Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / LLYVA / forecast

LLYVK (40) DKNG (41) MSGK (67) CHDN (55) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Liberty Live Holdings Inc. Series A Liberty Live Group (LLYVA) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$100.62 +1.55% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $100.71

Liberty Live Holdings Inc. Series A Liberty Live Group (LLYVA) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $9.12B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on LLYVA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LLYVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Liberty Live Holdings Inc. Series A Liberty Live Group (NASDAQ: LLYVA) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $100.62 (+1.55% 1D, market cap $9.12B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, LLYVA ranks #765 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LLYVA compare to LLYVK and DKNG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), LLYVA carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 19.2%, and ROIC of -5.6%. By comparison, LLYVK (Liberty Live Holdings Inc. Series C Liberty Live Group) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.4%, cap $9.51B) and DKNG (DraftKings Inc.) posts a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.1%, cap $10.29B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CHDN leads on earnings multiple (16.3x) while MSGK leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LLYVA?

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Per LLYVA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002078416), Liberty Live Holdings Inc. Series A Liberty Live Group generated $382.0M in revenue (+12.2% YoY), -$87.0M in net income, and -$46.6M in free cash flow against $1.89B in total assets and $862.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $100.71 (+0.09%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LLYVA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY LLYVA SCORES 38/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (37% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.84 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$95.50+1.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$96.69-0.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$96.61+4.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$100.62-7.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (30) → D- (38)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LLYVA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While LLYVA currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($96.45) and Max Pain ($105.65) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $111.36.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LLYVA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “LLYVA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 38%NO 62%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your LLYVA Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $100.62: 99.4 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $71.42

$7,098

$-2,902 (-29.0%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $91.56

$9,100

$-900 (-9.0%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $111.36

$11,067

+$1,067 (+10.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$95	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$105	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$81	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LLYVA)

✓Walkthrough of LLYVA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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LLYVA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +9.33%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $97.08H $100.6L $97.08C $100.6VOL 341.7K

RES: $100.5SUP: $90.97SMA50: $96.45SMA200: $94.80

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LLYVA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LLYVA Butterfly Map → + Track LLYVA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

22.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +12.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LLYVA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LLYVA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LLYVA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LLYVA)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #765 of 1011 ⚔️ LLYVK vs LLYVA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (LLYVA vs. LLYVK, DKNG, MSGK, CHDN)

Industry: Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Liberty Live Holdings Inc. Series A Liberty Live Group (LLYVA) ranks #765 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #180 by equity capitalization ($9.12B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CHDN leads on earnings valuation at 16.3x trailing P/E, while MSGK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. MSGK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with LLYVA at 38/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
LLYVA ACTIVE Liberty Live Holdings Inc. Series A Liberty Live Group	D-	38/100	—	19.2%	-5.6%	+1.55%	$9.12B	Benchmark Subject
LLYVK Liberty Live Holdings Inc. Series C Liberty Live Group	D-	40/100	—	19.2%	-5.4%	+0.94%	$9.51B	/llyvk-vs-llyva →
DKNG DraftKings Inc.	D-	41/100	—	41.3%	-1.1%	+0.92%	$10.29B	/dkng-vs-llyva →
MSGK MSG Knickerbockers Corp.	C+	67/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	+0.88%	$7.48B	/msgk-vs-llyva →
CHDN Churchill Downs Incorporated	D+	55/100	16.3x	—	9.2%	+4.03%	$6.25B	/chdn-vs-llyva →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002078416

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Liberty Live Holdings Inc. Series A Liberty Live Group (LLYVA) reported GAAP revenue of $382.0M (+12.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $340.5M ) , GAAP net income of -$87.0M, operating cash flow of -$29.5M, and free cash flow of -$46.6M (-15.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, LLYVA closed FY2025 with $1.89B in total assets against $862.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.84, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$382.0M	-$87.0M	-$29.5M	-$46.6M	$1.89B	$862.2M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$340.5M	-$112.8M	-$25.2M	-$40.6M	$1.59B	$1.56B

3. LLYVA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LLYVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does LLYVA compare to LLYVK and DKNG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LLYVA?

Where is LLYVA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LLYVA last traded at $100.62 (+1.55% on volume of 87,523 shares), positioning the stock +4.32% above its 50-day simple moving average ($96.45) and +6.14% above its 200-day simple moving average ($94.80). Across its 52-week range of $74.38 to $106.06, LLYVA sits at the 82.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($95.79 to $105.45).

