CATALYSTYahoo Finance • 1d ago
Lionsgate Studios (LION) Could Be 41% Overvalued Following Its Recent RallyYahoo Finance report covering Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why LION Stock dropped -2.49% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$12.14 -2.49% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.06
Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $3.70B
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Is LION stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Lionsgate Studios Corp (NYSE: LION) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $12.14 (-2.49% 1D, market cap $3.70B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, LION ranks #37 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does LION compare to CNK and AMC in the Communication Services sector?
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Within the Communication Services sector (Movies/Entertainment), LION carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 25.1%. By comparison, CNK (Cinemark Holdings Inc Cinemark Holdings Inc.) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 33.6x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $4.54B) and AMC (AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.8%, cap $2.73B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CNK leads on earnings multiple (33.6x) while LION leads on capital efficiency (25.1% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LION?
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Per LION's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0002052959), Lionsgate Studios Corp generated $2.63B in revenue (+1.8% YoY), -$198.3M in net income, and $11.4M in free cash flow against $5.24B in total assets and $1.76B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.06 (-0.64%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 0.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C+ · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LION)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY LION SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (26% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.4% FCF Margin ($11.4M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (22% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.8% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 12 pts from forensic ceiling
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$10.89+16.4% Next Q
50
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$12.68-3.8% Next Q
53
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$12.20-0.5% Next Q
55
CurrentGrade D+$12.14+0% Hist 90D α
58
Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the LION Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, LION faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.49) or 200D SMA ($11.68) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($12.14) toward Bear Floor ($9.47).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LION• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “LION Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why LION Stock dropped -2.49% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) dropped -2.49% to $12.14, trading at 56% of its 52-week range ($6.25 – $16.7). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (25% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 56% of its 52-week range ($6.25 – $16.7) with RSI-14 at 57.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.8% around $12.14 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $11.4M annual free cash flow.
Live LION Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 1d ago
Why Is Lionsgate Studios Stock Surging Tuesday? - Lionsgate Studios (NYSE:LION)Benzinga report covering Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIRESeeking Alpha • 1d ago
Lionsgate Studios: Legendary Entertainment Is Back (NYSE:LION)Seeking Alpha report covering Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
CATALYSTInvesting.com • 1d ago
Lionsgate Studios stock gains on takeover interest, StoneX saysInvesting.com report covering Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
CATALYSTDeadline • 1d ago
Liongate Stock Jumps On Report Of Takeover Offer By LegendaryDeadline report covering Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 1d ago
LION Stock Rallies As Dune Producer Reportedly Puts Offer On The Table For The Hunger Games StudioYahoo Finance report covering Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
CATALYSTSimply Wall Street • 1d ago
Lionsgate Studios (LION) Following Its Rally Faces A Fair Value Reality CheckSimply Wall Street report covering Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
CATALYSTSeeking Alpha • 2d ago
Lionsgate shares rally on Legendary offer -- Bloomberg (LION:NYSE)Seeking Alpha report covering Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREFintel • 4d ago
Starz Entertainment Corp. Reports Results for the Third Quarter Ended September 30, 2026MARKET WIREYahoo • 6d ago
Lionsgate in Investor Talks for Rare Film Library-Backed BondsLionsgate Studios Corp., the filmmaker behind The Hunger Games and other titles, is looking to sell bonds backed by its catalog and talking to investors about a possible transaction.
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LION)
- ✓Walkthrough of LION's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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LION // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.80%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $12.85H $12.85L $12.14C $12.14VOL 2.70M
RES: $13.02SUP: $10.04SMA50: $11.49SMA200: $11.68
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
LION Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
12.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +1.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LION today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LION. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LION today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LION)
Communication Services Rank #37 of 132
⚔️ CNK vs LION Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Communication Services Peer Comparison (LION vs. CNK, AMC, FUBO, MCS)
Industry: Movies/Entertainment (14 Tracked Issuers)Across 132 tracked Communication Services securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) ranks #37 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #47 by equity capitalization ($3.70B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CNK leads on earnings valuation at 33.6x trailing P/E, while LION leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 25.1% ROIC and — gross margin. CNK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with LION at 58/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LION
ACTIVE
Lionsgate Studios Corp | D+ | 58/100 | — | — | 25.1% | -2.49% | $3.70B | Benchmark Subject |
| CNK Cinemark Holdings Inc Cinemark Holdings Inc. | B | 72/100 | 33.6x | — | 9.2% | -1.12% | $4.54B | /cnk-vs-lion → |
| AMC AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. | D | 45/100 | — | — | -0.8% | +4.25% | $2.73B | /amc-vs-lion → |
| FUBO FuboTV Inc. (Class A) | D | 45/100 | — | — | — | -0.13% | $832.1M | /fubo-vs-lion → |
| MCS Marcus Corporation | D- | 43/100 | 68.2x | — | 2.3% | +0.49% | $825.5M | /mcs-vs-lion → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-31 • CIK 0002052959 ↗In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) reported GAAP revenue of $2.63B (+1.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.58B , and +7.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$198.3M, operating cash flow of $24.8M, and free cash flow of $11.4M (+106.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, LION closed FY2025 with $5.24B in total assets against $1.76B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.45, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2026-03-31 | $2.63B | -$198.3M | $24.8M | $11.4M | $5.24B | $1.76B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2025-03-31 | $2.58B | -$362.0M | -$166.0M | -$179.5M | $3.10B | $725.8M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2024-03-31 | $2.45B | -$1.10B | $396.8M | $286.5M | $2.94B | $688.0M |
3. LION Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs LION stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Lionsgate Studios Corp (NYSE: LION) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $12.14 (-2.49% 1D, market cap $3.70B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, LION ranks #37 in composite RQD confidence.
