Independent Bank Corporation (IBCP) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.3% Move

$36.57 -1.43% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.56

Independent Bank Corporation (IBCP) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 73/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 14% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $819.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is IBCP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Independent Bank Corporation (NASDAQ: IBCP) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 73/100 at a spot price of $36.57 (-1.43% 1D, market cap $819.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, IBCP ranks #67 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does IBCP compare to ALRS and SPFI in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), IBCP carries a Roarable B (73/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.6%. By comparison, ALRS (Alerus Financial Corporation) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 47.2x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $823.4M) and SPFI (South Plains Financial Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 14.2x, ROIC 11.8%, cap $832.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FISI leads on earnings multiple (10.8x) while IBCP leads on capital efficiency (13.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IBCP?
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Per IBCP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000039311), Independent Bank Corporation generated $32.1M in revenue (+0.3% YoY), $68.5M in net income, and $70.2M in free cash flow against $5.51B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.56 (-0.02%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 218.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 73/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510073
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk C+
Cash (16)Whales (13)SEC (13)Macro (14)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.8% Base Target
$46 Bull$39 Base$30 Bear
📬 FREE IBCP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for IBCP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (73/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY IBCP SCORES 73/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 218.8% FCF Margin ($70.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 7 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
65
Grade C+$35.58+0.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
68
Grade B-$35.61+3.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
70
Grade B$37.01-1.2% Next Q
Current
73
Grade B$36.57+7.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (65) → B (73)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the IBCP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 73/100 (B) score, IBCP faces multiple-compression risk if 12.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($36.28) or 200D SMA ($35.42) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($39.04) toward Bear Floor ($29.99).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $IBCP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “IBCP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.3% Swing Band

±$1.57 Expected Swing
$35.00 (-4.3%)Spot $36.57$38.14 (+4.3%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

IBCP Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 73/100

Trailing EPS: $3.10 • YoY Revenue Growth: 0.3%

Model Bullish Setup (73/100)Model Risk Weight (27/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$32.1M$68.5M$70.2M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$32.0M$66.8M$55.2M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$32.9M$59.1M$75.6M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating IBCP & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on IBCP
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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IBCP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +10.68%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $36.92H $37.10L $36.57C $36.57VOL 299.4K
RES: $37.54SUP: $34.44SMA50: $36.28SMA200: $35.42
$39.72$37.75$35.78$33.81$31.84RES $37.54SUP $34.44$36.572026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

IBCP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
2.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +0.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on IBCP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for IBCP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for IBCP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (IBCP)

Financials Rank #67 of 1096 ⚔️ ALRS vs IBCP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (IBCP vs. ALRS, SPFI, FISI, RCBC)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Independent Bank Corporation (IBCP) ranks #67 by composite RQD confidence (73/100, grade B) and #600 by equity capitalization ($819.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FISI leads on earnings valuation at 10.8x trailing P/E, while IBCP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.6% ROIC and — gross margin. IBCP currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 73/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
IBCP ACTIVE
Independent Bank Corporation
B 73/100 12.0x — 13.6% -1.43% $819.2M Benchmark Subject
ALRS
Alerus Financial Corporation
C 63/100 47.2x — 3.1% +0.42% $823.4M /alrs-vs-ibcp →
SPFI
South Plains Financial Inc.
B- 70/100 14.2x — 11.8% -0.41% $832.5M /spfi-vs-ibcp →
FISI
Financial Institutions Inc.
D+ 57/100 10.8x — 11.9% -3.69% $805.6M /fisi-vs-ibcp →
RCBC
River City Bank
C- 61/100 — — — -1.29% $834.2M /rcbc-vs-ibcp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000039311

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Independent Bank Corporation (IBCP) reported GAAP revenue of $32.1M (+0.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $32.0M , and -2.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $68.5M, operating cash flow of $76.7M, and free cash flow of $70.2M (+27.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, IBCP closed FY2025 with $5.51B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $32.1M $68.5M $76.7M $70.2M $5.51B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $32.0M $66.8M $63.2M $55.2M $5.34B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $32.9M $59.1M $75.6M $75.6M — —

3. IBCP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is IBCP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Independent Bank Corporation (NASDAQ: IBCP) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 73/100 at a spot price of $36.57 (-1.43% 1D, market cap $819.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, IBCP ranks #67 in composite RQD confidence.

How does IBCP compare to ALRS and SPFI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), IBCP carries a Roarable B (73/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.6%. By comparison, ALRS (Alerus Financial Corporation) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 47.2x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $823.4M) and SPFI (South Plains Financial Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 14.2x, ROIC 11.8%, cap $832.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FISI leads on earnings multiple (10.8x) while IBCP leads on capital efficiency (13.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IBCP?

Per IBCP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000039311), Independent Bank Corporation generated $32.1M in revenue (+0.3% YoY), $68.5M in net income, and $70.2M in free cash flow against $5.51B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is IBCP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

IBCP last traded at $36.57 (-1.43% on volume of 127,012 shares), positioning the stock +0.80% above its 50-day simple moving average ($36.28) and +3.25% above its 200-day simple moving average ($35.42). Across its 52-week range of $29.83 to $39.24, IBCP sits at the 71.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.3% ($35.00 to $38.14).

