ROARABLE
FREE $100K
My Trading Account →
▾
Trading Profile Active
Active Trader
Verified Trader
⚡ My $100K Trading Account → ★ My Saved Watchlist →
🟢 My $100K Account → Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Health Care / GERN / news
IRWD (59) ACRS (19) CLYM (28) STTK (29) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Why GERN Stock surged +3.88% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$0.93 +3.88% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.93

Geron Corporation (GERN) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $574.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on GERN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GERN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Geron Corporation (NASDAQ: GERN) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $0.93 (+3.88% 1D, market cap $574.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, GERN ranks #856 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GERN compare to IRWD and ACRS in the Health Care sector?
▼

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), GERN carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -20.2%. By comparison, IRWD (Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Class A)) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 24.9x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $578.3M) and ACRS (Aclaris Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (19/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $584.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IRWD leads on earnings multiple (24.9x) while IRWD leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GERN?
▼

Per GERN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000886744), Geron Corporation generated $192.0M in revenue (-60.5% YoY), -$83.5M in net income, and -$111.0M in free cash flow against $570.5M in total assets and $119.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.93 (+0.51%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510028
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (6)Whales (3)SEC (10)Macro (6)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-14% Base Target
$2 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE GERN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GERN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GERN SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (36% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+6/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
36
Grade E$1.20+3.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
33
Grade E$1.24-7.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
31
Grade E$1.15-19.1% Next Q
Current
28
Grade E$0.93-10% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (36) → E (28)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GERN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GERN currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.27) and Max Pain ($0.98) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2.11.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GERN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GERN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 28%NO 72%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why GERN Stock surged +3.88% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Geron Corporation (GERN) surged +3.88% to $0.93, trading at 8% of its 52-week range ($0.84 – $2.01). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-20% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 8% of its 52-week range ($0.84 – $2.01) with RSI-14 at 27.4 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $0.93 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live GERN Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREChartMill • 1d ago
GERN News | GERON CORP (NASDAQ:GERN)

ChartMill report covering Geron Corporation (GERN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GERN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of GERN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
GERN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -40.76%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $0.94H $0.94L $0.89C $0.93VOL 18.81M
RES: $1.56SUP: $0.82SMA50: $1.27SMA200: $1.42
$1.79$1.53$1.28$1.02$0.76RES $1.56SUP $0.82$0.932026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GERN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GERN Butterfly Map → + Track GERN →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -60.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GERN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GERN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GERN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GERN)

Health Care Rank #856 of 1015 ⚔️ IRWD vs GERN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (GERN vs. IRWD, ACRS, CLYM, STTK)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Geron Corporation (GERN) ranks #856 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #420 by equity capitalization ($574.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IRWD leads on earnings valuation at 24.9x trailing P/E, while IRWD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. IRWD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with GERN at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
GERN ACTIVE
Geron Corporation
E 28/100 — — -20.2% +3.88% $574.6M Benchmark Subject
IRWD
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Class A)
C- 59/100 24.9x — 85.0% -1.14% $578.3M /irwd-vs-gern →
ACRS
Aclaris Therapeutics Inc.
E 19/100 — 73.3% -35.0% -4.28% $584.4M /acrs-vs-gern →
CLYM
Climb Bio Inc.
E 28/100 — — -35.0% -4.98% $588.7M /clym-vs-gern →
STTK
Shattuck Labs Inc.
E 29/100 — — -35.0% -4.32% $558.0M /sttk-vs-gern →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000886744 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Geron Corporation (GERN) reported GAAP revenue of $192.0M (-60.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $486.4M , and +80928.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$83.5M, operating cash flow of -$111.0M, and free cash flow of -$111.0M (+49.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, GERN closed FY2025 with $570.5M in total assets against $119.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $192.0M -$83.5M -$111.0M -$111.0M $570.5M $119.5M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $486.4M -$174.6M -$218.6M -$219.3M $593.8M $118.5M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $237.0K -$184.1M -$167.7M -$167.7M — —

3. GERN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GERN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Geron Corporation (NASDAQ: GERN) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $0.93 (+3.88% 1D, market cap $574.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, GERN ranks #856 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GERN compare to IRWD and ACRS in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), GERN carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -20.2%. By comparison, IRWD (Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Class A)) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 24.9x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $578.3M) and ACRS (Aclaris Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (19/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $584.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IRWD leads on earnings multiple (24.9x) while IRWD leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GERN?

Per GERN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000886744), Geron Corporation generated $192.0M in revenue (-60.5% YoY), -$83.5M in net income, and -$111.0M in free cash flow against $570.5M in total assets and $119.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GERN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GERN last traded at $0.93 (+3.88% on volume of 13,797,265 shares), positioning the stock -26.77% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.27) and -34.51% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.42). Across its 52-week range of $0.84 to $2.01, GERN sits at the 7.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 27.4 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $1.05).

Direct Sub-Reports: GERN RQD Cockpit GERN 12M Forecast GERN Earnings & Move GERN Dividends & DRIP GERN Insiders & 13F GERN Whale Options GERN Profit Sankey GERN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 28/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

GERN — Geron Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Geron Corporation (GERN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 28/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $0.93 (+3.88% 1D, market capitalization $574.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -20.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -18.27%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.53x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Geron Corporation (GERN) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry, and profile. The profile does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model. The financials report revenue of — for FY 2025 and FY 2024 and $0.2M for FY 2023, indicating minimal reported revenue in the period shown.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Geron Corporation (GERN) reported $192.0M in annual revenue (up from $486.4M in FY2024, -60.5% YoY) and -$83.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($237.0K revenue, -$184.1M net income) through FY2025, GERN scaled operating cash flow to -$111.0M and free cash flow to -$111.0M, backed by $570.5M in total assets against $119.5M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 28/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -18.27% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.84 – $2.01 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the provided sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can GERN sustain or expand its — operating margin and -20.2% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $192.0M and free cash flow of -$111.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $119.5M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is GERN's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

GERN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Geron Corporation (GERN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to GERN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

GERN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $0.93?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON GERN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on GERN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.09 (+22.5%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Balance sheet is the strongest RQD pillar at 10 / 20, with FY 2025 cash of $77.6M against debt of $119.5M and Altman Z of 2.5.

Picked up a starter position in GERN in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $0.89. Balance sheet is the strongest RQD pillar at 10 / 20, with FY 2025 cash of $77.6M against debt of $119.5M and Altman Z of 2.5.. Trading inside a $0.84–$2.01 52-week range with -18.27% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations multiples expand this quarter.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@QuantViper Agree on the RQD 28/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $0.89 and keeping dry powder in case we test $0.83.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.74 (-16.9%)
Spot @ $0.89

ROIC of -20.2%, FCF yield of -18.27%, and reported net losses in every period shown (FY 2025 net income -$83.5M) with zero reported rev

ROIC of -20.2%, FCF yield of -18.27%, and reported net losses in every period shown (FY 2025 net income -$83.5M) with zero reported revenue.. Look at the math on GERN: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -20.2% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $0.78 before getting long.

LIVE TAPE