $2.63B | $254.4M | $72.6M | -$124.9M | $3.84B | $1.65B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $2.42B | $32.0M | $242.2M | $163.5M | $3.63B | $1.71B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $2.41B | $107.3M | $277.8M | $277.8M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-03, Geo Group Inc (NYSE: GEO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $27.89 (-2.21% 1D, market cap $3.75B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Active quantitative signal ACCOUNTING_MIRAGE (BEARISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), GEO carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.6%. By comparison, MTH (Meritage Homes Corporation) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 9.3x, ROIC 8.0%, cap $4.20B) and MHO (M/I Homes Inc.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 8.0x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $3.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MHO leads on earnings multiple (8.0x) while SKY leads on capital efficiency (20.8% ROIC).
Per GEO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000923796), Geo Group Inc generated $2.63B in revenue (+8.6% YoY), $254.4M in net income, and -$124.9M in free cash flow against $3.84B in total assets and $1.65B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: SEC Accrual Watch: Headline earnings grew faster than operating cash flow—monitor working-capital conversion. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
GEO last traded at $27.89 (-2.21% on volume of 2,323,042 shares), positioning the stock -8.23% below its 50-day simple moving average ($30.39) and +14.44% above its 200-day simple moving average ($24.37). Across its 52-week range of $12.51 to $33.17, GEO sits at the 74.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.2% ($25.60 to $30.18).
Geo Group Inc (GEO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 47/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $27.89 (-2.21% 1D, market capitalization $3.75B).
Geo Group Inc (GEO) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Homebuilding industry. —: the specific products, customers, and revenue mix. The source data reports a gross margin of 0% and an operating margin of 9.8% but does not describe how the company generates revenue beyond the sector classification.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Geo Group Inc (GEO) reported $2.63B in annual revenue (up from $2.42B in FY2024, +8.6% YoY) and $254.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.41B revenue, $107.3M net income) through FY2025, GEO scaled operating cash flow to $72.6M and free cash flow to -$124.9M, backed by $3.84B in total assets against $1.65B in total debt.
— for upstream and downstream dependencies: the Butterfly graph lists supply_chain as NONE and an empty set of butterfly links. Sector and industry are recorded as Consumer Discretionary and Homebuilding respectively, but no sector correlations are supplied. The one second-order item the source data does support is the accrual divergence flagged above: if reported earnings are not converting to operating cash flow, the 2nd-order risk is that working-capital build (receivables and non-cash current assets) absorbs cash and may need to reverse. Investors should watch whether the upcoming 10-Q confirms cash realization or extends the gap.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Geo Group Inc (GEO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
The GEO Group report covering Geo Group Inc (GEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Geo Group Inc (GEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Geo Group Inc (GEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Trefis report covering Geo Group Inc (GEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Geo Group Inc (GEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Geo Group Inc (GEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Geo Group Inc (GEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance Singapore report covering Geo Group Inc (GEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Per the news wire, a $950 Million asset sale and a $1.25 Billion buyback authorization could return significant capital to shareholders.. When you look under the hood at GEO, Fundamental Cash Engine is 7/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 6.6% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (11/20) has been quietly accumulating below $33.17. My 12M target is $36.22.
@MultipleCompression Shorting a 11/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $28.52 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.
Careful chasing GEO at $28.52. Per the Butterfly graph, net income grew +220.0% while operating cash flow fell -70.0%, a 290.0% cash conversion gap with a severity-91 bearish accrual flag.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 9.8%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $21.39 on multiple compression.
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