IBCP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is IBCP's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Independent Bank Corporation (IBCP)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is IBCP stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±4.3% event move for IBCP, spanning a range between $35 and $38.14.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 73/100 (B) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

IBCP — Independent Bank Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:32:39Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, IBCP scores 73 out of 100, a letter grade of B, with the verdict label "Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward." The score is built from five pillars:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (16/20): Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 13.6% and an FCF yield of 8.57%. For a prospective investor, these are the strongest quantitative anchors in the rating: the business is reported to generate meaningful return on invested capital and free cash relative to its market value.
  • Whale 13F Flow (13/20): The RQD rating cites institutional accumulation and options positioning as the basis for this score. Investor implication: institutional participation is present but not scored at the top of the range, so smart-money confirmation is moderate rather than decisive.
  • Insider Conviction (17/20): Per the RQD rating, this is the highest pillar, based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Investor implication: insider-side signals are the rating's strongest support, although the underlying trade-level data is not included in the source material provided here.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20): Per the RQD rating, beta is 1.0 and sector sensitivity is factored in. Investor implication: the stock is reported to move in line with the broad market, so it is neither a defensive low-beta holding nor a high-volatility one under this measure.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Per the RQD rating, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 5/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Investor implication: balance-sheet health is adequate but not pristine; the Piotroski score in particular leaves room for scrutiny.

Taken together, the rating points to a stock whose valuation (P/E TTM of 12 and forward P/E of 11.2 per the market data) and cash-generation metrics are the main upside drivers, while the institutional-flow and balance-sheet pillars justify caution on sizing. Valuation tradeoffs center on whether the reported 12x trailing multiple adequately reflects the cash yield, and on how the bank's 68% reported net margin translates into durable earnings quality, a question the source data does not resolve. This is an analytical summary, not personalized advice.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$32.1M$0.0M$68.5MN/A$70.2M$138.4MN/A
FY 2024$32.0M$0.0M$66.8MN/A$55.2M$119.9MN/A
FY 2023$32.9M$0.0M$59.1MN/A$75.6MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, net income rose from $59.1M (FY 2023) to $66.8M (FY 2024) and $68.5M (FY 2025), while FCF moved from $75.6M to $55.2M to $70.2M. Reported net margin is 68% per the market data, while gross and operating margins are listed as 0%, which likely reflects how the source populates those fields rather than actual economics; the source does not clarify. Per the RQD rating, ROIC is 13.6%, Altman Z is 2.5, and Piotroski F is 5/9, with Debt/Equity at 0.5. Not available in source data for debt figures in the reported periods.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Quarterly cash dividend (Yahoo Finance, 1h ago, YELLOW, Market Wire): Announcement of a quarterly cash dividend on common stock.
  • Price target raised (TradingView, 3h ago, GREEN, Catalyst): Headline cites a 12-month price target of $40.6, implying 10% upside.
  • Q3 earnings flash (Moomoo, 6h ago, YELLOW, Market Wire): Headline reports Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.92 per share.
  • Earnings call presentation (Seeking Alpha, 9h ago, YELLOW, Market Wire): Q3 2026 results and earnings call presentation dated 2026-10-27.
  • Stock analysis (Simply Wall St, 12h ago, YELLOW, Market Wire): General analytical coverage; no specific figures in the headline.
  • Bank acquisition deposits (Stock Titan, 15h ago, YELLOW, Market Wire): Headline states a bank acquisition brought $543.5 million in deposits to Independent Bank.

Risk watch items: the source data does not describe the terms, timing, or integration risk of the acquisition. Proprietary signals: none. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links or proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is NONE, with no upstream or downstream links recorded. Sector: Financials; Industry: Major Banks. The source provides no data on sector correlations or 2nd-order bottlenecks. The most relevant ripple indicated by the news wire is the $543.5 million deposit inflow from the cited acquisition, which a prospective investor should monitor for integration effects and their flow-through to reported earnings; the source does not quantify these effects.

Open Questions

  • What are the terms, price, and timing of the acquisition that brought $543.5 million in deposits, and how is it reflected in reported results?
  • Why are the reported gross and operating margins 0% while net margin is 68%, and what drives that difference?
  • What are the reported debt figures and EPS for each fiscal period, which are listed as N/A or unavailable?
  • Which specific insider, 13F, and Congressional trades underlie the insider conviction and whale flow pillars?
  • What is the basis for the $40.6 price target, and what analyst consensus exists, given that analyst data is empty?

IBCP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Independent Bank Corporation (IBCP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to IBCP Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

IBCP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $36.57?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON IBCP 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on IBCP:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $43.78 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is IBCP (B • RQD 73/100) a Buy at $37.10?

Welcome to the IBCP (Independent Bank Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 73/100 (Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward) in Major Banks. Bulls point to capital efficiency (13.6% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $29.31 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $37.10

Pump the brakes on IBCP — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on IBCP, but look at what you are paying: 12.0x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Independent Bank Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $42.29 (+14.0%)
Spot @ $37.10

IBCP cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on IBCP, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Major Banks and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $37.10 (52-wk range $29.83 - $39.24), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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