LLYVA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is LLYVA's 12-month stock price target?

Liberty Live Holdings Inc. Series A Liberty Live Group (LLYVA) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $91.56 (-9% from $100.62), with a bull-case target of $111.36 and a bear-case floor of $71.42.

Is LLYVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates LLYVA D- (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 38/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: LLYVA RQD Cockpit LLYVA 12M Forecast LLYVA Earnings & Move LLYVA Dividends & DRIP LLYVA Insiders & 13F LLYVA Whale Options LLYVA Profit Sankey LLYVA News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 38/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

LLYVA — Liberty Live Holdings Inc. Series A Liberty Live Group: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:17:08Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, LLYVA scores 38 out of 100, a letter grade of D-, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 2 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of -5.6% and an FCF yield of -0.51%. This is the weakest pillar and indicates the business is not currently generating returns on invested capital or free cash flow relative to its value.
Whale 13F Flow: 14 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. This is the strongest pillar, suggesting some institutional interest in the name.
Insider Conviction: 5 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The low score indicates limited insider-driven conviction signals.
Macro Regime Fit: 7 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects a beta of 1.16 and sector sensitivity, implying above-market price sensitivity to broad moves.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 10 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects an Altman Z-Score of 1.84, a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.85. These figures point to a stretched balance sheet.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the overall picture is that the weakest pillars (cash generation and balance sheet) outweigh the institutional-flow strength. The price of 99.08 sits inside a 52-week range of $74.38 - $106.06, and the forward P/E of 29 per the market data is set against negative trailing EPS of -0.95. Upside drivers would need to come from improved cash conversion; valuation rests on expectations rather than current earnings power. This is an analytical framing, not personalized advice.

Business

Per the profile, Liberty Live Holdings Inc. Series A Liberty Live Group (LLYVA) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, within the Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation industry. The market capitalization is $9.1B per the profile. The source data does not describe specific products, customers, or revenue model beyond the sector and industry classification.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$382.0M	$-51.7M	$-87.0M	N/A	$-46.6M	$545.5M	$862.2M
FY 2024	$340.5M	$-116.3M	$-112.8M	N/A	$-40.6M	$402.6M	$1556.4M

Per the SEC financials, both reported periods show operating and net losses, with FY 2025 showing narrower losses than FY 2024. Per the market data, the gross margin is 19.2%, the operating margin is -13.5%, and the net margin is -22.8%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 1.84 and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9. Per the SEC financials, total debt declined from $1556.4M in FY 2024 to $862.2M in FY 2025 while cash rose from $402.6M to $545.5M, and per the market data ROIC is -5.6%.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the source data.

Open Questions

What specific products, services, and customers generate the reported revenue, given that the profile is limited to sector and industry classification?
What drove the reduction in total debt from $1556.4M to $862.2M, and what is the debt maturity and refinancing profile?
Why are EPS figures reported as N/A in the SEC financials while trailing EPS is -0.95 in the market data?
What is the path to positive operating income given margins of -13.5% operating and -22.8% net?
Is the trailing P/E and EV/EBITDA unavailable due to negative earnings and what would a normalized valuation look like?

LLYVA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Liberty Live Holdings Inc. Series A Liberty Live Group (LLYVA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to LLYVA Debate Forum (3) ↓

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🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 8d ago

Liberty Live Holdings (LLYV.K) Stock May Be Fully Priced For Sales Growth

Liberty Live Holdings has seen its share price move meaningfully in recent years, which naturally puts a spotlight on what investors are paying for its sales today. With that backdrop, the key issue is whether the curren

Read Full Source ↗

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LLYVA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $100.62?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LLYVA 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $87.19 (-12.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is LLYVA (D- • RQD 38/100) a Buy at $99.08?

Welcome to the LLYVA (Liberty Live Holdings Inc. Series A Liberty Live Group) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 38/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $74.31 (-25.0%)

Spot @ $99.08

Pump the brakes on LLYVA — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on LLYVA, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 19.2% gross margins. Unless Liberty Live Holdings Inc. Series A Liberty Live Group expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $121.87 (+23.0%)

Spot @ $99.08

LLYVA cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on LLYVA, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $99.08 (52-wk range $74.38 - $106.06), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.