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Why KOS Stock surged +4.86% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$2.59 +4.86% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.61

Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.47B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is KOS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Kosmos Energy Ltd. (NYSE: KOS) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $2.59 (+4.86% 1D, market cap $1.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, KOS ranks #124 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does KOS compare to GFR and NBR in the Energy sector?
▼

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), KOS carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GFR (Greenfire Resources Ltd.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.48B) and NBR (Nabors Industries Ltd.) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E 5.2x, ROIC 21.1%, cap $1.42B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NBR leads on earnings multiple (5.2x) while NBR leads on capital efficiency (21.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KOS?
▼

Per KOS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001509991), Kosmos Energy Ltd. generated $1.29B in revenue (-23.1% YoY), -$699.8M in net income, and $134.0M in free cash flow against $4.70B in total assets and $2.92B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.61 (+0.68%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 10.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510052
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C- · Rk D-
Cash (12)Whales (16)SEC (5)Macro (11)CEO (8)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target
$4 Bull$3 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE KOS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for KOS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY KOS SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (31% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.3% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 10.4% FCF Margin ($134.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 15 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
60
Grade C$2.71-0.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
57
Grade C$2.70+2.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
55
Grade C$2.76-6.2% Next Q
Current
52
Grade D+$2.59-1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (60) → D+ (52)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a KOS Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While KOS currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.75) and Max Pain ($2.72) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.51.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $KOS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “KOS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why KOS Stock surged +4.86% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS) surged +4.86% to $2.59, trading at 70% of its 52-week range ($0.84 – $3.34). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 70% of its 52-week range ($0.84 – $3.34) with RSI-14 at 40.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±11.3% around $2.59 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $134.0M annual free cash flow.
Live KOS Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring KOS)

  • ✓Walkthrough of KOS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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KOS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -16.99%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-04O $2.85H $2.85L $2.47C $2.59VOL 39.41M
RES: $3.18SUP: $2.57SMA50: $2.75SMA200: $2.54
$3.45$3.00$2.55$2.11$1.66RES $3.18SUP $2.57$2.592026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

KOS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 KOS Butterfly Map → + Track KOS →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -23.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on KOS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for KOS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for KOS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (KOS)

Energy Rank #124 of 211 ⚔️ GFR vs KOS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (KOS vs. GFR, NBR, PBT, PDS)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS) ranks #124 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #127 by equity capitalization ($1.47B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NBR leads on earnings valuation at 5.2x trailing P/E, while NBR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.1% ROIC and — gross margin. PDS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with KOS at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
KOS ACTIVE
Kosmos Energy Ltd.
D+ 52/100 — — -35.0% +4.86% $1.47B Benchmark Subject
GFR
Greenfire Resources Ltd.
C- 59/100 — — — +0.33% $1.48B /gfr-vs-kos →
NBR
Nabors Industries Ltd.
D 44/100 5.2x — 21.1% -4.09% $1.42B /nbr-vs-kos →
PBT
Permian Basin Royalty Trust
D+ 57/100 — — — -8.10% $1.42B /pbt-vs-kos →
PDS
Precision Drilling Corporation
C 63/100 — — — -1.25% $1.22B /pds-vs-kos →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001509991 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS) reported GAAP revenue of $1.29B (-23.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.68B , and -25.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$699.8M, operating cash flow of $134.0M, and free cash flow of $134.0M (-80.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, KOS closed FY2025 with $4.70B in total assets against $2.92B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.29B -$699.8M $134.0M $134.0M $4.70B $2.92B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.68B $189.9M $678.2M $678.2M $5.31B $2.74B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.72B $213.5M $765.2M $765.2M — —

3. KOS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is KOS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Kosmos Energy Ltd. (NYSE: KOS) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $2.59 (+4.86% 1D, market cap $1.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, KOS ranks #124 in composite RQD confidence.

How does KOS compare to GFR and NBR in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), KOS carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GFR (Greenfire Resources Ltd.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.48B) and NBR (Nabors Industries Ltd.) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E 5.2x, ROIC 21.1%, cap $1.42B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NBR leads on earnings multiple (5.2x) while NBR leads on capital efficiency (21.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KOS?

Per KOS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001509991), Kosmos Energy Ltd. generated $1.29B in revenue (-23.1% YoY), -$699.8M in net income, and $134.0M in free cash flow against $4.70B in total assets and $2.92B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is KOS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

KOS last traded at $2.59 (+4.86% on volume of 24,218,640 shares), positioning the stock -5.82% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.75) and +1.97% above its 200-day simple moving average ($2.54). Across its 52-week range of $0.84 to $3.34, KOS sits at the 70.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.3% ($2.30 to $2.88).

Direct Sub-Reports: KOS RQD Cockpit KOS 12M Forecast KOS Earnings & Move KOS Dividends & DRIP KOS Insiders & 13F KOS Whale Options KOS Profit Sankey KOS News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 52/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

KOS — Kosmos Energy Ltd.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 52/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $2.59 (+4.86% 1D, market capitalization $1.47B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 8.40%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (16/20) + Insider Conviction (8/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (5/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of 5.53x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, operating in the Oil & Gas Production industry. Its market capitalization is $1.6B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS) reported $1.29B in annual revenue (up from $1.68B in FY2024, -23.1% YoY) and -$699.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.72B revenue, $213.5M net income) through FY2025, KOS scaled operating cash flow to $134.0M and free cash flow to $134.0M, backed by $4.70B in total assets against $2.92B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 52/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of 8.40% and institutional whale pillar of 16/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.84 – $3.34 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Oil & Gas Production (Energy), KOS carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can KOS sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.29B and free cash flow of $134.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.92B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is KOS's equity valuation to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

KOS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to KOS Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

KOS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.59?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON KOS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on KOS:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.73 (+30.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the market data, the stock has a positive 8.4% FCF yield and rose 200% year-to-date per the news wire.

Don't sleep on KOS's setup in Energy. Per the market data, the stock has a positive 8.4% FCF yield and rose 200% year-to-date per the news wire.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (52/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — KOS's 5/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.34 (-17.9%)
Spot @ $2.85

Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 5/20 with Debt/Equity of 5.53 and Piotroski F-Score of 3/9.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on KOS: Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 5/20 with Debt/Equity of 5.53 and Piotroski F-Score of 3/9.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Oil & Gas Production triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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