Why ITW Stock slipped -1.01% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$278.55 -1.01% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $278.71

Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 76/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (53% profit margin, 23% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $79.97B
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As of 2026-11-02, Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE: ITW) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $278.55 (-1.01% 1D, market cap $79.97B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, ITW ranks #16 in composite RQD confidence.

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🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ITW compare to NOC and CMI in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), ITW carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.3x, gross margin of 52.9%, and ROIC of 23.4%. By comparison, NOC (Northrop Grumman Corporation) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 19.1x, ROIC 13.0%, cap $79.89B) and CMI (Cummins Inc.) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 22.7x, ROIC 17.5%, cap $71.31B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NOC leads on earnings multiple (19.1x) while ITW leads on capital efficiency (23.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ITW?
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Per ITW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000049826), Illinois Tool Works Inc. generated $16.04B in revenue (+0.9% YoY), $0 in net income, and $2.71B in free cash flow against $16.15B in total assets and $6.68B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (53% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $278.72 (+0.06%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 16.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 76/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 11% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
025507510076
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B-
Cash (18)Whales (15)SEC (16)Macro (12)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+8.1% Base Target
$355 Bull$301 Base$228 Bear
📬 FREE ITW RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ITW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (76/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ITW SCORES 76/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 16.9% FCF Margin ($2.71B FCF) & 52.9% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 10.74 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (62.2) create a -8 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
68
Grade B-$266.32+3.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
71
Grade B$274.97+0.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
73
Grade B$275.93+0.9% Next Q
Current
76
Grade B+$278.55+7.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (68) → B+ (76)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ITW Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 76/100 (B+) score, ITW faces multiple-compression risk if 24.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 50.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($271.32) or 200D SMA ($270.83) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($301.11) toward Bear Floor ($228.41).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ITW• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ITW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why ITW Stock slipped -1.01% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) slipped -1.01% to $278.55, trading at 62% of its 52-week range ($238.82 – $303.16). High-quality cash engine (53% profit margin, 23% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 62% of its 52-week range ($238.82 – $303.16) with RSI-14 at 62.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.7% around $278.55 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B+ (Buy) backed by 52.9% gross margin and $2.7B annual free cash flow.
Live ITW Headlines & Catalysts
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ITW Tape Review)

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ITW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +10.69%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $276.1H $281.4L $276.1C $278.6VOL 1.06M
RES: $285.3SUP: $252.6SMA50: $271.3SMA200: $270.8
$306.1$288.7$271.4$254.0$236.7RES $285.3SUP $252.6$278.62026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ITW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
18.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +0.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ITW today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ITW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ITW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ITW)

Industrials Rank #16 of 485 ⚔️ NOC vs ITW Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (ITW vs. NOC, CMI, JCI, AME)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) ranks #16 by composite RQD confidence (76/100, grade B+) and #18 by equity capitalization ($79.97B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NOC leads on earnings valuation at 19.1x trailing P/E, while ITW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 23.4% ROIC and 52.9% gross margin. ITW currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 76/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ITW ACTIVE
Illinois Tool Works Inc.
B+ 76/100 24.3x 52.9% 23.4% -1.01% $79.97B Benchmark Subject
NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation
C+ 68/100 19.1x — 13.0% -0.86% $79.89B /noc-vs-itw →
CMI
Cummins Inc.
C 64/100 22.7x 25.3% 17.5% -3.46% $71.31B /cmi-vs-itw →
JCI
Johnson Controls International plc Ordinary Share
B 73/100 29.1x 36.4% 15.6% -5.84% $95.87B /jci-vs-itw →
AME
AMETEK Inc.
B+ 76/100 39.0x 36.0% 13.4% -4.23% $57.72B /ame-vs-itw →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000049826

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) reported GAAP revenue of $16.04B (+0.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $15.90B , and -0.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $3.13B, and free cash flow of $2.71B (-4.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ITW closed FY2025 with $16.15B in total assets against $6.68B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 10.74, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $16.04B $0 $3.13B $2.71B $16.15B $6.68B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $15.90B $0 $3.28B $2.84B $15.07B $6.31B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $16.11B $0 $3.54B $2.81B $43.99B $10.29B

3. ITW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ITW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE: ITW) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $278.55 (-1.01% 1D, market cap $79.97B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, ITW ranks #16 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ITW compare to NOC and CMI in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), ITW carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.3x, gross margin of 52.9%, and ROIC of 23.4%. By comparison, NOC (Northrop Grumman Corporation) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 19.1x, ROIC 13.0%, cap $79.89B) and CMI (Cummins Inc.) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 22.7x, ROIC 17.5%, cap $71.31B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NOC leads on earnings multiple (19.1x) while ITW leads on capital efficiency (23.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ITW?

Per ITW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000049826), Illinois Tool Works Inc. generated $16.04B in revenue (+0.9% YoY), $0 in net income, and $2.71B in free cash flow against $16.15B in total assets and $6.68B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (53% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ITW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ITW last traded at $278.55 (-1.01% on volume of 1,715,909 shares), positioning the stock +2.66% above its 50-day simple moving average ($271.32) and +2.85% above its 200-day simple moving average ($270.83). Across its 52-week range of $238.82 to $303.16, ITW sits at the 61.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($265.46 to $291.64).

