Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (KPTI) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$0.66 -24.76% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.63

Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (KPTI) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 29/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $15.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is KPTI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: KPTI) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $0.66 (-24.76% 1D, market cap $15.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, KPTI ranks #847 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does KPTI compare to NCEL and RADX in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), KPTI carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, NCEL (NewcelX Ltd.) holds a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $14.7M) and RADX (Radiopharm Theranostics Limited) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $15.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, KPTI leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while KPTI leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KPTI?
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Per KPTI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001503802), Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. generated $146.1M in revenue (+0.6% YoY), -$196.0M in net income, and -$75.4M in free cash flow against $108.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.63 (-4.65%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510029
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (9)Whales (3)SEC (8)Macro (6)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.6% Base Target
$12 Bull$1 Base$0 Bear
📬 FREE KPTI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for KPTI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (29/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY KPTI SCORES 29/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
21
Grade E$0.43-16.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
24
Grade E$0.36+33.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
26
Grade E$0.48+37.5% Next Q
Current
29
Grade E$0.66-9.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (21) → E (29)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a KPTI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While KPTI currently carries a cautious 29/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.18) and Max Pain ($0.69) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $11.54.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $KPTI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “KPTI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.08 Expected Swing
$1.00 (-12.5%)Spot $0.66$0.74 (+12.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

KPTI Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 29/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 0.6%

Model Bullish Setup (29/100)Model Risk Weight (71/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$146.1M-$196.0M-$75.4M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$145.2M-$76.4M-$127.6M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$146.0M-$143.1M-$92.7M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring KPTI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of KPTI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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KPTI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -92.90%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $0.88H $0.88L $0.66C $0.66VOL 3.52M
RES: $0.91SUP: $-0.15SMA50: $1.18SMA200: $5.98
$11.60$8.54$5.48$2.42$-0.64RES $0.91SUP $-0.15$0.662026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

KPTI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +0.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on KPTI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for KPTI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for KPTI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (KPTI)

Health Care Rank #847 of 1016 ⚔️ NCEL vs KPTI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (KPTI vs. NCEL, RADX, CTXR, AEON)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (KPTI) ranks #847 by composite RQD confidence (29/100, grade E) and #856 by equity capitalization ($15.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KPTI leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while KPTI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. RADX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with KPTI at 29/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
KPTI ACTIVE
Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc.
E 29/100 — — -35.0% -24.76% $15.0M Benchmark Subject
NCEL
NewcelX Ltd.
E 28/100 — — -35.0% -5.27% $14.7M /ncel-vs-kpti →
RADX
Radiopharm Theranostics Limited
D 46/100 — — — -3.26% $15.6M /radx-vs-kpti →
CTXR
Citius Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D- 40/100 — — -35.0% -7.10% $14.4M /ctxr-vs-kpti →
AEON
AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A)
D 46/100 — — -35.0% -6.80% $16.2M /aeon-vs-kpti →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001503802

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (KPTI) reported GAAP revenue of $146.1M (+0.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $145.2M , and +0.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$196.0M, operating cash flow of -$75.4M, and free cash flow of -$75.4M (+40.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, KPTI closed FY2025 with $108.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $146.1M -$196.0M -$75.4M -$75.4M $108.4M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $145.2M -$76.4M -$127.5M -$127.6M $164.4M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $146.0M -$143.1M -$92.7M -$92.7M — —

3. KPTI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is KPTI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: KPTI) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $0.66 (-24.76% 1D, market cap $15.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, KPTI ranks #847 in composite RQD confidence.

How does KPTI compare to NCEL and RADX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), KPTI carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, NCEL (NewcelX Ltd.) holds a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $14.7M) and RADX (Radiopharm Theranostics Limited) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $15.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, KPTI leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while KPTI leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KPTI?

Per KPTI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001503802), Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. generated $146.1M in revenue (+0.6% YoY), -$196.0M in net income, and -$75.4M in free cash flow against $108.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is KPTI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

KPTI last traded at $0.66 (-24.76% on volume of 3,523,445 shares), positioning the stock -44.07% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.18) and -88.96% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.98). Across its 52-week range of $0.31 to $10.99, KPTI sits at the 3.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.74).

