Stock Ratings / Industrials / HTLD / financials

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Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$10.22 -1.54% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.17

Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $802.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HTLD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HTLD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Heartland Express Inc. (NASDAQ: HTLD) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $10.22 (-1.54% 1D, market cap $802.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, HTLD ranks #433 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HTLD compare to CVLG and MRTN in the Industrials sector?

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Within the Industrials sector (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), HTLD carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -5.1%. By comparison, CVLG (Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A)) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E 101.0x, ROIC 0.4%, cap $731.4M) and MRTN (Marten Transport Ltd.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 55.1x, ROIC 2.5%, cap $960.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRTN leads on earnings multiple (55.1x) while MRTN leads on capital efficiency (2.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HTLD?

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Per HTLD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000799233), Heartland Express Inc. generated $805.7M in revenue (-23.1% YoY), -$52.5M in net income, and -$66.9M in free cash flow against $1.19B in total assets and $154.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.17 (-0.47%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HTLD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HTLD SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (39% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+5/20 pts (18% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$11.08-5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$10.53-4.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$10.02+2% Next Q

Current

Grade E$10.22-10% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (36) → E (28)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HTLD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HTLD currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.47) and Max Pain ($10.73) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $17.47.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HTLD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HTLD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 28%NO 72%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How HTLD Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $1.21B

FY24

Rev $1.05B

FY25

Rev $805.7M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$805.7M	52%	-7.1%	-$52.5M	-$66.9M	-5.1%
FY 2024	$1.05B	52%	-1.9%	-$29.7M	$34.8M	-1.6%
FY 2023	$1.21B	52%	3.5%	$14.8M	$165.3M	-5.1%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HTLD)

✓Walkthrough of HTLD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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HTLD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.24%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $10.19H $10.38L $10.19C $10.22VOL 789.0K

RES: $10.74SUP: $9.37SMA50: $11.47SMA200: $12.31

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HTLD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HTLD Butterfly Map → + Track HTLD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -23.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HTLD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HTLD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HTLD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HTLD)

Industrials Rank #433 of 485 ⚔️ CVLG vs HTLD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (HTLD vs. CVLG, MRTN, ULH, WERN)

Industry: Trucking Freight/Courier Services (19 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) ranks #433 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #268 by equity capitalization ($802.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MRTN leads on earnings valuation at 55.1x trailing P/E, while MRTN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.5% ROIC and — gross margin. MRTN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 48/100 (D) compared with HTLD at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HTLD ACTIVE Heartland Express Inc.	E	28/100	—	—	-5.1%	-1.54%	$802.7M	Benchmark Subject
CVLG Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A)	E	34/100	101.0x	—	0.4%	+7.29%	$731.4M	/cvlg-vs-htld →
MRTN Marten Transport Ltd.	D	48/100	55.1x	—	2.5%	-0.34%	$960.3M	/mrtn-vs-htld →
ULH Universal Logistics Holdings Inc.	D-	35/100	—	—	-4.2%	+29.68%	$459.3M	/ulh-vs-htld →
WERN Werner Enterprises Inc.	E	28/100	—	—	0.4%	+0.29%	$1.66B	/wern-vs-htld →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000799233

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) reported GAAP revenue of $805.7M (-23.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.05B , and -33.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$52.5M, operating cash flow of $89.3M, and free cash flow of -$66.9M (-292.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, HTLD closed FY2025 with $1.19B in total assets against $154.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$805.7M	-$52.5M	$89.3M	-$66.9M	$1.19B	$154.1M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.05B	-$29.7M	$144.3M	$34.8M	$1.33B	$191.7M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.21B	$14.8M	$165.3M	$165.3M	—	—

3. HTLD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HTLD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does HTLD compare to CVLG and MRTN in the Industrials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HTLD?

Where is HTLD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HTLD last traded at $10.22 (-1.54% on volume of 626,514 shares), positioning the stock -10.90% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.47) and -16.98% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.31). Across its 52-week range of $7.00 to $16.64, HTLD sits at the 33.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.2% ($9.38 to $11.06).

HTLD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), HTLD converted $805.7M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: HTLD RQD Cockpit HTLD 12M Forecast HTLD Earnings & Move HTLD Dividends & DRIP HTLD Insiders & 13F HTLD Whale Options HTLD Profit Sankey HTLD News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 28/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

HTLD — Heartland Express Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:32:49Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, HTLD scores 28 out of 100, grade E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20 (ROIC -5.1%; FCF yield -8.33%), Whale 13F Flow 4/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction 3/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit 5/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet 11/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 4/9; Debt/Equity 0.2).

