Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-03, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ: KALU) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $116.28 (-2.96% 1D, market cap $1.90B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, KALU ranks #235 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), KALU carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.3x, gross margin of 13.1%, and ROIC of 7.9%. By comparison, HLIO (Helios Technologies Inc.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 46.5x, ROIC 4.7%, cap $2.18B) and PRLB (Proto Labs Inc.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E 87.4x, ROIC 3.5%, cap $1.64B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KALU leads on earnings multiple (17.3x) while KALU leads on capital efficiency (7.9% ROIC).
Per KALU's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000811596), Kaiser Aluminum Corporation generated $3.37B in revenue (+11.5% YoY), $113.0M in net income, and $111.4M in free cash flow against $2.56B in total assets and $1.06B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)
Altman Z-Score 2.70 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)
While KALU currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($147.11) and Max Pain ($122.09) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $209.88.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) dropped -2.96% to $116.28, trading at 25% of its 52-week range ($88 – $199.89). Stretched risk/reward at 17x P/E (8% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Business Wire report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Third Avenue Management, an investment management company, released its third-quarter 2026 investor letter for the “Third Avenue Small-Cap Value Fund”. The letter can be downloaded here. The Third Avenue Small-Cap Value
Third Avenue Management, an investment management company, released its third-quarter 2026 investor letter for the “Third Avenue Small-Cap Value Fund”. The letter can be downloaded here. The Third Avenue Small-Cap Value
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +11.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on KALU today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for KALU. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) ranks #235 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #212 by equity capitalization ($1.90B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KALU leads on earnings valuation at 17.3x trailing P/E, while KALU leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.9% ROIC and 13.1% gross margin. RYZ currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 54/100 (D+) compared with KALU at 49/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KALU
ACTIVE
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation | D | 49/100 | 17.3x | 13.1% | 7.9% | -2.96% | $1.90B | Benchmark Subject |
| HLIO Helios Technologies Inc. | D+ | 52/100 | 46.5x | 32.3% | 4.7% | -3.09% | $2.18B | /hlio-vs-kalu → |
| PRLB Proto Labs Inc. | D | 45/100 | 87.4x | 44.5% | 3.5% | -11.27% | $1.64B | /prlb-vs-kalu → |
| RYZ Ryerson Holding Corporation | D+ | 54/100 | — | 17.1% | -3.4% | +0.48% | $1.61B | /ryz-vs-kalu → |
| SMR NuScale Power Corporation | E | 26/100 | — | 36.3% | -35.0% | -5.07% | $2.42B | /smr-vs-kalu → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) reported GAAP revenue of $3.37B (+11.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.02B , and +9.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $113.0M, operating cash flow of $111.4M, and free cash flow of $111.4M (-33.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, KALU closed FY2025 with $2.56B in total assets against $1.06B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.70, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $3.37B | $113.0M | $111.4M | $111.4M | $2.56B | $1.06B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $3.02B | $47.0M | $167.1M | $167.1M | $2.41B | $1.04B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $3.09B | $47.0M | $211.9M | $211.9M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-03, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ: KALU) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $116.28 (-2.96% 1D, market cap $1.90B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, KALU ranks #235 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), KALU carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.3x, gross margin of 13.1%, and ROIC of 7.9%. By comparison, HLIO (Helios Technologies Inc.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 46.5x, ROIC 4.7%, cap $2.18B) and PRLB (Proto Labs Inc.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E 87.4x, ROIC 3.5%, cap $1.64B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KALU leads on earnings multiple (17.3x) while KALU leads on capital efficiency (7.9% ROIC).
Per KALU's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000811596), Kaiser Aluminum Corporation generated $3.37B in revenue (+11.5% YoY), $113.0M in net income, and $111.4M in free cash flow against $2.56B in total assets and $1.06B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
KALU last traded at $116.28 (-2.96% on volume of 459,265 shares), positioning the stock -20.96% below its 50-day simple moving average ($147.11) and -24.10% below its 200-day simple moving average ($153.21). Across its 52-week range of $88.00 to $199.89, KALU sits at the 25.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.7% ($105.00 to $127.56).
Why KALU Stock dropped -2.96% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 17x P/E (8% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Per the Roarable RQD rating, KALU scores 50 out of 100, a letter grade of D, labeled "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20 (ROIC 7.9%; FCF yield 5.69%), Whale 13F Flow 5/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction 15/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit 8/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet 12/20 (Altman Z 2.7; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 1.28). For a prospective investor, the weakest pillars are institutional flow and macro/sector fit, which together suggest the rating's distribution warning is driven more by positioning and cyclicality than by balance-sheet distress. The strongest pillar, insider conviction, is the one signal in the rating that leans constructive. The rating frames the stock as a poor relative-value candidate today, not as a company in acute financial stress.
Per the profile, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, operating in the Metal Fabrications industry. The source data does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model beyond this classification. Reported financials show a revenue base of $3373.0M for FY 2025, indicating a sizable manufacturing-scale operation.
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $3373.0M | $188.8M | $113.0M | N/A | $111.4M | $7.0M | $1059.6M |
| FY 2024 | $3024.0M | $112.2M | $47.0M | N/A | $167.1M | $18.4M | $1041.6M |
| FY 2023 | $3087.0M | $122.5M | $47.0M | N/A | $211.9M | N/A | N/A |
Per the market data, gross margin is 13.1%, operating margin 5.6%, and net margin 3.4%, with ROIC at 7.9%. Per the RQD pillars, the Altman Z-Score is 2.7 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, with Debt/Equity at 1.28. Reported free cash flow declined from $211.9M in FY 2023 to $111.4M in FY 2025 while debt rose from $1041.6M to $1059.6M over FY 2024–FY 2025, and year-end cash was $7.0M in FY 2025. Net income improved from $47.0M to $113.0M across the same period.
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Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Business Wire report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Welcome to the KALU (Kaiser Aluminum Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 50/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Metal Fabrications. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on KALU, but look at what you are paying: 17.3x trailing P/E with 13.1% gross margins. Unless Kaiser Aluminum Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on KALU, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Metal Fabrications and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $119.83 (52-wk range $87.89 - $199.89), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.
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