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Stock Ratings / Financials / HRTG / earnings
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Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. (HRTG) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7% Move

$35.94 +0.84% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.08

Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. (HRTG) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 77/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $1.07B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HRTG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HRTG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HRTG) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 77/100 at a spot price of $35.94 (+0.84% 1D, market cap $1.07B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HRTG ranks #22 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HRTG compare to IGIC and BOW in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), HRTG carries a Roarable B+ (77/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, IGIC (International General Insurance Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Share) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 17.9%, cap $1.06B) and BOW (Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 20.9x, ROIC 12.0%, cap $1.12B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HRTG leads on earnings multiple (5.5x) while HRTG leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HRTG?
▼

Per HRTG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001598665), Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. generated $847.3M in revenue (+3.7% YoY), $195.6M in net income, and $174.2M in free cash flow against $2.20B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.08 (+0.39%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 20.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 77/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 10% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.3% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
025507510077
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B+ · Rk B
Cash (17)Whales (13)SEC (13)Macro (17)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+8.5% Base Target
$46 Bull$39 Base$29 Bear
📬 FREE HRTG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HRTG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (77/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HRTG SCORES 77/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 20.6% FCF Margin ($174.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+17/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 89% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 52.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 7 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
85
Grade A$36.29+2.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
82
Grade A$37.08-6.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
80
Grade A-$34.73+3.5% Next Q
Current
77
Grade B+$35.94+7.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: A (85) → B+ (77)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HRTG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 77/100 (B+) score, HRTG faces multiple-compression risk if 5.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($34.90) or 200D SMA ($28.77) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($39.01) toward Bear Floor ($29.47).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HRTG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HRTG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 77%NO 23%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7% Swing Band

±$2.52 Expected Swing
$33.42 (-7%)Spot $35.94$38.46 (+7%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

HRTG Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 77/100

Trailing EPS: $6.58 • YoY Revenue Growth: 3.7%

Model Bullish Setup (77/100)Model Risk Weight (23/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$847.3M$195.6M$174.2M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$817.0M$61.5M$78.9M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$735.5M$45.3M$70.4M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating HRTG & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on HRTG
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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HRTG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.85%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-04O $35.64H $35.94L $35.64C $35.94VOL 278.9K
RES: $38.35SUP: $34.40SMA50: $34.90SMA200: $28.77
$39.09$34.04$29.00$23.96$18.91RES $38.35SUP $34.40$35.942026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HRTG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HRTG Butterfly Map → + Track HRTG →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-12.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HRTG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HRTG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HRTG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HRTG)

Financials Rank #22 of 1097 ⚔️ IGIC vs HRTG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HRTG vs. IGIC, BOW, ASIC, HIPO)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. (HRTG) ranks #22 by composite RQD confidence (77/100, grade B+) and #539 by equity capitalization ($1.07B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HRTG leads on earnings valuation at 5.5x trailing P/E, while HRTG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. HRTG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 77/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HRTG ACTIVE
Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc.
B+ 77/100 5.5x — 85.0% +0.84% $1.07B Benchmark Subject
IGIC
International General Insurance Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Share
D+ 53/100 8.3x — 17.9% +1.97% $1.06B /igic-vs-hrtg →
BOW
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.
C 63/100 20.9x — 12.0% -0.23% $1.12B /bow-vs-hrtg →
ASIC
Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings
C+ 66/100 15.8x — 12.0% +2.02% $1.16B /asic-vs-hrtg →
HIPO
Hippo Holdings Inc.
C- 60/100 15.7x — 14.4% -2.54% $950.4M /hipo-vs-hrtg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001598665 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. (HRTG) reported GAAP revenue of $847.3M (+3.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $817.0M , and +15.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $195.6M, operating cash flow of $182.2M, and free cash flow of $174.2M (+120.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, HRTG closed FY2025 with $2.20B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $847.3M $195.6M $182.2M $174.2M $2.20B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $817.0M $61.5M $87.1M $78.9M $2.47B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $735.5M $45.3M $70.4M $70.4M — —

3. HRTG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HRTG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HRTG) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 77/100 at a spot price of $35.94 (+0.84% 1D, market cap $1.07B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HRTG ranks #22 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HRTG compare to IGIC and BOW in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), HRTG carries a Roarable B+ (77/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, IGIC (International General Insurance Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Share) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 17.9%, cap $1.06B) and BOW (Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 20.9x, ROIC 12.0%, cap $1.12B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HRTG leads on earnings multiple (5.5x) while HRTG leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HRTG?

Per HRTG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001598665), Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. generated $847.3M in revenue (+3.7% YoY), $195.6M in net income, and $174.2M in free cash flow against $2.20B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HRTG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HRTG last traded at $35.94 (+0.84% on volume of 278,865 shares), positioning the stock +2.98% above its 50-day simple moving average ($34.90) and +24.92% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.77). Across its 52-week range of $20.48 to $37.87, HRTG sits at the 88.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.0% ($33.42 to $38.46).

Direct Sub-Reports: HRTG RQD Cockpit HRTG 12M Forecast HRTG Earnings & Move HRTG Dividends & DRIP HRTG Insiders & 13F HRTG Whale Options HRTG Profit Sankey HRTG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 77/100 (B+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HRTG — Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. (HRTG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 77/100, corresponding to a B+ letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $35.94 (+0.84% 1D, market capitalization $1.07B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (17/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 85.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 31.5%, and free cash flow yield of 16.21%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (17/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Property-Casualty Insurers industry. FY 2025 revenue was $847.3M. Customer segments, product lines, and distribution channels are — The profile does not describe how the company makes money beyond its sector and industry classification.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. (HRTG) reported $847.3M in annual revenue (up from $817.0M in FY2024, +3.7% YoY) and $195.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($735.5M revenue, $45.3M net income) through FY2025, HRTG scaled operating cash flow to $182.2M and free cash flow to $174.2M, backed by $2.20B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B+ • RQD 77/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 17/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $20.48 – $37.87 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 5.5x trailing P/E against 31.5% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are therefore — Sector correlations beyond the Financials / Property-Casualty Insurers classification are — Second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the provided material. Investors should note that the absence of graph links is a gap in the data, not evidence of no exposure.

  • Key Question #1: Can HRTG sustain or expand its 31.5% operating margin and 85.0% ROIC against Property-Casualty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $847.3M and free cash flow of $174.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HRTG's 5.1x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HRTG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. (HRTG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HRTG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HRTG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $35.94?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HRTG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HRTG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $46.69 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

An 85% ROIC and 16.21% FCF yield, with P/E (TTM) of 5.5, indicate strong cash generation at a low earnings multiple per the RQD rating

Don't sleep on HRTG's setup in Financials. An 85% ROIC and 16.21% FCF yield, with P/E (TTM) of 5.5, indicate strong cash generation at a low earnings multiple per the RQD rating and market data.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (77/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@AlphaFlow_Cap Agree on the RQD 77/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $35.64 and keeping dry powder in case we test $33.15.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $29.58 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $35.64

The stock has already rallied from a $20.48 low toward $37.87, and the forensic balance sheet pillar scores 13/20 on a Piotroski F of 5

Fading this rally in HRTG at $35.64. The stock has already rallied from a $20.48 low toward $37.87, and the forensic balance sheet pillar scores 13/20 on a Piotroski F of 5/9.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $35.64 (52-wk range $20.48–$37.87), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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