KPTI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is KPTI's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (KPTI)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is KPTI stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for KPTI, spanning a range between $1 and $0.74.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 29/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

KPTI — Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:49:55Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, KPTI scores 31 out of 100 for an E grade, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 9 / 20 (ROIC -35%; FCF yield 0%), Whale 13F Flow at 5 / 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 3 / 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 6 / 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 8 / 20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 2/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). Every pillar sits well below half its maximum, with the weakest readings in insider conviction and institutional flow. For a prospective investor, the upside case rests on an unusually large gap between the current price and the 52-week high, but the score pattern indicates that the fundamental cash engine and insider signals do not currently support that case. The valuation tradeoff is that a $0.88 price against a $20.0M market cap, paired with negative operating and net margins, leaves little cushion if reported losses persist. The second-order implication is that cash reserves and financing needs, rather than revenue growth, will likely drive the outcome. This is an analytical summary of the source data, not personalized financial advice.

Business

Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry, per the company profile. The source data does not describe its specific products, customers, or revenue model. The FY 2025 SEC financials report revenue of $146.1M, indicating ongoing commercial or collaboration revenue, but the source does not identify its source. The source data does not establish how the company monetizes its activities beyond these reported figures.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$146.1M$-90.7M$-196.0MN/A$-75.4M$60.5MN/A
FY 2024$145.2M$-119.4M$-76.4MN/A$-127.6M$62.5MN/A
FY 2023$146.0M$-129.5M$-143.1MN/A$-92.7MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue has been essentially flat across the three periods while operating losses persisted in each. Per the market data, gross margin is 0%, operating margin is -60%, net margin is -60%, and ROIC is -35%. The Roarable RQD rating reports an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5. The FY 2025 cash balance of $60.5M is reported against a FY 2025 free cash flow of $-75.4M, which the source data does not reconcile with a debt figure, as debt is listed as N/A.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, six items reference KPTI, all labeled YELLOW with impact label MARKET WIRE. The headlines reference an announced planned merger with Ayrmid Ltd., described by PR Newswire as a step to strengthen the company for the future. Other items include a TradingView estimates report, a Yahoo Finance seasonal returns chart, a Kalkine share price update, a kalkine.ca item noting a 12% price rise with no apparent news, and a Stock Titan report stating that four reporting parties list the same stake. Risk watch items include the unexplained 12% move and the planned merger, whose terms the source data does not provide. The Butterfly supply-chain graph reports no supply chain and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. The source data therefore identifies no upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations beyond the broad Health Care classification. A prospective investor should watch for any second-order effects of the planned Ayrmid merger on financing and cash runway, given the reported FY 2025 free cash flow of $-75.4M. Because beta is 1.0, the source does not indicate how the stock would respond to sector-wide moves beyond that market-sensitivity figure.

Open Questions

  • What are the terms and expected timeline of the planned merger with Ayrmid Ltd., and how would they affect shareholders?
  • What drove the 12% price increase referenced in the kalkine.ca item, given that no news was identified?
  • What is the company's debt position, since debt is listed as N/A despite a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5?
  • What are the company's specific products, revenue sources, and customer concentration?
  • What are the EPS figures and full cash runway, since EPS is N/A across all periods?

KPTI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (KPTI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to KPTI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

KPTI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $0.66?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON KPTI 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on KPTI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.77 (-12.5%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is KPTI (E • RQD 31/100) a Buy at $0.88?

Welcome to the KPTI (Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 31/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

BE BearTrap_Alert Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.67 (-23.9%)
Spot @ $0.88

Pump the brakes on KPTI — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on KPTI, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MA MacroHawk_NYC Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.12 (+27.3%)
Spot @ $0.88

KPTI cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on KPTI, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $0.88 (52-wk range $0.31 - $10.99), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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