Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$10.23 -5.28% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.11

Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $1.18B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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As of 2026-11-02, Harmonic Inc. (NASDAQ: HLIT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $10.23 (-5.28% 1D, market cap $1.18B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, HLIT ranks #357 in composite RQD confidence.

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πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HLIT compare to VISN and UMAC in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Radio And Television Broadcasting And Communications Equipment), HLIT carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 48.5%, and ROIC of 3.0%. By comparison, VISN (Vistance Networks Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.7%, cap $1.54B) and UMAC (Unusual Machines Inc.) posts a E grade (23/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -27.7%, cap $863.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GILT leads on earnings multiple (29.3x) while GILT leads on capital efficiency (5.6% ROIC).

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πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HLIT?
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Per HLIT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000851310), Harmonic Inc. generated $360.5M in revenue (-26.2% YoY), $1.2M in net income, and $96.9M in free cash flow against $718.5M in total assets and $109.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.11 (-1.14%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) β€’ 26.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 49.3% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D
025507510050
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D Β· Rk D
Cash (9)Whales (6)SEC (12)Macro (8)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
$19 Bull$10 Base$8 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE HLIT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HLIT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±8.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY HLIT SCORES 50/100 (D) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 7/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
58
Grade C$10.48+3.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
55
Grade C$10.83-5.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$10.20+0.3% Next Q
Current
50
Grade D$10.23-1.4% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C (58) β†’ D (50)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HLIT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While HLIT currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.14) and Max Pain ($10.74) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $18.56.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HLITβ€’ $4.8M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œHLIT Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL β€’ FY 2025 (10-K)

How HLIT Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$96.9M (26.9% FCF Margin)
Revenue$360.5MGross Profit $174.7M (48.5%)Cost of Sales $185.8MOp Profit $14.1M (3.9%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $160.7MNet Profit$1.2M (0.3%)Tax/Other $12.9M

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

β–  Revenueβ–  Net Profitβ–  Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $388.5M
FY24
Rev $488.2M
FY25
Rev $360.5M
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$360.5M48.5%3.9%$1.2M$96.9M3%
FY 2024$488.2M49.2%15.3%$39.2M$52.7M12.4%
FY 2023$388.5M48.5%7.7%$84.0M$7.1M3%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HLIT)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of HLIT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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HLIT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.31%⚑ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $10.73H $10.80L $10.23C $10.23VOL 1.26M
RES: $10.67SUP: $9.52SMA50: $11.14SMA200: $11.59
$18.24$15.92$13.61$11.29$8.97RES $10.67SUP $9.52$10.232026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HLIT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
42.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -26.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HLIT today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HLIT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HLIT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HLIT)

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (HLIT vs. VISN, UMAC, BKSY, GILT)

Industry: Radio And Television Broadcasting And Communications Equipment (21 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) ranks #357 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #342 by equity capitalization ($1.18B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GILT leads on earnings valuation at 29.3x trailing P/E, while GILT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.6% ROIC and 29.5% gross margin. HLIT currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HLIT ACTIVE
Harmonic Inc.
D 50/100 β€” 48.5% 3.0% -5.28% $1.18B Benchmark Subject
VISN
Vistance Networks Inc.
E 34/100 β€” β€” 0.7% -2.24% $1.54B /visn-vs-hlit β†’
UMAC
Unusual Machines Inc.
E 23/100 β€” 34.9% -27.7% -10.13% $863.2M /umac-vs-hlit β†’
BKSY
BlackSky Technology Inc. (Class A)
E 18/100 β€” β€” -15.1% -6.93% $785.8M /bksy-vs-hlit β†’
GILT
Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd.
D- 41/100 29.3x 29.5% 5.6% -3.35% $607.5M /gilt-vs-hlit β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000851310

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) reported GAAP revenue of $360.5M (-26.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $488.2M , and -7.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.2M, operating cash flow of $108.0M, and free cash flow of $96.9M (+83.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, HLIT closed FY2025 with $718.5M in total assets against $109.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $360.5M $1.2M $108.0M $96.9M $718.5M $109.1M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $488.2M $39.2M $61.9M $52.7M $796.5M $112.1M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $388.5M $84.0M $7.1M $7.1M β€” β€”

3. HLIT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HLIT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Harmonic Inc. (NASDAQ: HLIT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $10.23 (-5.28% 1D, market cap $1.18B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, HLIT ranks #357 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HLIT compare to VISN and UMAC in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Radio And Television Broadcasting And Communications Equipment), HLIT carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 48.5%, and ROIC of 3.0%. By comparison, VISN (Vistance Networks Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.7%, cap $1.54B) and UMAC (Unusual Machines Inc.) posts a E grade (23/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -27.7%, cap $863.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GILT leads on earnings multiple (29.3x) while GILT leads on capital efficiency (5.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HLIT?