For a prospective investor, the weakest pillars are the cash engine, insider conviction, and institutional flow, each scoring 5 or fewer out of 20. Per the SEC financials, the company reported negative net income and negative free cash flow in FY 2025, and the market data shows negative ROIC and FCF yield. The balance sheet pillar is comparatively the strongest at 11/20, which is a mitigating but not offsetting factor. Upside drivers would need to come from a turnaround in cash generation; the source data does not show one. Valuation tradeoffs are difficult to assess because forward and trailing earnings multiples are not available in source data. Macro sensitivity is rated at Beta 1.0, indicating market-level volatility, with sector sensitivity scored low.

Business

Per the profile, Heartland Express Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, operating within Trucking Freight/Courier Services. The market capitalization is $0.8B. Not available in source data for customer base, service mix, or revenue model details.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$805.7M	$-57.4M	$-52.5M	N/A	$-66.9M	$18.5M	$154.1M
FY 2024	$1047.5M	$-20.2M	$-29.7M	N/A	$34.8M	$12.8M	$191.7M
FY 2023	$1207.5M	$42.4M	$14.8M	N/A	$165.3M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue declined from $1207.5M in FY 2023 to $805.7M in FY 2025, with operating losses in both FY 2024 and FY 2025. Per the market data, operating margin is -7.1%, net margin is -6.5%, and gross margin is 0%. ROIC is -5.1%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, with Debt/Equity of 0.2. Cash reported for FY 2025 is $18.5M against debt of $154.1M.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, five items reference HTLD, all rated YELLOW and all tagged MARKET WIRE. Headlines include a Yahoo Finance report on a Q3 profit that "Meets Margin Strain," a Seeking Alpha piece stating that profits are coming from selling trucks rather than hauling freight, a TradingView report on implied volatility surging for HTLD options, a Yahoo Finance report on Q3 earnings key metrics, a GuruFocus report on Q3 revenue decline with operating ratio improvement, and a Globe and Mail piece listing HTLD among industrial goods names where analysts are conflicted. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or proprietary signal links are recorded. Not available in source data for supplier, customer, or sector-correlation mapping. Per the news feed, one headline frames profitability as dependent on equipment sales rather than freight hauling, which would be a second-order item to monitor, but the source does not quantify this relationship.

Open Questions

What drove the decline in revenue from $1207.5M in FY 2023 to $805.7M in FY 2025, and is the operating loss expected to reverse?
What are the trailing and forward earnings multiples, given that P/E and EPS are not available in source data?
What is the composition of the FY 2025 cash position of $18.5M relative to the $154.1M debt load?
What are the institutional 13F and insider Form 4 positions, given that the holders section is empty?
What is the company's exposure to upstream and downstream supply-chain partners, given that the Butterfly graph records none?

HTLD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HTLD Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 11h ago

Heartland Express (HTLD) Stock Slips As Q3 Profit Meets Margin Strain

Yahoo Finance report covering Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 14h ago

Heartland Express: The Profits Are Coming From Selling Trucks, Not Hauling Freight

Seeking Alpha report covering Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 17h ago

Implied Volatility Surging for Heartland Express Stock Options

TradingView report covering Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 20h ago

Heartland Express (HTLD) Reports Q3 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say

Yahoo Finance report covering Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GuruFocus • 23h ago

Heartland Express (HTLD) Reports Q3 Results with Revenue Decline and Operating Ratio Improvement

GuruFocus report covering Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Globe and Mail • 1d ago

Analysts Conflicted on These Industrial Goods Names: RTX (RTX), Heartland Express (HTLD) and CSX (CSX)

The Globe and Mail report covering Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Diesel Relief Could Lift Heartland Express Stock And Other Transport Shares

Simply Wall St report covering Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Baird downgrades Heartland Express, Werner as trucking headwinds mount (HTLD:NASDAQ)

Seeking Alpha report covering Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HTLD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $10.22?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HTLD 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.13 (-12.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is HTLD (E • RQD 28/100) a Buy at $10.38?

Welcome to the HTLD (Heartland Express Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 28/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Trucking Freight/Courier Services. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.51 (-18.0%)

Spot @ $10.38

Pump the brakes on HTLD — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on HTLD, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Heartland Express Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $12.56 (+21.0%)

Spot @ $10.38

HTLD cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on HTLD, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Trucking Freight/Courier Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $10.38 (52-wk range $7.00 - $16.64), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.