ROARABLE
FREE $100K
My Trading Account →
▾
Trading Profile Active
Active Trader
Verified Trader
⚡ My $100K Trading Account → ★ My Saved Watchlist →
🟢 My $100K Account → Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Financials / HNVR / forecast
EBMT (59) MNSB (51) BAFN (38) FINW (36) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Hanover Bancorp Inc. (HNVR) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$23.43 +0.39% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.40

Hanover Bancorp Inc. (HNVR) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $164.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HNVR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HNVR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Hanover Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: HNVR) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $23.43 (+0.39% 1D, market cap $164.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HNVR ranks #580 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HNVR compare to EBMT and MNSB in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), HNVR carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.7%. By comparison, EBMT (Eagle Bancorp Montana Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 7.7%, cap $168.9M) and MNSB (MainStreet Bancshares Inc.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 9.8x, ROIC 7.1%, cap $151.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MNSB leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while FINW leads on capital efficiency (8.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HNVR?
▼

Per HNVR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001828588), Hanover Bancorp Inc. generated $1.00B in revenue (+3.1% YoY), $7.5M in net income, and $12.2M in free cash flow against $2.38B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.40 (-0.12%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 1.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510053
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (12)Whales (5)SEC (13)Macro (8)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.3% Base Target
$29 Bull$23 Base$18 Bear
📬 FREE HNVR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HNVR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HNVR SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$24.94-4.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$23.75-0.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
56
Grade C$23.66-1% Next Q
Current
53
Grade D+$23.43-0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HNVR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HNVR currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($25.58) and Max Pain ($24.60) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $29.34.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HNVR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HNVR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your HNVR Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $23.43: 426.8 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $17.86
$7,623
$-2,377 (-23.8%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $22.90
$9,774
$-226 (-2.3%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $29.34
$12,522
+$2,522 (+25.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$2474%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$2869%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$2058%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HNVR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of HNVR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
HNVR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +0.77%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $23.60H $23.60L $23.34C $23.43VOL 16.7K
RES: $26.54SUP: $22.24SMA50: $25.58SMA200: $23.91
$28.43$26.40$24.38$22.36$20.33RES $26.54SUP $22.24$23.432026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HNVR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HNVR Butterfly Map → + Track HNVR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
15.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HNVR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HNVR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HNVR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HNVR)

Financials Rank #580 of 1097 ⚔️ EBMT vs HNVR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HNVR vs. EBMT, MNSB, BAFN, FINW)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hanover Bancorp Inc. (HNVR) ranks #580 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #915 by equity capitalization ($164.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MNSB leads on earnings valuation at 9.8x trailing P/E, while FINW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.3% ROIC and — gross margin. EBMT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with HNVR at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HNVR ACTIVE
Hanover Bancorp Inc.
D+ 53/100 22.2x — 3.7% +0.39% $164.7M Benchmark Subject
EBMT
Eagle Bancorp Montana Inc.
C- 59/100 11.5x — 7.7% +2.17% $168.9M /ebmt-vs-hnvr →
MNSB
MainStreet Bancshares Inc.
D 51/100 9.8x — 7.1% +3.52% $151.7M /mnsb-vs-hnvr →
BAFN
BayFirst Financial Corp.
D- 38/100 — — -30.1% +1.38% $180.2M /bafn-vs-hnvr →
FINW
FinWise Bancorp
D- 36/100 11.5x — 8.3% +0.46% $183.1M /finw-vs-hnvr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001828588 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hanover Bancorp Inc. (HNVR) reported GAAP revenue of $1.00B (+3.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $971.1M , and +1366.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $7.5M, operating cash flow of $13.1M, and free cash flow of $12.2M (+193.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, HNVR closed FY2025 with $2.38B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.00B $7.5M $13.1M $12.2M $2.38B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $971.1M $12.3M $5.4M $4.1M $2.31B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $68.2M $15.2M $16.4M $16.4M — —

3. HNVR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HNVR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Hanover Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: HNVR) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $23.43 (+0.39% 1D, market cap $164.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HNVR ranks #580 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HNVR compare to EBMT and MNSB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), HNVR carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.7%. By comparison, EBMT (Eagle Bancorp Montana Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 7.7%, cap $168.9M) and MNSB (MainStreet Bancshares Inc.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 9.8x, ROIC 7.1%, cap $151.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MNSB leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while FINW leads on capital efficiency (8.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HNVR?

Per HNVR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001828588), Hanover Bancorp Inc. generated $1.00B in revenue (+3.1% YoY), $7.5M in net income, and $12.2M in free cash flow against $2.38B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HNVR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HNVR last traded at $23.43 (+0.39% on volume of 18,246 shares), positioning the stock -8.41% below its 50-day simple moving average ($25.58) and -2.01% below its 200-day simple moving average ($23.91). Across its 52-week range of $20.19 to $27.94, HNVR sits at the 41.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.2% ($21.27 to $25.59).

Direct Sub-Reports: HNVR RQD Cockpit HNVR 12M Forecast HNVR Earnings & Move HNVR Dividends & DRIP HNVR Insiders & 13F HNVR Whale Options HNVR Profit Sankey HNVR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 53/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HNVR — Hanover Bancorp Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Hanover Bancorp Inc. (HNVR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 53/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $23.43 (+0.39% 1D, market capitalization $164.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.7%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 7.32%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating in the Major Banks industry, with a market capitalization of $0.2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Hanover Bancorp Inc. (HNVR) reported $1.00B in annual revenue (up from $971.1M in FY2024, +3.1% YoY) and $7.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($68.2M revenue, $15.2M net income) through FY2025, HNVR scaled operating cash flow to $13.1M and free cash flow to $12.2M, backed by $2.38B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 53/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 7.32% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $20.19 – $27.94 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 22.2x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Major Banks (Financials), HNVR carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can HNVR sustain or expand its — operating margin and 3.7% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.00B and free cash flow of $12.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HNVR's 20.6x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HNVR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Hanover Bancorp Inc. (HNVR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HNVR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HNVR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $23.43?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HNVR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HNVR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $29.18 (+25.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Macro regime fit scores 16 of 20 with beta at 1.0, and the stock trades at a 7.32% FCF yield.

Don't sleep on HNVR's setup in Financials. Macro regime fit scores 16 of 20 with beta at 1.0, and the stock trades at a 7.32% FCF yield.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (53/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@AlphaFlow_Cap Agree on the RQD 53/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $23.34 and keeping dry powder in case we test $21.71.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $18.67 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $23.34

Net income fell from $15.2M to $7.5M over three periods while ROIC sits at just 3.7%.

Fading this rally in HNVR at $23.34. Net income fell from $15.2M to $7.5M over three periods while ROIC sits at just 3.7%.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $23.34 (52-wk range $20.00–$27.94), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

LIVE TAPE