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Why HBT Stock surged +2.71% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$37.51 +2.71% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.62

HBT Financial Inc. (HBT) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.36B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HBT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, HBT Financial Inc. (NASDAQ: HBT) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $37.51 (+2.71% 1D, market cap $1.36B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HBT ranks #137 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HBT compare to FMBH and WABC in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), HBT carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.5%. By comparison, FMBH (First Mid Bancshares Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 14.8x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $1.37B) and WABC (Westamerica Bancorporation) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $1.42B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WABC leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while BHRB leads on capital efficiency (13.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HBT?
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Per HBT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000775215), HBT Financial Inc. generated $2.13B in revenue (+0.8% YoY), $77.0M in net income, and $85.1M in free cash flow against $5.07B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.62 (+0.30%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B · Rk C
Cash (13)Whales (14)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5% Base Target
$46 Bull$39 Base$31 Bear
📬 FREE HBT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HBT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HBT SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (20% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.8% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (62) create a -7 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$34.93+1.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$35.30+3.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$36.40+3% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$37.51+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HBT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, HBT faces multiple-compression risk if 17.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($35.99) or 200D SMA ($31.35) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($39.37) toward Bear Floor ($30.71).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HBT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HBT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why HBT Stock surged +2.71% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

HBT Financial Inc. (HBT) surged +2.71% to $37.51, trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($22.37 – $37.71). Solid steady margins (13% return on capital), mixed timing at 17x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($22.37 – $37.71) with RSI-14 at 62 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.8% around $37.51 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $85.1M annual free cash flow.
Live HBT Headlines & Catalysts
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (HBT Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
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HBT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +34.93%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-04O $36.52H $37.51L $36.52C $37.51VOL 88.1K
RES: $37.74SUP: $34.52SMA50: $35.99SMA200: $31.35
$38.52$35.15$31.78$28.41$25.04RES $37.74SUP $34.52$37.512026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HBT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HBT Butterfly Map → + Track HBT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
10.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +0.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HBT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HBT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HBT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HBT)

Financials Rank #137 of 1097 ⚔️ FMBH vs HBT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HBT vs. FMBH, WABC, PEBO, BHRB)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, HBT Financial Inc. (HBT) ranks #137 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #505 by equity capitalization ($1.36B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WABC leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while BHRB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.7% ROIC and — gross margin. HBT currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HBT ACTIVE
HBT Financial Inc.
C+ 69/100 17.4x — 12.5% +2.71% $1.36B Benchmark Subject
FMBH
First Mid Bancshares Inc.
C+ 66/100 14.8x — 9.6% +2.12% $1.37B /fmbh-vs-hbt →
WABC
Westamerica Bancorporation
C+ 67/100 12.2x — 12.4% +1.64% $1.42B /wabc-vs-hbt →
PEBO
Peoples Bancorp Inc.
C+ 69/100 13.1x — 10.5% +3.54% $1.42B /pebo-vs-hbt →
BHRB
Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.
C 64/100 12.2x — 13.7% +2.23% $1.45B /bhrb-vs-hbt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000775215 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), HBT Financial Inc. (HBT) reported GAAP revenue of $2.13B (+0.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.11B , and +618.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $77.0M, operating cash flow of $85.1M, and free cash flow of $85.1M (-4.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, HBT closed FY2025 with $5.07B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.13B $77.0M $85.1M $85.1M $5.07B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.11B $71.8M $89.4M $89.4M $5.03B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $296.3M $65.8M $65.8M $65.8M — —

3. HBT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HBT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, HBT Financial Inc. (NASDAQ: HBT) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $37.51 (+2.71% 1D, market cap $1.36B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HBT ranks #137 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HBT compare to FMBH and WABC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), HBT carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.5%. By comparison, FMBH (First Mid Bancshares Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 14.8x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $1.37B) and WABC (Westamerica Bancorporation) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $1.42B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WABC leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while BHRB leads on capital efficiency (13.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HBT?

Per HBT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000775215), HBT Financial Inc. generated $2.13B in revenue (+0.8% YoY), $77.0M in net income, and $85.1M in free cash flow against $5.07B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HBT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HBT last traded at $37.51 (+2.71% on volume of 88,071 shares), positioning the stock +4.22% above its 50-day simple moving average ($35.99) and +19.65% above its 200-day simple moving average ($31.35). Across its 52-week range of $22.37 to $37.71, HBT sits at the 98.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($35.71 to $39.31).

Direct Sub-Reports: HBT RQD Cockpit HBT 12M Forecast HBT Earnings & Move HBT Dividends & DRIP HBT Insiders & 13F HBT Whale Options HBT Profit Sankey HBT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HBT — HBT Financial Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

HBT Financial Inc. (HBT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 69/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $37.51 (+2.71% 1D, market capitalization $1.36B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 6.36%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

HBT Financial Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Major Banks industry. The sector and industry classification is the only business description the source provides.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), HBT Financial Inc. (HBT) reported $2.13B in annual revenue (up from $2.11B in FY2024, +0.8% YoY) and $77.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($296.3M revenue, $65.8M net income) through FY2025, HBT scaled operating cash flow to $85.1M and free cash flow to $85.1M, backed by $5.07B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 69/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 6.36% and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $22.37 – $37.71 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 17.4x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector context provided is the Financials / Major Banks classification, and the source does not map any linked issuers or macro sensitivities beyond the beta of 1.0.

  • Key Question #1: Can HBT sustain or expand its — operating margin and 12.5% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.13B and free cash flow of $85.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HBT's 16.2x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HBT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for HBT Financial Inc. (HBT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HBT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HBT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $37.51?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HBT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HBT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $43.82 (+20.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider-flow pillar scores 16/20 and the stock trades at 16.2x forward earnings with a 6.36% FCF yield.

Long HBT at $36.52 targeting $43.82. Insider-flow pillar scores 16/20 and the stock trades at 16.2x forward earnings with a 6.36% FCF yield.. Institutional whale score is 14/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $22.37 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@BreakoutHunter Agree on the RQD 69/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $36.52 and keeping dry powder in case we test $33.96.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $27.39 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $36.52

Revenue and margins are reported as $0.0M and 0%, which conflicts with reported net income and cannot be reconciled from the source.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on HBT: Revenue and margins are reported as $0.0M and 0%, which conflicts with reported net income and cannot be reconciled from the source.. At 17.4x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Major Banks triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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