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Why HFWA Stock surged +2.67% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$29.23 +2.67% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.31

Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.16B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HFWA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Heritage Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: HFWA) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $29.23 (+2.67% 1D, market cap $1.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HFWA ranks #308 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HFWA compare to NBBK and SMBC in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Banks), HFWA carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.3%. By comparison, NBBK (NB Bancorp Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 19.7x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $969.7M) and SMBC (Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc.) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 13.5x, ROIC 10.3%, cap $778.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCBX leads on earnings multiple (10.2x) while TCBX leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HFWA?
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Per HFWA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001046025), Heritage Financial Corporation generated $2.93B in revenue (-2.0% YoY), $67.5M in net income, and $85.7M in free cash flow against $6.97B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.31 (+0.29%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510063
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C · Rk C
Cash (12)Whales (11)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target
$35 Bull$30 Base$23 Bear
📬 FREE HFWA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HFWA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HFWA SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
55
Grade C$27.09+2.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$27.85+4.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
60
Grade C$29.11+0.4% Next Q
Current
63
Grade C$29.23+0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HFWA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, HFWA faces multiple-compression risk if 17.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($28.24) or 200D SMA ($27.83) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($29.89) toward Bear Floor ($23.31).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HFWA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HFWA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why HFWA Stock surged +2.67% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) surged +2.67% to $29.23, trading at 80% of its 52-week range ($21.32 – $31.25). Solid steady margins (7% return on capital), mixed timing at 18x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 80% of its 52-week range ($21.32 – $31.25) with RSI-14 at 52.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.1% around $29.23 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $85.7M annual free cash flow.
Live HFWA Headlines & Catalysts
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (HFWA Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
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HFWA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.26%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $28.91H $29.23L $28.47C $29.23VOL 315.3K
RES: $29.52SUP: $25.92SMA50: $28.24SMA200: $27.83
$31.70$29.84$27.97$26.11$24.24RES $29.52SUP $25.92$29.232026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HFWA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HFWA Butterfly Map → + Track HFWA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
10.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HFWA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HFWA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HFWA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HFWA)

Financials Rank #308 of 1097 ⚔️ NBBK vs HFWA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HFWA vs. NBBK, SMBC, TCBX, HIFS)

Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) ranks #308 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #523 by equity capitalization ($1.16B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TCBX leads on earnings valuation at 10.2x trailing P/E, while TCBX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and — gross margin. SMBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with HFWA at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HFWA ACTIVE
Heritage Financial Corporation
C 63/100 17.5x — 7.3% +2.67% $1.16B Benchmark Subject
NBBK
NB Bancorp Inc.
C 63/100 19.7x — 5.9% +1.76% $969.7M /nbbk-vs-hfwa →
SMBC
Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc.
C 64/100 13.5x — 10.3% +2.21% $778.6M /smbc-vs-hfwa →
TCBX
Third Coast Bancshares Inc.
D+ 55/100 10.2x — 12.5% +1.96% $664.4M /tcbx-vs-hfwa →
HIFS
Hingham Institution for Savings
D+ 53/100 — — — +3.10% $646.6M /hifs-vs-hfwa →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001046025 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) reported GAAP revenue of $2.93B (-2.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.98B , and +603.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $67.5M, operating cash flow of $94.8M, and free cash flow of $85.7M (+40.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, HFWA closed FY2025 with $6.97B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.93B $67.5M $94.8M $85.7M $6.97B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.98B $43.3M $64.5M $61.0M $7.11B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $416.2M $61.8M $109.5M $109.5M — —

3. HFWA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HFWA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Heritage Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: HFWA) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $29.23 (+2.67% 1D, market cap $1.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HFWA ranks #308 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HFWA compare to NBBK and SMBC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Banks), HFWA carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.3%. By comparison, NBBK (NB Bancorp Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 19.7x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $969.7M) and SMBC (Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc.) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 13.5x, ROIC 10.3%, cap $778.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCBX leads on earnings multiple (10.2x) while TCBX leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HFWA?

Per HFWA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001046025), Heritage Financial Corporation generated $2.93B in revenue (-2.0% YoY), $67.5M in net income, and $85.7M in free cash flow against $6.97B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HFWA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HFWA last traded at $29.23 (+2.67% on volume of 313,068 shares), positioning the stock +3.51% above its 50-day simple moving average ($28.24) and +5.03% above its 200-day simple moving average ($27.83). Across its 52-week range of $21.32 to $31.25, HFWA sits at the 79.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($28.03 to $30.43).

Direct Sub-Reports: HFWA RQD Cockpit HFWA 12M Forecast HFWA Earnings & Move HFWA Dividends & DRIP HFWA Insiders & 13F HFWA Whale Options HFWA Profit Sankey HFWA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HFWA — Heritage Financial Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 63/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $29.23 (+2.67% 1D, market capitalization $1.16B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 7.3%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 7.24%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (11/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Banks industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $1.16B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 7.3% (free cash flow yield of 7.24%). Within the Banks peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) reported $2.93B in annual revenue (up from $2.98B in FY2024, -2.0% YoY) and $67.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($416.2M revenue, $61.8M net income) through FY2025, HFWA scaled operating cash flow to $94.8M and free cash flow to $85.7M, backed by $6.97B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 63/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 7.24% and institutional whale pillar of 11/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $21.32 – $31.25 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 17.5x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— Investors should note that second-order sector ripples cannot be mapped from the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can HFWA sustain or expand its — operating margin and 7.3% ROIC against Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.93B and free cash flow of $85.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HFWA's 16.3x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HFWA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HFWA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HFWA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $29.23?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HFWA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HFWA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $33.31 (+17.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider Conviction is the highest RQD pillar at 15/20, backed by SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, while FY 2025 net incom

The street is overcomplicating Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA). Insider Conviction is the highest RQD pillar at 15/20, backed by SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, while FY 2025 net income rose to $67.5M from $43.3M.. With an RQD score of 63/100 (C) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $30.75.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — HFWA's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $24.48 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $28.47

Valuation & margin reality check on HFWA at $28.47 before chasing here

Valuation & margin reality check on HFWA at $28.47 before chasing here. Look at the math on HFWA: paying 17.5x trailing P/E for 7.3% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Banks demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $25.05 before getting long.

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