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Stock Ratings / Health Care / IDYA / forecast
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IDEAYA Biosciences Inc. (IDYA) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$31.64 -1.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.52

IDEAYA Biosciences Inc. (IDYA) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 34/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $3.08B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on IDYA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is IDYA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, IDEAYA Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: IDYA) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 34/100 at a spot price of $31.64 (-1.00% 1D, market cap $3.08B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, IDYA ranks #620 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does IDYA compare to TLX and BHC in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), IDYA carries a Roarable E (34/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -13.8%. By comparison, TLX (Telix Pharmaceuticals Limited) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.08B) and BHC (Bausch Health Companies Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 21.2x, ROIC 7.6%, cap $3.07B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BHC leads on earnings multiple (21.2x) while BHC leads on capital efficiency (7.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IDYA?
▼

Per IDYA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001676725), IDEAYA Biosciences Inc. generated $218.7M in revenue (+3024.4% YoY), -$113.7M in net income, and -$73.5M in free cash flow against $1.11B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.52 (-0.37%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (34/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510034
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (9)Whales (5)SEC (14)Macro (3)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.8% Base Target
$45 Bull$28 Base$22 Bear
📬 FREE IDYA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for IDYA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (34/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY IDYA SCORES 34/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (41% of score)

Altman Z-Score 21.49 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
42
Grade D$34.26+3.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
39
Grade E$35.36-5.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
37
Grade E$33.50-5.6% Next Q
Current
34
Grade E$31.64-8.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (42) → E (34)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a IDYA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While IDYA currently carries a cautious 34/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($36.95) and Max Pain ($33.22) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $44.81.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $IDYA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “IDYA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 34%NO 66%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your IDYA Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $31.64: 316.1 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $22.01
$6,956
$-3,044 (-30.4%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $28.22
$8,919
$-1,081 (-10.8%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $44.81
$14,162
+$4,162 (+41.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$2974%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$4269%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$2558%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring IDYA)

  • ✓Walkthrough of IDYA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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IDYA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +9.48%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-03O $32.89H $32.89L $31.64C $31.64VOL 838.1K
RES: $45.62SUP: $36.60SMA50: $36.95SMA200: $33.98
$43.79$39.19$34.59$29.98$25.38RES $45.62SUP $36.60$31.642026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

IDYA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 IDYA Butterfly Map → + Track IDYA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3024.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on IDYA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for IDYA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for IDYA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (IDYA)

Health Care Rank #620 of 1015 ⚔️ TLX vs IDYA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (IDYA vs. TLX, BHC, DYN, ELVN)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, IDEAYA Biosciences Inc. (IDYA) ranks #620 by composite RQD confidence (34/100, grade E) and #201 by equity capitalization ($3.08B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BHC leads on earnings valuation at 21.2x trailing P/E, while BHC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.6% ROIC and — gross margin. BHC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with IDYA at 34/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
IDYA ACTIVE
IDEAYA Biosciences Inc.
E 34/100 — — -13.8% -1.00% $3.08B Benchmark Subject
TLX
Telix Pharmaceuticals Limited
D 47/100 — — — -0.55% $3.08B /tlx-vs-idya →
BHC
Bausch Health Companies Inc.
C+ 68/100 21.2x — 7.6% -2.19% $3.07B /bhc-vs-idya →
DYN
Dyne Therapeutics Inc.
E 26/100 — — -35.0% +3.66% $3.12B /dyn-vs-idya →
ELVN
Enliven Therapeutics Inc.
D- 39/100 — — -26.2% +0.86% $3.24B /elvn-vs-idya →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001676725 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), IDEAYA Biosciences Inc. (IDYA) reported GAAP revenue of $218.7M (+3024.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.0M , and +835.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$113.7M, operating cash flow of -$71.1M, and free cash flow of -$73.5M (+70.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, IDYA closed FY2025 with $1.11B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 21.49, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $218.7M -$113.7M -$71.1M -$73.5M $1.11B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $7.0M -$274.5M -$247.6M -$251.4M $1.12B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $23.4M -$113.0M -$115.2M -$115.2M — —

3. IDYA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is IDYA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, IDEAYA Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: IDYA) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 34/100 at a spot price of $31.64 (-1.00% 1D, market cap $3.08B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, IDYA ranks #620 in composite RQD confidence.

How does IDYA compare to TLX and BHC in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), IDYA carries a Roarable E (34/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -13.8%. By comparison, TLX (Telix Pharmaceuticals Limited) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.08B) and BHC (Bausch Health Companies Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 21.2x, ROIC 7.6%, cap $3.07B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BHC leads on earnings multiple (21.2x) while BHC leads on capital efficiency (7.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IDYA?

Per IDYA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001676725), IDEAYA Biosciences Inc. generated $218.7M in revenue (+3024.4% YoY), -$113.7M in net income, and -$73.5M in free cash flow against $1.11B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is IDYA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

IDYA last traded at $31.64 (-1.00% on volume of 789,955 shares), positioning the stock -14.37% below its 50-day simple moving average ($36.95) and -6.89% below its 200-day simple moving average ($33.98). Across its 52-week range of $26.81 to $42.68, IDYA sits at the 30.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.7% ($28.89 to $34.39).

Direct Sub-Reports: IDYA RQD Cockpit IDYA 12M Forecast IDYA Earnings & Move IDYA Dividends & DRIP IDYA Insiders & 13F IDYA Whale Options IDYA Profit Sankey IDYA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 34/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

IDYA — IDEAYA Biosciences Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

IDEAYA Biosciences Inc. (IDYA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 34/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $31.64 (-1.00% 1D, market capitalization $3.08B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -13.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -2.31%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 21.49, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

IDEAYA Biosciences Inc. (IDYA) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. The issuer has a market capitalization of $3.2B. — for detailed product or customer descriptions.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), IDEAYA Biosciences Inc. (IDYA) reported $218.7M in annual revenue (up from $7.0M in FY2024, +3024.4% YoY) and -$113.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($23.4M revenue, -$113.0M net income) through FY2025, IDYA scaled operating cash flow to -$71.1M and free cash flow to -$73.5M, backed by $1.11B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 34/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -2.31% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $26.81 – $42.68 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the source data. Investors should note that the absence of mapped links means no quantified ripple exposure is available here.

  • Key Question #1: Can IDYA sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -13.8% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $218.7M and free cash flow of -$73.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is IDYA's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

IDYA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for IDEAYA Biosciences Inc. (IDYA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to IDYA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

IDYA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $31.64?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON IDYA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on IDYA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $39.95 (+25.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet scores 14 of 20 with an Altman Z-Score of 21.49 and FY 2025 revenue rising to $218.7M from $7.0M.

Don't sleep on IDYA's setup in Health Care. Forensic balance sheet scores 14 of 20 with an Altman Z-Score of 21.49 and FY 2025 revenue rising to $218.7M from $7.0M.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (34/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@DeepValue_CFA Agree on the RQD 34/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $31.96 and keeping dry powder in case we test $29.72.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $26.53 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $31.96

ROIC of -13.8% and FCF yield of -2.31% leave the cash engine unable to self-fund, with FY 2025 free cash flow at -$73.5M.

I respect the product at IDEAYA Biosciences Inc., but the stock at $31.96 is a different story. ROIC of -13.8% and FCF yield of -2.31% leave the cash engine unable to self-fund, with FY 2025 free cash flow at -$73.5M.. FCF yield is -2.31% and RQD sits at 34/100 (E) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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