Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$46.12 -6.16% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.52

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $10.59B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is JEF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (NYSE: JEF) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $46.12 (-6.16% 1D, market cap $10.59B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, JEF ranks #449 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does JEF compare to SF and FRHC in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), JEF carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.9x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 6.0%. By comparison, SF (Stifel Financial Corporation) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 3.4%, cap $10.07B) and FRHC (Freedom Holding Corp.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 76.4x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $11.93B). Among the 5-stock peer group, JEF leads on earnings multiple (7.9x) while SEIC leads on capital efficiency (24.2% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JEF?
β–Ό

Per JEF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-11-30, CIK 0000096223), Jefferies Financial Group Inc. generated $5.55B in revenue (+14.2% YoY), $0 in net income, and -$207.5M in free cash flow against $76.01B in total assets and $29.42B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.52 (-1.30%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 52.7% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D+
025507510058
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- Β· Rk D+
Cash (11)Whales (8)SEC (15)Macro (7)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target
$70 Bull$46 Base$36 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE JEF RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for JEF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±7.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY JEF SCORES 58/100 (D+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 7/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (47.8) create a -13 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
50
Grade C-$43.91+2.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
53
Grade C-$45.03+5.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
55
Grade C$47.51-2.9% Next Q
Current
58
Grade D+$46.12+0% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C- (50) β†’ D+ (58)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the JEF Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, JEF faces multiple-compression risk if 7.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 94.1% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($48.04) or 200D SMA ($50.66) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($46.12) toward Bear Floor ($35.97).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $JEFβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œJEF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
5.11% Total Yield
3.31% Cash ($1.53/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
88/100 β€’ FORTRESS PAYOUT
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
17.2% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (12.9% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $33,646

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $1,719/yr
$11.3K
Yr 1
$12.7K
Yr 2
$14.4K
Yr 3
$16.2K
Yr 4
$18.3K
Yr 5
$20.7K
Yr 6
$23.4K
Yr 7
$26.4K
Yr 8
$29.8K
Yr 9
$33.6K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring JEF)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of JEF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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JEF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -5.04%β–Ό DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $49.15H $49.15L $46.12C $46.12VOL 3.07M
RES: $50.15SUP: $39.22SMA50: $48.04SMA200: $50.66
$65.47$59.29$53.11$46.93$40.75RES $50.15SUP $39.22$46.122026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

JEF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-5.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +14.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JEF today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JEF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for JEF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JEF)

Financials Rank #449 of 1096 βš”οΈ SF vs JEF Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (JEF vs. SF, FRHC, SEIC, VIRT)

Industry: Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service (64 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) ranks #449 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #178 by equity capitalization ($10.59B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JEF leads on earnings valuation at 7.9x trailing P/E, while SEIC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.2% ROIC and β€” gross margin. SEIC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with JEF at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
JEF ACTIVE
Jefferies Financial Group Inc.
D+ 58/100 7.9x β€” 6.0% -6.16% $10.59B Benchmark Subject
SF
Stifel Financial Corporation
D+ 56/100 16.0x β€” 3.4% -2.44% $10.07B /sf-vs-jef β†’
FRHC
Freedom Holding Corp.
D 50/100 76.4x β€” 11.0% +1.81% $11.93B /frhc-vs-jef β†’
SEIC
SEI Investments Company
B- 70/100 17.4x β€” 24.2% -1.25% $12.26B /seic-vs-jef β†’
VIRT
Virtu Financial Inc.
D+ 56/100 β€” β€” 0.0% -0.83% $8.34B /virt-vs-jef β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-11-30 β€’ CIK 0000096223

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-11-30), Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) reported GAAP revenue of $5.55B (+14.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.86B , and +71.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of -$207.5M (+17.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, JEF closed FY2025 with $76.01B in total assets against $29.42B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-11-30 $5.55B $0 $0 -$207.5M $76.01B $29.42B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-11-30 $4.86B $0 $0 -$250.6M $64.36B $24.36B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-11-30 $3.23B $0 -$1.93B -$2.08B $6.21B $1.45B

3. JEF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is JEF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (NYSE: JEF) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $46.12 (-6.16% 1D, market cap $10.59B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, JEF ranks #449 in composite RQD confidence.

How does JEF compare to SF and FRHC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), JEF carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.9x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 6.0%. By comparison, SF (Stifel Financial Corporation) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 3.4%, cap $10.07B) and FRHC (Freedom Holding Corp.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 76.4x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $11.93B). Among the 5-stock peer group, JEF leads on earnings multiple (7.9x) while SEIC leads on capital efficiency (24.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JEF?

