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Stock Ratings / Communication Services / GRPN / forecast
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Groupon Inc. (GRPN) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$15.58 -1.08% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.52

Groupon Inc. (GRPN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $633.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on GRPN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GRPN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Groupon Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $15.58 (-1.08% 1D, market cap $633.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, GRPN ranks #69 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GRPN compare to MNTN and CRTO in the Communication Services sector?
▼

Within the Communication Services sector (Advertising), GRPN carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 90.8%, and ROIC of 56.5%. By comparison, MNTN (MNTN Inc. (Class A)) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 19.9%, cap $703.9M) and CRTO (Criteo S.A.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 4.9x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $733.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CRTO leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while GRPN leads on capital efficiency (56.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GRPN?
▼

Per GRPN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001490281), Groupon Inc. generated $498.4M in revenue (+1.2% YoY), -$83.3M in net income, and $49.9M in free cash flow against $670.4M in total assets and $309.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (90.8% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.52 (-0.38%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 10% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510046
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk D-
Cash (15)Whales (4)SEC (8)Macro (7)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target
$31 Bull$15 Base$12 Bear
📬 FREE GRPN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GRPN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GRPN SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (33% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 10% FCF Margin ($49.9M FCF) & 90.8% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
54
Grade C-$17.76-8.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
51
Grade C-$16.30+0.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
49
Grade D$16.42-5.1% Next Q
Current
46
Grade D$15.58-6.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (54) → D (46)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GRPN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GRPN currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Strong cash generator (90.8% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($18.43) and Max Pain ($16.36) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $31.39.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GRPN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GRPN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your GRPN Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $15.58: 641.8 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $11.50
$7,381
$-2,619 (-26.2%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $14.74
$9,461
$-539 (-5.4%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $31.39
$20,148
+$10,148 (+101.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1574%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$3069%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$1358%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GRPN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of GRPN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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GRPN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.32%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-04O $15.75H $15.75L $15.58C $15.58VOL 802.0K
RES: $18.20SUP: $19.03SMA50: $18.43SMA200: $17.65
$31.11$26.08$21.05$16.02$10.99RES $18.20SUP $19.03$15.582026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GRPN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GRPN Butterfly Map → + Track GRPN →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
17.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GRPN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GRPN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GRPN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GRPN)

Communication Services Rank #69 of 132 ⚔️ MNTN vs GRPN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Communication Services Peer Comparison (GRPN vs. MNTN, CRTO, IBTA, ANGI)

Industry: Advertising (23 Tracked Issuers)

Across 132 tracked Communication Services securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Groupon Inc. (GRPN) ranks #69 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #73 by equity capitalization ($633.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CRTO leads on earnings valuation at 4.9x trailing P/E, while GRPN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 56.5% ROIC and 90.8% gross margin. IBTA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with GRPN at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
GRPN ACTIVE
Groupon Inc.
D 46/100 — 90.8% 56.5% -1.08% $633.6M Benchmark Subject
MNTN
MNTN Inc. (Class A)
C- 60/100 — 77.2% 19.9% +0.64% $703.9M /mntn-vs-grpn →
CRTO
Criteo S.A.
D+ 52/100 4.9x 54.0% 19.8% +2.18% $733.5M /crto-vs-grpn →
IBTA
Ibotta Inc. (Class A)
C+ 67/100 — 79.2% -0.7% +2.98% $1.16B /ibta-vs-grpn →
ANGI
Angi Inc. (Class A)
D+ 52/100 5.6x 95.4% 4.6% -3.34% $234.8M /angi-vs-grpn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001490281 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Groupon Inc. (GRPN) reported GAAP revenue of $498.4M (+1.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $492.6M , and -3.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$83.3M, operating cash flow of $64.5M, and free cash flow of $49.9M (+23.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, GRPN closed FY2025 with $670.4M in total assets against $309.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $498.4M -$83.3M $64.5M $49.9M $670.4M $309.2M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $492.6M -$56.5M $55.9M $40.6M $612.7M $246.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $514.9M -$52.9M -$78.0M -$78.0M — —

3. GRPN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GRPN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Groupon Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $15.58 (-1.08% 1D, market cap $633.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, GRPN ranks #69 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GRPN compare to MNTN and CRTO in the Communication Services sector?

Within the Communication Services sector (Advertising), GRPN carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 90.8%, and ROIC of 56.5%. By comparison, MNTN (MNTN Inc. (Class A)) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 19.9%, cap $703.9M) and CRTO (Criteo S.A.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 4.9x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $733.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CRTO leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while GRPN leads on capital efficiency (56.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GRPN?

Per GRPN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001490281), Groupon Inc. generated $498.4M in revenue (+1.2% YoY), -$83.3M in net income, and $49.9M in free cash flow against $670.4M in total assets and $309.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (90.8% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GRPN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GRPN last traded at $15.58 (-1.08% on volume of 801,968 shares), positioning the stock -15.46% below its 50-day simple moving average ($18.43) and -11.73% below its 200-day simple moving average ($17.65). Across its 52-week range of $9.17 to $29.90, GRPN sits at the 30.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.8% ($14.05 to $17.11).

Direct Sub-Reports: GRPN RQD Cockpit GRPN 12M Forecast GRPN Earnings & Move GRPN Dividends & DRIP GRPN Insiders & 13F GRPN Whale Options GRPN Profit Sankey GRPN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 46/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

GRPN — Groupon Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Groupon Inc. (GRPN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 46/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $15.58 (-1.08% 1D, market capitalization $633.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 56.5%, gross margin of 90.8%, operating margin of 4.7%, and free cash flow yield of 7.54%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Groupon Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed company classified in the Communication Services sector and the Advertising industry..7B. The company reported revenue of $498.4M for FY 2025.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Groupon Inc. (GRPN) reported $498.4M in annual revenue (up from $492.6M in FY2024, +1.2% YoY) and -$83.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($514.9M revenue, -$52.9M net income) through FY2025, GRPN scaled operating cash flow to $64.5M and free cash flow to $49.9M, backed by $670.4M in total assets against $309.2M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 46/100): Strong cash generator (90.8% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Free cash flow yield of 7.54% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $9.17 – $29.90 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh current valuation and 18.7x EV/EBITDA against 4.7% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector context is the classification of Communication Services / Advertising and a beta of 1.0.

  • Key Question #1: Can GRPN sustain or expand its 4.7% operating margin and 56.5% ROIC against Advertising peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $498.4M and free cash flow of $49.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $309.2M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is GRPN's equity valuation to Communication Services capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

GRPN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Groupon Inc. (GRPN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to GRPN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

GRPN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $15.58?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON GRPN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on GRPN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $19.69 (+25.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

ROIC of 56.5% and an FCF yield of 7.54% are the strongest inputs in the RQD rating, indicating high cash-return efficiency relative to

Don't sleep on GRPN's setup in Communication Services. ROIC of 56.5% and an FCF yield of 7.54% are the strongest inputs in the RQD rating, indicating high cash-return efficiency relative to market value.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (46/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@MidwestValue Agree on the RQD 46/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $15.75 and keeping dry powder in case we test $14.65.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $12.60 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $15.75

An Altman Z-Score of 0.2 and a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signal forensic balance-sheet stress, paired with a 4/20 whale flow pillar.

Fading this rally in GRPN at $15.75. An Altman Z-Score of 0.2 and a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signal forensic balance-sheet stress, paired with a 4/20 whale flow pillar.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $15.75 (52-wk range $9.17–$29.90), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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