ITW Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is ITW stock moving today?

Why ITW Stock slipped -1.01% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. High-quality cash engine (53% profit margin, 23% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 76/100 (B+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ITW — Illinois Tool Works Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:10:15Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ITW scores 76 out of 100, a B+ grade, labeled "Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (18 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 23.4% and an FCF yield of 3.38%. For a prospective investor, the high ROIC indicates strong capital efficiency, while the 3.38% FCF yield signals that the stock's cash generation is meaningful but not cheap on a cash-yield basis relative to the current price of 281.4.
  • Whale 13F Flow (15 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar captures institutional accumulation and options positioning. The underlying 13F detail is not itemized in the source data, so the score is a summary indicator only; investors should note that holder-level confirmation is unavailable here.
  • Insider Conviction (15 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Individual transactions are not itemized in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 0.92, indicating the stock has historically tracked the broader market at slightly lower volatility. This is the lowest-scoring pillar, reflecting sector sensitivity; it implies the stock may not provide strong upside leverage in a risk-on macro regime.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (16 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects an Altman Z of 10.74, a Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.8. These readings point to a balance sheet with low distress signals, though the Piotroski score leaves room for improvement.

Investor implications: the composite suggests a quality-compounder profile with solid cash economics, tempered by a valuation that the market data shows at 24.3x trailing earnings, and a macro-sensitivity pillar that caps the score. Upside drivers are the cash-engine and balance-sheet pillars; valuation tradeoff is the elevated multiple relative to the cash yield. This is educational analysis, not personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
281.4$79.97B24.322.618.811.572.23%0.92$238.82 - $303.1623.4%

Business

Illinois Tool Works Inc. is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, operating in the Industrial Machinery/Components industry, per the Profile section. Per the Market Data section, the company reports a gross margin of 52.9%, an operating margin of 26.3%, and a net margin of 20.5%. Customer base and product-line detail are not available in source data. How the company monetizes its products beyond these margin figures is not available in source data.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$16044.0M$4216.0M$0.0MN/A$2707.0M$851.0M$6683.0M
FY 2024$15898.0M$4264.0M$0.0MN/A$2844.0M$948.0M$6308.0M
FY 2023$16107.0M$4040.0M$0.0MN/A$2814.2MN/A$10292.6M

Per the SEC financials, revenue is broadly flat across the three periods, moving from $16107.0M in FY 2023 to $16044.0M in FY 2025, while operating income has held in a range of $4040.0M to $4264.0M. Net income is reported as $0.0M and EPS as N/A in every period, so earnings trend cannot be assessed from the financials section. Per the Market Data section, ROIC is 23.4%, and per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 10.74 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9. Debt/Equity is 0.8 per the Roarable RQD rating, and cash declined from $948.0M in FY 2024 to $851.0M in FY 2025 while debt rose from $6308.0M to $6683.0M over the same period.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts section, six items are tagged to ITW:

  • CATALYST (GREEN): A Seeking Alpha headline states that shares "Don't Justify An Upgrade Even With Continued Growth," which is tagged as a catalyst item.
  • CATALYST (GREEN): A Yahoo Finance item on "Innovation Gains or an Industrial Upturn?" is tagged as a catalyst.
  • RISK WATCH (RED): An Investing.com item reports that JPMorgan downgraded the stock rating on valuation.
  • MARKET WIRE (YELLOW): Three items (a Yahoo! Finance Canada quote page, a Yahoo Finance "Mixed Signals" piece, and a Yahoo Finance earnings preview) are tagged as market wire.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership

Analyst consensus, price targets, and holder detail are not available in source data. The only analyst-related headline in the source is the JPMorgan valuation downgrade referenced in the catalysts section; the rating level and target price are not available in source data.

Open Questions

  • What is the net income and EPS trajectory, given that the financials section reports $0.0M net income and N/A EPS across all periods?
  • What is the basis of the JPMorgan downgrade, and what rating and price target were assigned?
  • What is the detailed 13F and Form 4 holder activity behind the whale and insider pillar scores?
  • Why did debt rise by roughly $375M from FY 2024 to FY 2025 while cash declined, and what is the debt maturity profile?
  • What drives the 0.92 beta and the sector-sensitivity penalty in the macro pillar, given the absence of supply-chain links?

ITW Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ITW Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ITW Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $278.55?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ITW 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ITW:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $332.05 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ITW (B+ • RQD 76/100) a Buy at $281.40?

Welcome to the ITW (Illinois Tool Works Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 76/100 (Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow) in Industrial Machinery/Components. Bulls point to capital efficiency (23.4% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $216.68 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $281.40

Pump the brakes on ITW — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ITW, but look at what you are paying: 24.3x trailing P/E with 52.9% gross margins. Unless Illinois Tool Works Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $340.49 (+21.0%)
Spot @ $281.40

ITW cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ITW, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Industrial Machinery/Components and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $281.40 (52-wk range $238.82 - $303.16), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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