What is JAKK's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for JAKK.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / JAKK / options

FNKO (36) BBW (68) JOUT (50) ESCA (74) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

Q: Where is JAKK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

JAKK last traded at $31.60 (+0.67% on volume of 306,726 shares), positioning the stock +17.34% above its 50-day simple moving average ($26.93) and +36.27% above its 200-day simple moving average ($23.19). Across its 52-week range of $14.87 to $33.22, JAKK sits at the 91.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.0% ($29.39 to $33.81).

$31.60 +0.67% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.58

JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $361.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is JAKK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, JAKKS Pacific Inc. (NASDAQ: JAKK) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $31.60 (+0.67% 1D, market cap $361.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, JAKK ranks #725 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does JAKK compare to FNKO and BBW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Recreational Games/Products/Toys), JAKK carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 96.0%, and ROIC of 5.7%. By comparison, FNKO (Funko Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.4%, cap $356.7M) and BBW (Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 6.5x, ROIC 33.7%, cap $340.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BBW leads on earnings multiple (6.5x) while BBW leads on capital efficiency (33.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JAKK?

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Per JAKK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001009829), JAKKS Pacific Inc. generated $113.3M in revenue (-83.6% YoY), $9.87B in net income, and -$1.1M in free cash flow against $442.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.58 (-0.07%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for JAKK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY JAKK SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (40% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+7/20 pts (18% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.72 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 12.6% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$28.08+4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$29.20+10.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$32.14-1.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$31.60-7.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (32) → D- (40)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a JAKK Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While JAKK currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($26.93) and Max Pain ($33.18) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $34.88.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $JAKK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “JAKK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 40%NO 60%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±7%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (JAKK)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for JAKK.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring JAKK)

✓Walkthrough of JAKK's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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JAKK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +37.21%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $32.29H $32.29L $31.39C $31.60VOL 255.4K

RES: $33.49SUP: $25.73SMA50: $26.93SMA200: $23.19

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

JAKK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 JAKK Butterfly Map → + Track JAKK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

11.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -83.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JAKK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JAKK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for JAKK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JAKK)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #725 of 1009 ⚔️ FNKO vs JAKK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (JAKK vs. FNKO, BBW, JOUT, ESCA)

Industry: Recreational Games/Products/Toys (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) ranks #725 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #623 by equity capitalization ($361.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BBW leads on earnings valuation at 6.5x trailing P/E, while BBW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.7% ROIC and 55.8% gross margin. ESCA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with JAKK at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
JAKK ACTIVE JAKKS Pacific Inc.	D-	40/100	—	96.0%	5.7%	+0.67%	$361.6M	Benchmark Subject
FNKO Funko Inc. (Class A)	D-	36/100	—	—	-10.4%	+0.63%	$356.7M	/fnko-vs-jakk →
BBW Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc.	C+	68/100	6.5x	55.8%	33.7%	+6.99%	$340.1M	/bbw-vs-jakk →
JOUT Johnson Outdoors Inc. (Class A)	D	50/100	—	35.1%	-4.5%	+4.73%	$478.6M	/jout-vs-jakk →
ESCA Escalade Incorporated	B	74/100	20.2x	26.9%	8.0%	+6.29%	$271.0M	/esca-vs-jakk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001009829 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) reported GAAP revenue of $113.3M (-83.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $691.0M , and -84.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $9.87B, operating cash flow of $8.5M, and free cash flow of -$1.1M (-103.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, JAKK closed FY2025 with $442.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.72, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$113.3M	$9.87B	$8.5M	-$1.1M	$442.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$691.0M	$34.20B	$38.9M	$27.7M	$444.9M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$711.6M	$38.11B	$66.4M	$66.4M	—	—

3. JAKK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is JAKK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does JAKK compare to FNKO and BBW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JAKK?

Where is JAKK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

JAKK last traded at $31.60 (+0.67% on volume of 306,726 shares), positioning the stock +17.34% above its 50-day simple moving average ($26.93) and +36.27% above its 200-day simple moving average ($23.19). Across its 52-week range of $14.87 to $33.22, JAKK sits at the 91.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.0% ($29.39 to $33.81).

Direct Sub-Reports: JAKK RQD Cockpit JAKK 12M Forecast JAKK Earnings & Move JAKK Dividends & DRIP JAKK Insiders & 13F JAKK Whale Options JAKK Profit Sankey JAKK News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 40/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

JAKK — JAKKS Pacific Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 40/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $31.60 (+0.67% 1D, market capitalization $361.6M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.7%, gross margin of 96.0%, operating margin of 12.6%, and free cash flow yield of -0.29%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (16/20) + Insider Conviction (6/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (7/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.72, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Recreational Games/Products/Toys industry. The profile does not describe its specific products, customers, or revenue model. The company reports a gross margin of 96%, an operating margin of 12.6%, and a net margin of 68%. — for detailed product lines, distribution channels, or customer concentration.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) reported $113.3M in annual revenue (up from $691.0M in FY2024, -83.6% YoY) and $9.87B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($711.6M revenue, $38.11B net income) through FY2025, JAKK scaled operating cash flow to $8.5M and free cash flow to -$1.1M, backed by $442.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 40/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of -0.29% and institutional whale pillar of 16/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $14.87 – $33.22 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation and 14.3x EV/EBITDA against 12.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are therefore — Sector and industry are recorded as Consumer Discretionary and Recreational Games/Products/Toys, but no correlation data is provided.

Key Question #1: Can JAKK sustain or expand its 12.6% operating margin and 5.7% ROIC against Recreational Games/Products/Toys peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $113.3M and free cash flow of -$1.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is JAKK's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

JAKK Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to JAKK Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 22h ago

Should Value Investors Buy JAKKS Pacific (JAKK) Stock?

Yahoo Finance report covering JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

JAKKS Pacific (JAKK) Stock Climbs As Q3 Earnings Sharpen Margin Focus

Yahoo Finance report covering JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ:JAKK) Stock Price Breaks Above 200-Day Moving Average - Time to Sell?

MarketBeat report covering JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

CFO surrenders 11,306 shares for tax withholding at JAKKS Pacific (JAKK).

Stock Titan report covering JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Quiver Quantitative • 1d ago

JAKKS PACIFIC ($JAKK) Releases Q3 2026 Earnings

Quiver Quantitative report covering JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Jakks Pacific (JAKK) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates

Yahoo Finance report covering JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST MarketBeat • 1d ago

JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ:JAKK) Stock Rating Upgraded by Zacks Research

MarketBeat report covering JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Sales reach $254.2M as JAKKS Pacific (JAKK) posts higher Q3 profit.

Stock Titan report covering JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

JAKK Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $31.60?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON JAKK 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $38.30 (+22.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Whale 13F flow is the strongest RQD pillar at 15 / 20, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning.

Picked up a starter position in JAKK in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $31.39. Whale 13F flow is the strongest RQD pillar at 15 / 20, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning.. Trading inside a $14.87–$33.22 52-week range with -0.29% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Recreational Games/Products/Toys multiples expand this quarter.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Shorting a 16/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $31.39 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $23.54 (-25.0%)

Spot @ $31.39

The fundamental cash engine scores only 4 / 20, with ROIC at 5.7% and FCF yield at -0.29%.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on JAKK: The fundamental cash engine scores only 4 / 20, with ROIC at 5.7% and FCF yield at -0.29%.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Recreational Games/Products/Toys triggers a 12-15% air pocket.