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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / JMKE / financials
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Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. (JMKE) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$18.81 +2.84% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.87

Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. (JMKE) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $5.81B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is JMKE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. (NYSE: JMKE) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $18.81 (+2.84% 1D, market cap $5.81B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, JMKE ranks #609 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does JMKE compare to CAKE and CAVA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), JMKE carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 2.4%. By comparison, CAKE (Cheesecake Factory Incorporated) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 38.0x, ROIC 18.9%, cap $5.61B) and CAVA (CAVA Group Inc.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 108.5x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $6.86B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WING leads on earnings multiple (22.6x) while WING leads on capital efficiency (45.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JMKE?
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Per JMKE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0002127043), Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. generated $3.44B in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $8.18B in total assets and $2.06B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.87 (+0.32%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510047
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C-
Cash (6)Whales (7)SEC (14)Macro (10)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.9% Base Target
$26 Bull$18 Base$14 Bear
📬 FREE JMKE RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for JMKE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY JMKE SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.30 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (21% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 32% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 52.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 14 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
39
Grade E$17.02+3.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
42
Grade D$17.66-1.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
44
Grade D$17.43+7.9% Next Q
Current
47
Grade D$18.81-5.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (39) → D (47)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a JMKE Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While JMKE currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($18.75) and Max Pain ($19.75) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $26.24.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $JMKE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “JMKE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 27, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 47%NO 53%Trade / Inspect Odds →
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How JMKE Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)
Revenue$3.44BGross Profit $0 (0%)Cost of Sales $3.44BOp Profit $0 (0%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $0Net Profit$0 (0%)Tax/Other $0

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow
FY25
Rev $3.44B
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$3.44B0%0%$0$00%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring JMKE)

  • ✓Walkthrough of JMKE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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JMKE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.04%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $18.79H $18.81L $18.29C $18.81VOL 2.90M
RES: $18.61SUP: $13.21SMA50: $18.75SMA200: $19.85
$25.62$23.00$20.38$17.77$15.15RES $18.61SUP $13.21$18.812026-07-302026-08-242026-09-172026-10-122026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

JMKE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 JMKE Butterfly Map → + Track JMKE →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
25.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JMKE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JMKE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for JMKE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JMKE)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #609 of 1011 ⚔️ CAKE vs JMKE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (JMKE vs. CAKE, CAVA, BROS, WING)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. (JMKE) ranks #609 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #244 by equity capitalization ($5.81B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WING leads on earnings valuation at 22.6x trailing P/E, while WING leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 45.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CAKE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with JMKE at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
JMKE ACTIVE
Jersey Mike's Subs Inc.
D 47/100 32.8x — 2.4% +2.84% $5.81B Benchmark Subject
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
B- 71/100 38.0x — 18.9% +0.28% $5.61B /cake-vs-jmke →
CAVA
CAVA Group Inc.
D 51/100 108.5x — 5.9% +5.64% $6.86B /cava-vs-jmke →
BROS
Dutch Bros Inc.
D+ 57/100 96.2x 25.9% 20.7% +2.33% $7.49B /bros-vs-jmke →
WING
Wingstop Inc.
C+ 66/100 22.6x — 45.0% +8.89% $4.05B /wing-vs-jmke →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-28 • CIK 0002127043 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28), Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. (JMKE) reported GAAP revenue of $3.44B , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, JMKE closed FY2025 with $8.18B in total assets against $2.06B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.30, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-28 $3.44B $0 $0 $0 $8.18B $2.06B

3. JMKE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is JMKE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. (NYSE: JMKE) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $18.81 (+2.84% 1D, market cap $5.81B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, JMKE ranks #609 in composite RQD confidence.

How does JMKE compare to CAKE and CAVA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), JMKE carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 2.4%. By comparison, CAKE (Cheesecake Factory Incorporated) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 38.0x, ROIC 18.9%, cap $5.61B) and CAVA (CAVA Group Inc.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 108.5x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $6.86B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WING leads on earnings multiple (22.6x) while WING leads on capital efficiency (45.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JMKE?

Per JMKE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0002127043), Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. generated $3.44B in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $8.18B in total assets and $2.06B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is JMKE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

JMKE last traded at $18.81 (+2.84% on volume of 4,254,773 shares), positioning the stock +0.32% above its 50-day simple moving average ($18.75) and -5.24% below its 200-day simple moving average ($19.85). Across its 52-week range of $15.96 to $24.99, JMKE sits at the 31.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.5% ($16.65 to $20.97).

Direct Sub-Reports: JMKE RQD Cockpit JMKE 12M Forecast JMKE Earnings & Move JMKE Dividends & DRIP JMKE Insiders & 13F JMKE Whale Options JMKE Profit Sankey JMKE News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 47/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

JMKE — Jersey Mike's Subs Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-28

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. (JMKE) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 47/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $18.81 (+2.84% 1D, market capitalization $5.81B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 2.4%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.15x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.30, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.35x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Restaurants industry. Market data shows an operating margin of 13.9% and a net margin of 10.9%, while gross margin is listed as 0%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-28), Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. (JMKE) reported $3.44B in annual revenue and $0 in GAAP net income. Operating cash flow reached $0 and free cash flow totaled $0, backed by $8.18B in total assets against $2.06B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 47/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 2.21% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $15.96 – $24.99 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 32.8x trailing P/E and 26.3x EV/EBITDA against 13.9% operating margins and a 1.15x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector information is the classification as Consumer Discretionary, Restaurants. The one second-order signal the news set does contain is the valuation tension: a price-target cut on valuation (Mizuho) coexisting with upgrade-style commentary suggests that the debate centers on whether the multiple is justified. A prospective investor should watch for the fiscal third quarter results, since those are the next scheduled disclosure in the news set.

  • Key Question #1: Can JMKE sustain or expand its 13.9% operating margin and 2.4% ROIC against Restaurants peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.44B and free cash flow of $0, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.06B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is JMKE's 30.5x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.15x)?

JMKE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. (JMKE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to JMKE Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

JMKE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $18.81?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON JMKE 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on JMKE:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $22.31 (+22.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet scores 14/20 with Piotroski F 8/9 and Debt/Equity 0.35 while the stock rose 7.8% on positive catalyst coverage.

Picked up a starter position in JMKE in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $18.29. Forensic balance sheet scores 14/20 with Piotroski F 8/9 and Debt/Equity 0.35 while the stock rose 7.8% on positive catalyst coverage.. Trading inside a $15.96–$24.99 52-week range with 2.21% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Restaurants multiples expand this quarter.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@CashFlowKing Agree on the RQD 47/100 quality, though with 1.15 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $18.29 and keeping dry powder in case we test $17.01.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $15.18 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $18.29

A 32.8 trailing P/E against a 2.4% ROIC and 2.21% FCF yield leaves the valuation unsupported by cash generation, with a Mizuho price-ta

A 32.8 trailing P/E against a 2.4% ROIC and 2.21% FCF yield leaves the valuation unsupported by cash generation, with a Mizuho price-target cut on valuation.. Look at the math on JMKE: paying 32.8x trailing P/E for 2.4% ROIC and 13.9% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Restaurants demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $16.10 before getting long.

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