Per HLIT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000851310), Harmonic Inc. generated $360.5M in revenue (-26.2% YoY), $1.2M in net income, and $96.9M in free cash flow against $718.5M in total assets and $109.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HLIT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HLIT last traded at $10.23 (-5.28% on volume of 1,333,548 shares), positioning the stock -8.17% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.14) and -11.73% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.59). Across its 52-week range of $8.47 to $17.68, HLIT sits at the 19.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±8.4% ($9.37 to $11.09).

HLIT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

How profitable is Harmonic Inc. (HLIT)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), HLIT converted $360.5M of revenue into a 48.5% gross margin, 3.9% operating margin, and $96.9M in free cash flow (26.9% FCF margin).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 50/100 (D) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

HLIT β€” Harmonic Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:30:21Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, HLIT scores 50 out of 100, earning a letter grade of D and the verdict "Roarable Sell β€” Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 9 of 20 (ROIC 3%; FCF yield 8.23%); Whale 13F Flow at 6 of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 15 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 8 of 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 12 of 20 (Altman Z 0.2; Piotroski F 7/9; Debt/Equity 0.28). The two weakest pillars, Cash Engine and Macro Regime Fit, sit well below half weight, while Insider Conviction is the strongest relative pillar. For a prospective investor, the upside case rests on the 8.23% FCF yield and the 7 of 9 Piotroski reading, both of which suggest cash generation and balance-sheet hygiene exceed what the 3% ROIC implies. The valuation tradeoff is that the EV/EBITDA of 49.5 is elevated relative to the thin 3.9% operating margin and 0.3% net margin, so the market is paying a high multiple for earnings that are currently small. The Altman Z of 0.2 is a distress-zone reading that argues for caution regardless of the favorable Piotroski score. Overall, the rating frames HLIT as a name where cash flow and insider activity offer partial support against weak returns, a low Z-score, and a stock priced at a high enterprise multiple.

Business

Harmonic Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Technology sector and the Radio And Television Broadcasting And Communications Equipment industry, per the company profile. The profile describes the company as operating in that industry with a market capitalization of $1.2B. Specific product lines, customer segments, and revenue-model details are not available in source data.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$360.5M$14.1M$1.2MN/A$96.9M$124.1M$109.1M
FY 2024$488.2M$74.7M$39.2MN/A$52.7M$101.5M$112.1M
FY 2023$388.5M$30.0M$84.0MN/A$7.1MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue declined from $488.2M in FY 2024 to $360.5M in FY 2025, and net income fell from $39.2M to $1.2M over the same span, while free cash flow rose to $96.9M. Per the market data, gross margin is 48.5%, operating margin 3.9%, and net margin 0.3%, with ROIC at 3%. The Roarable RQD rating cites an Altman Z-Score of 0.2, a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.28. Cash of $124.1M against debt of $109.1M at FY 2025 indicates a net cash position on the reported balance sheet.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts feed, six items relate to HLIT, all tagged with a YELLOW light and MARKET WIRE impact label. Headlines reference a Cyprus operator selecting software for gigabit internet with room for faster service later, a Cablenet broadband win discussed in a valuation piece suggesting undervaluation, a Comcast-backed Recon Fiber monitoring launch described as potentially game-changing, a total cash dividends paid item, and generic stock forecast and analyst prediction pieces. Risk watch items are not separately itemized in source data. The butterfly supply-chain graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply-chain field is "NONE," with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals recorded. Upstream and downstream dependency mapping is therefore not available in source data. Sector correlation metrics beyond beta of 1.0 are not available in source data. Second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the provided sources. The news headlines referencing broadband operator deployments and fiber monitoring suggest end-market exposure to telecom and cable infrastructure, but the source data does not establish formal supplier or customer linkages.

Open Questions

  • What drove the decline in FY 2025 revenue and net income relative to FY 2024, and is the cash flow increase durable?
  • Which specific insider and institutional transactions underlie the Insider Conviction and Whale 13F Flow pillar scores?
  • What are the consensus analyst rating and price targets, given that analyst coverage is absent from the source data?
  • What are the trailing and forward earnings figures, since P/E and EPS are not provided?
  • What is the company's exposure and dependency structure within the telecom and broadband supply chain?

HLIT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to HLIT Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HLIT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $10.23?

πŸ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HLIT 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HLIT:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk βš–οΈ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $11.66 (+8.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is HLIT (D β€’ RQD 50/100) a Buy at $10.80?

Welcome to the HLIT (Harmonic Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 50/100 (Roarable Sell β€” Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Radio And Television Broadcasting And Communications Equipment. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.86 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $10.80

Pump the brakes on HLIT β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on HLIT, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 48.5% gross margins. Unless Harmonic Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $12.53 (+16.0%)
Spot @ $10.80

HLIT cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on HLIT, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Radio And Television Broadcasting And Communications Equipment and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $10.80 (52-wk range $8.47 - $17.68), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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