Per JEF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-11-30, CIK 0000096223), Jefferies Financial Group Inc. generated $5.55B in revenue (+14.2% YoY), $0 in net income, and -$207.5M in free cash flow against $76.01B in total assets and $29.42B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is JEF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

JEF last traded at $46.12 (-6.16% on volume of 3,073,047 shares), positioning the stock -4.00% below its 50-day simple moving average ($48.04) and -8.96% below its 200-day simple moving average ($50.66). Across its 52-week range of $35.53 to $66.60, JEF sits at the 34.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±7.4% ($42.71 to $49.53).

JEF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

Does JEF pay a dividend and is it safe?

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) offers a 3.31% cash dividend yield ($1.53 annualized) and 5.11% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as FORTRESS PAYOUT.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 58/100 (D+) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

JEF β€” Jefferies Financial Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:15:57Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, JEF scores 63 out of 100, a letter grade of C, with the verdict label "Roarable Hold β€” Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars break down as follows. Fundamental Cash Engine scores 11 of 20, supported by an ROIC of 6% and an FCF yield of 12.51%. Whale 13F Flow scores 12 of 20, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning. Insider Conviction scores 17 of 20, the strongest pillar, based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Macro Regime Fit scores 8 of 20, tied to a beta of 0.95 and sector sensitivity. Forensic Balance Sheet scores 15 of 20, citing an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, a Piotroski F-Score of 7 of 9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5.

For a prospective investor, the profile is mixed. The insider-flow strength and the high FCF yield point to potential upside drivers, while the weak ROIC and the low macro-fit score signal that the valuation discount may reflect real structural concerns rather than mispricing alone. The rating's "Hold" verdict implies a balanced risk-reward rather than a clear directional signal.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
$49.15$11.29B7.96.612.46.183.31%0.95$35.53 - $66.66%

Business

Per the profile section, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating within the Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service industry. Not available in source data for detailed product lines, customer segments, or revenue-generation mechanics beyond the sector and industry classification.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$5546.5M$1713.8M$0.0MN/A$-207.5M$14043.9M$29416.4M
FY 2024$4858.0M$1488.6M$0.0MN/A$-250.6M$12153.4M$24360.7M
FY 2023$3233.2M$455.2M$0.0MN/A$-2079.1MN/A$1452.8M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $3233.2M in FY 2023 to $5546.5M in FY 2025, while operating income rose from $455.2M to $1713.8M over the same span. Reported net income reads $0.0M in each period and EPS is N/A, so the filed bottom line cannot be assessed from this data. Free cash flow was negative in all three periods. Per the market data, operating margin is 32.8%, net margin is 25.6%, and ROIC is 6%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 7 of 9, with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5. Gross margin is listed as 0%, which the source does not explain.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Record banking revenue headline (Yahoo Finance, GREEN light, CATALYST): Coverage frames record banking revenue as insufficient to close the valuation discount.
  • Investor day share decline (Seeking Alpha, YELLOW, MARKET WIRE): Reports the stock sliding as management sought to reassure investors at an investor day.
  • Price forecast coverage (StockInvest.us, YELLOW): Generic forecast commentary; no specific target is stated in the source.
  • Stock analysis coverage (Simply Wall St, YELLOW): General analysis; no specific finding is quoted in the source.
  • 60% run commentary (Yahoo Finance, YELLOW): Describes the stock as hard to call following a 60% run.
  • Up 3.5% commentary (GuruFocus, YELLOW): Notes a 3.5% gain while still described as undervalued in the headline; the source excerpt is truncated.

No proprietary signals are present in the Butterfly graph. Risk watch items include the investor-day sell-off and the valuation-discount framing.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain is NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the provided data. Investors should note that the sector classification alone provides no quantified linkage.

Open Questions

  • Why do the filed net income and EPS figures read $0.0M and N/A while operating income is positive and growing?
  • What drives the negative free cash flow across FY 2023 through FY 2025 despite rising operating income?
  • What explains the 0% gross margin figure, and how does it reconcile with the reported operating and net margins?
  • What specific factors underlie the "valuation discount" framing in the record-revenue coverage?
  • What insider, 13F, and Congressional transactions make up the cluster flow behind the 17 of 20 insider score?

JEF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to JEF Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

JEF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $46.12?

πŸ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON JEF 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on JEF:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk βš–οΈ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $53.08 (+8.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is JEF (C β€’ RQD 63/100) a Buy at $49.15?

Welcome to the JEF (Jefferies Financial Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 63/100 (Roarable Hold β€” Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

BE BearTrap_Alert Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $38.83 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $49.15

Pump the brakes on JEF β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on JEF, but look at what you are paying: 7.9x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Jefferies Financial Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $58.49 (+19.0%)
Spot @ $49.15

JEF cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on JEF, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $49.15 (52-wk range $35.53 - $66.60), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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