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Why IBTA Stock surged +2.98% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$50.07 +2.98% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $50.24

Ibotta Inc. (Class A) (IBTA) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.16B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on IBTA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is IBTA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Ibotta Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: IBTA) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $50.07 (+2.98% 1D, market cap $1.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, IBTA ranks #16 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does IBTA compare to CRTO and MNTN in the Communication Services sector?
▼

Within the Communication Services sector (Advertising), IBTA carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 79.2%, and ROIC of -0.7%. By comparison, CRTO (Criteo S.A.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 4.9x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $733.5M) and MNTN (MNTN Inc. (Class A)) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 19.9%, cap $703.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CRTO leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while GRPN leads on capital efficiency (56.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IBTA?
▼

Per IBTA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001538379), Ibotta Inc. (Class A) generated $342.4M in revenue (-6.8% YoY), $3.6M in net income, and $75.0M in free cash flow against $525.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $50.25 (+0.35%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 21.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510067
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C+ · Rk C
Cash (13)Whales (16)SEC (14)Macro (12)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.1% Base Target
$61 Bull$52 Base$41 Bear
📬 FREE IBTA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for IBTA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY IBTA SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.1% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.62 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 8 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
59
Grade C$44.42+10.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$48.98-1.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$48.43+3.4% Next Q
Current
67
Grade C+$50.07+1.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the IBTA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, IBTA faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 76.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($42.90) or 200D SMA ($33.25) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($52.10) toward Bear Floor ($40.64).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $IBTA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “IBTA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why IBTA Stock surged +2.98% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Ibotta Inc. (Class A) (IBTA) surged +2.98% to $50.07, trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($19.1 – $50.53). Solid 79.2% gross margin (-1% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($19.1 – $50.53) with RSI-14 at 68.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.1% around $50.07 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 79.2% gross margin and $75.0M annual free cash flow.
Live IBTA Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (IBTA Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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IBTA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +35.88%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-04O $48.62H $50.07L $48.62C $50.07VOL 471.1K
RES: $52.33SUP: $17.96SMA50: $42.90SMA200: $33.25
$52.40$44.66$36.92$29.18$21.44RES $52.33SUP $17.96$50.072026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

IBTA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 IBTA Butterfly Map → + Track IBTA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -6.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on IBTA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for IBTA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for IBTA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (IBTA)

Communication Services Rank #16 of 132 ⚔️ CRTO vs IBTA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Communication Services Peer Comparison (IBTA vs. CRTO, MNTN, GRPN, STGW)

Industry: Advertising (23 Tracked Issuers)

Across 132 tracked Communication Services securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ibotta Inc. (Class A) (IBTA) ranks #16 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #62 by equity capitalization ($1.16B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CRTO leads on earnings valuation at 4.9x trailing P/E, while GRPN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 56.5% ROIC and 90.8% gross margin. IBTA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
IBTA ACTIVE
Ibotta Inc. (Class A)
C+ 67/100 — 79.2% -0.7% +2.98% $1.16B Benchmark Subject
CRTO
Criteo S.A.
D+ 52/100 4.9x 54.0% 19.8% +2.18% $733.5M /crto-vs-ibta →
MNTN
MNTN Inc. (Class A)
C- 60/100 — 77.2% 19.9% +0.64% $703.9M /mntn-vs-ibta →
GRPN
Groupon Inc.
D 46/100 — 90.8% 56.5% -1.08% $633.6M /grpn-vs-ibta →
STGW
Stagwell Inc. (Class A)
C- 61/100 79.4x 36.5% 6.3% +2.87% $2.67B /stgw-vs-ibta →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001538379 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ibotta Inc. (Class A) (IBTA) reported GAAP revenue of $342.4M (-6.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $367.3M , and +7.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $3.6M, operating cash flow of $95.3M, and free cash flow of $75.0M (-34.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, IBTA closed FY2025 with $525.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.62, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $342.4M $3.6M $95.3M $75.0M $525.9M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $367.3M $68.7M $115.9M $115.0M $678.4M $0
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $320.0M $38.1M $22.7M $22.7M — —

3. IBTA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is IBTA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Ibotta Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: IBTA) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $50.07 (+2.98% 1D, market cap $1.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, IBTA ranks #16 in composite RQD confidence.

How does IBTA compare to CRTO and MNTN in the Communication Services sector?

Within the Communication Services sector (Advertising), IBTA carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 79.2%, and ROIC of -0.7%. By comparison, CRTO (Criteo S.A.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 4.9x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $733.5M) and MNTN (MNTN Inc. (Class A)) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 19.9%, cap $703.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CRTO leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while GRPN leads on capital efficiency (56.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IBTA?

Per IBTA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001538379), Ibotta Inc. (Class A) generated $342.4M in revenue (-6.8% YoY), $3.6M in net income, and $75.0M in free cash flow against $525.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is IBTA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

IBTA last traded at $50.07 (+2.98% on volume of 471,068 shares), positioning the stock +16.71% above its 50-day simple moving average ($42.90) and +50.59% above its 200-day simple moving average ($33.25). Across its 52-week range of $19.10 to $50.53, IBTA sits at the 98.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 68.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.1% ($45.51 to $54.63).

Direct Sub-Reports: IBTA RQD Cockpit IBTA 12M Forecast IBTA Earnings & Move IBTA Dividends & DRIP IBTA Insiders & 13F IBTA Whale Options IBTA Profit Sankey IBTA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 67/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

IBTA — Ibotta Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Ibotta Inc. (Class A) (IBTA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 67/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $50.07 (+2.98% 1D, market capitalization $1.16B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -0.7%, gross margin of 79.2%, operating margin of -0.2%, and free cash flow yield of 6.55%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (16/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.62, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Ibotta Inc. (Class A) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Communication Services sector and the Advertising industry. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 79.2%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Ibotta Inc. (Class A) (IBTA) reported $342.4M in annual revenue (up from $367.3M in FY2024, -6.8% YoY) and $3.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($320.0M revenue, $38.1M net income) through FY2025, IBTA scaled operating cash flow to $95.3M and free cash flow to $75.0M, backed by $525.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 67/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of 6.55% and institutional whale pillar of 16/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $19.10 – $50.53 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh current valuation against -0.2% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not establish upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks. A prospective investor should treat this section as unresolved rather than as evidence of no exposure.

  • Key Question #1: Can IBTA sustain or expand its -0.2% operating margin and -0.7% ROIC against Advertising peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $342.4M and free cash flow of $75.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is IBTA's equity valuation to Communication Services capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

IBTA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ibotta Inc. (Class A) (IBTA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to IBTA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

IBTA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $50.07?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON IBTA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on IBTA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $58.34 (+20.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Strong institutional positioning (16/20 whale flow) and a 6.55% FCF yield support the cash-generation case.

Long IBTA at $48.62 targeting $58.34. Strong institutional positioning (16/20 whale flow) and a 6.55% FCF yield support the cash-generation case.. Institutional whale score is 16/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $19.10 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Shorting a 16/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $48.62 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Communication Services.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $36.46 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $48.62

Operating income swung from $27.9M in FY 2024 to -$0.8M in FY 2025 while ROIC sits at -0.7%.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on IBTA: Operating income swung from $27.9M in FY 2024 to -$0.8M in FY 2025 while ROIC sits at -0.7%.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Advertising triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

LIVE TAPE