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Why LOB Stock advanced +1.74% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$35.07 +1.74% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $35.11

Live Oak Bancshares Inc. (LOB) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 54/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.62B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LOB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Live Oak Bancshares Inc. (NYSE: LOB) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $35.07 (+1.74% 1D, market cap $1.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, LOB ranks #550 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LOB compare to CASH and CNOB in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), LOB carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.5%. By comparison, CASH (Pathward Financial Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 8.6x, ROIC 21.8%, cap $1.61B) and CNOB (ConnectOne Bancorp Inc.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 22.0x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $1.65B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CASH leads on earnings multiple (8.6x) while CASH leads on capital efficiency (21.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LOB?
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Per LOB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001462120), Live Oak Bancshares Inc. generated $6.36B in revenue (+16.9% YoY), $105.9M in net income, and $143.5M in free cash flow against $15.13B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $35.11 (+0.12%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 2.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 54/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510054
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (13)Whales (5)SEC (13)Macro (7)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.8% Base Target
$47 Bull$34 Base$27 Bear
📬 FREE LOB RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LOB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (54/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY LOB SCORES 54/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.3% FCF Margin ($143.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
46
Grade D$34.42+2.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
49
Grade D$35.35-2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
51
Grade C-$34.66+1.2% Next Q
Current
54
Grade D+$35.07-0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (46) → D+ (54)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LOB Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While LOB currently carries a cautious 54/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($36.83) and Max Pain ($36.82) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $46.76.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LOB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “LOB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 54%NO 46%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why LOB Stock advanced +1.74% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Live Oak Bancshares Inc. (LOB) advanced +1.74% to $35.07, trading at 38% of its 52-week range ($29.36 – $44.53). Stretched risk/reward at 15x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 38% of its 52-week range ($29.36 – $44.53) with RSI-14 at 45.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.7% around $35.07 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $143.5M annual free cash flow.
Live LOB Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LOB)

  • ✓Walkthrough of LOB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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LOB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -6.60%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-04O $34.47H $35.07L $34.47C $35.07VOL 395.4K
RES: $35.73SUP: $32.11SMA50: $36.83SMA200: $38.06
$45.30$42.10$38.90$35.70$32.50RES $35.73SUP $32.11$35.072026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LOB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LOB Butterfly Map → + Track LOB →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
7.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +16.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LOB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LOB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LOB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LOB)

Financials Rank #550 of 1097 ⚔️ CASH vs LOB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (LOB vs. CASH, CNOB, BFC, QCRH)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Live Oak Bancshares Inc. (LOB) ranks #550 by composite RQD confidence (54/100, grade D+) and #467 by equity capitalization ($1.62B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CASH leads on earnings valuation at 8.6x trailing P/E, while CASH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.8% ROIC and — gross margin. CNOB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with LOB at 54/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
LOB ACTIVE
Live Oak Bancshares Inc.
D+ 54/100 15.3x — 8.5% +1.74% $1.62B Benchmark Subject
CASH
Pathward Financial Inc.
D+ 54/100 8.6x — 21.8% +2.82% $1.61B /cash-vs-lob →
CNOB
ConnectOne Bancorp Inc.
C+ 66/100 22.0x — 5.1% +2.37% $1.65B /cnob-vs-lob →
BFC
Bank First Corporation
D+ 58/100 23.4x — 11.1% +1.29% $1.67B /bfc-vs-lob →
QCRH
QCR Holdings Inc.
C 64/100 13.2x — 11.4% +2.03% $1.69B /qcrh-vs-lob →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001462120 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Live Oak Bancshares Inc. (LOB) reported GAAP revenue of $6.36B (+16.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.44B , and +804.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $105.9M, operating cash flow of $158.2M, and free cash flow of $143.5M (+33.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, LOB closed FY2025 with $15.13B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $6.36B $105.9M $158.2M $143.5M $15.13B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $5.44B $77.5M $156.8M $107.5M $12.94B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $702.6M $73.9M $184.9M $184.9M — —

3. LOB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LOB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Live Oak Bancshares Inc. (NYSE: LOB) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $35.07 (+1.74% 1D, market cap $1.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, LOB ranks #550 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LOB compare to CASH and CNOB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), LOB carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.5%. By comparison, CASH (Pathward Financial Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 8.6x, ROIC 21.8%, cap $1.61B) and CNOB (ConnectOne Bancorp Inc.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 22.0x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $1.65B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CASH leads on earnings multiple (8.6x) while CASH leads on capital efficiency (21.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LOB?

Per LOB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001462120), Live Oak Bancshares Inc. generated $6.36B in revenue (+16.9% YoY), $105.9M in net income, and $143.5M in free cash flow against $15.13B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LOB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LOB last traded at $35.07 (+1.74% on volume of 395,414 shares), positioning the stock -4.78% below its 50-day simple moving average ($36.83) and -7.86% below its 200-day simple moving average ($38.06). Across its 52-week range of $29.36 to $44.53, LOB sits at the 37.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.7% ($33.07 to $37.07).

Direct Sub-Reports: LOB RQD Cockpit LOB 12M Forecast LOB Earnings & Move LOB Dividends & DRIP LOB Insiders & 13F LOB Whale Options LOB Profit Sankey LOB News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 54/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

LOB — Live Oak Bancshares Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Live Oak Bancshares Inc. (LOB) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 54/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $35.07 (+1.74% 1D, market capitalization $1.62B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 8.84%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Live Oak Bancshares Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and Major Banks industry,. The profile identifies the company as operating in Major Banks with a market capitalization of $1.6B. — for specific products, customer segments, or revenue mix. — for the company's detailed monetization model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Live Oak Bancshares Inc. (LOB) reported $6.36B in annual revenue (up from $5.44B in FY2024, +16.9% YoY) and $105.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($702.6M revenue, $73.9M net income) through FY2025, LOB scaled operating cash flow to $158.2M and free cash flow to $143.5M, backed by $15.13B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 54/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 8.84% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $29.36 – $44.53 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 15.3x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— for upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks.

  • Key Question #1: Can LOB sustain or expand its — operating margin and 8.5% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $6.36B and free cash flow of $143.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is LOB's 14.2x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

LOB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Live Oak Bancshares Inc. (LOB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to LOB Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LOB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $35.07?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LOB 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on LOB:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $43.43 (+26.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the RQD rating, the 16/20 insider-conviction pillar and 8.84% FCF yield provide the strongest support in the data set.

Long LOB at $34.47 targeting $43.43. Per the RQD rating, the 16/20 insider-conviction pillar and 8.84% FCF yield provide the strongest support in the data set.. Institutional whale score is 5/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $29.36 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@CashFlowKing Agree on the RQD 54/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $34.47 and keeping dry powder in case we test $32.06.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $28.95 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $34.47

Per the RQD rating, the 5/20 whale 13F flow pillar and 8/20 macro regime fit weigh the overall score toward a trim verdict.

I respect the product at Live Oak Bancshares Inc., but the stock at $34.47 is a different story. Per the RQD rating, the 5/20 whale 13F flow pillar and 8/20 macro regime fit weigh the overall score toward a trim verdict.. FCF yield is 8.84% and RQD sits at 54/100 (D+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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