How does LION compare to CNK and AMC in the Communication Services sector?
Within the Communication Services sector (Movies/Entertainment), LION carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 25.1%. By comparison, CNK (Cinemark Holdings Inc Cinemark Holdings Inc.) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 33.6x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $4.54B) and AMC (AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.8%, cap $2.73B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CNK leads on earnings multiple (33.6x) while LION leads on capital efficiency (25.1% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LION?
Per LION's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0002052959), Lionsgate Studios Corp generated $2.63B in revenue (+1.8% YoY), -$198.3M in net income, and $11.4M in free cash flow against $5.24B in total assets and $1.76B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is LION trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
LION last traded at $12.14 (-2.49% on volume of 3,123,613 shares), positioning the stock +5.66% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.49) and +3.94% above its 200-day simple moving average ($11.68). Across its 52-week range of $6.25 to $16.70, LION sits at the 56.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.8% ($10.95 to $13.33).
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 58/100 (D+)
✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED
LION — Lionsgate Studios Corp: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-03-31
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 58/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $12.14 (-2.49% 1D, market capitalization $3.70B).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 25.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 3.7%, and free cash flow yield of 0.30%.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.16x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.45, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.85x.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Communication Services sector and the Movies/Entertainment industry, . Reported revenue across the financial periods (see below) indicates an operating scale in the low-single-digit billions of dollars, .
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-03-31), Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) reported $2.63B in annual revenue (up from $2.58B in FY2024, +1.8% YoY) and -$198.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.45B revenue, -$1.10B net income) through FY2025, LION scaled operating cash flow to $24.8M and free cash flow to $11.4M, backed by $5.24B in total assets against $1.76B in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 58/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Free cash flow yield of 0.30% and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $6.25 – $16.70 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh current valuation and 49.8x EV/EBITDA against 3.7% operating margins and a 1.16x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore — The only sector-level context is the Communication Services and Movies/Entertainment classification, with beta of 1.16 per the Market Data section, which indicates above-market sensitivity to broad market moves.
- Key Question #1: Can LION sustain or expand its 3.7% operating margin and 25.1% ROIC against Movies/Entertainment peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.63B and free cash flow of $11.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.76B in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is LION's 19.0x forward P/E multiple to Communication Services capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.16x)?
LION Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago
Lionsgate Studios (LION) Could Be 41% Overvalued Following Its Recent Rally Yahoo Finance report covering Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 1d ago
Why Is Lionsgate Studios Stock Surging Tuesday? - Lionsgate Studios (NYSE:LION) Benzinga report covering Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago
Lionsgate Studios: Legendary Entertainment Is Back (NYSE:LION) Seeking Alpha report covering Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟢 CATALYST Investing.com • 1d ago
Lionsgate Studios stock gains on takeover interest, StoneX says Investing.com report covering Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟢 CATALYST Deadline • 1d ago
Liongate Stock Jumps On Report Of Takeover Offer By Legendary Deadline report covering Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago
LION Stock Rallies As Dune Producer Reportedly Puts Offer On The Table For The Hunger Games Studio Yahoo Finance report covering Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟢 CATALYST Simply Wall Street • 1d ago
Lionsgate Studios (LION) Following Its Rally Faces A Fair Value Reality Check Simply Wall Street report covering Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 2d ago
Lionsgate shares rally on Legendary offer -- Bloomberg (LION:NYSE) Seeking Alpha report covering Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE
3 Active Posts & Replies
LION Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $12.14?
🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LION 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH
🎯 Target: $15.81 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate Reported takeover interest from Legendary Entertainment and a 25.1% ROIC point to upside if the approach materializes.
Reported takeover interest from Legendary Entertainment and a 25.1% ROIC point to upside if the approach materializes.. When you look under the hood at LION, Fundamental Cash Engine is 15/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 25.1% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (13/20) has been quietly accumulating below $16.70. My 12M target is $15.81.
SectorRotator 🐂 BULL
@ForensicBear Fair point on 19.0x forward P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Movies/Entertainment. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.
FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $10.21 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $12.45 An Altman Z-Score of 0.45, Debt rising to $1.76B, and an FCF yield of 0.3% leave the balance sheet fragile.
An Altman Z-Score of 0.45, Debt rising to $1.76B, and an FCF yield of 0.3% leave the balance sheet fragile.. Look at the math on LION: paying 19.0x forward P/E for 25.1% ROIC and 3.7% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Movies/Entertainment demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $10.96 before getting long.