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Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$227.56 -4.83% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $225.15

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $298.69B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on LRCX Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LRCX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $227.56 (-4.83% 1D, market cap $298.69B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, LRCX ranks #220 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LRCX compare to ASML and ETN in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), LRCX carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 43.7x, gross margin of 50.5%, and ROIC of 25.5%. By comparison, ASML (ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 21.7x, ROIC 14.9%, cap $603.53B) and ETN (Eaton Corporation PLC) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 37.4x, ROIC 14.5%, cap $143.70B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ASML leads on earnings multiple (21.7x) while LRCX leads on capital efficiency (25.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LRCX?
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Per LRCX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-06-28, CIK 0000707549), Lam Research Corporation generated $23.23B in revenue (+26.0% YoY), $7.27B in net income, and $4.81B in free cash flow against $21.39B in total assets and $5.06B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $225.15 (-1.06%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 20.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510059
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Cash (12)Whales (8)SEC (18)Macro (8)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.4% Base Target
$460 Bull$229 Base$178 Bear
📬 FREE LRCX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LRCX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY LRCX SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 21.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (36.6) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
67
Grade B-$286.92-9.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$260.81-2.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
62
Grade C+$253.82-10.3% Next Q
Current
59
Grade C-$227.56+0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (67) → C- (59)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the LRCX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, LRCX faces multiple-compression risk if 43.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 44x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($290.65) or 200D SMA ($284.67) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($228.58) toward Bear Floor ($178.29).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LRCX• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “LRCX Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your LRCX Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $227.56: 43.9 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $178.29
$7,835
$-2,165 (-21.7%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $228.58
$10,045
+$45 (+0.4%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $460.43
$20,233
+$10,233 (+102.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$23874%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$43369%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$20358%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (LRCX Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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LRCX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.99%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $254.4H $254.4L $227.6C $227.6VOL 18.73M
RES: $357.6SUP: $221.8SMA50: $290.7SMA200: $284.7
$456.9$380.5$304.1$227.7$151.3RES $357.6SUP $221.8$227.62026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LRCX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LRCX Butterfly Map → + Track LRCX →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
32.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +26.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LRCX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →
LRCX → TSM Confirmed Filing
3D chiplet stacking, through-silicon vias (TSVs) in HBM, and Gate-All-Around selective atomic-layer etching sharply increase Lam Research etch and deposition intensity per wafer start.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LRCX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LRCX)

Technology Rank #220 of 715 ⚔️ ASML vs LRCX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (LRCX vs. ASML, ETN, VRT, CW)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) ranks #220 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #18 by equity capitalization ($298.69B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ASML leads on earnings valuation at 21.7x trailing P/E, while LRCX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 25.5% ROIC and 50.5% gross margin. VRT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with LRCX at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
LRCX ACTIVE
Lam Research Corporation
C- 59/100 43.7x 50.5% 25.5% -4.83% $298.69B Benchmark Subject
ASML
ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares
C- 61/100 21.7x — 14.9% -2.54% $603.53B /asml-vs-lrcx →
ETN
Eaton Corporation PLC
C- 61/100 37.4x 37.6% 14.5% -1.05% $143.70B /etn-vs-lrcx →
VRT
Vertiv Holdings LLC
C 62/100 71.0x 36.3% 19.1% -3.55% $89.53B /vrt-vs-lrcx →
CW
Curtiss-Wright Corporation
C- 60/100 37.9x 37.2% 17.1% +1.70% $17.58B /cw-vs-lrcx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-06-28 • CIK 0000707549 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-06-28), Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) reported GAAP revenue of $23.23B (+26.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $18.44B ) , GAAP net income of $7.27B, operating cash flow of $5.86B, and free cash flow of $4.81B (-9.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, LRCX closed FY2025 with $21.39B in total assets against $5.06B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 21.80, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-06-28 $23.23B $7.27B $5.86B $4.81B $21.39B $5.06B
FY2024 (FY) 2025-06-29 $18.44B $5.36B $6.17B $5.34B $19.84B $4.96B

3. LRCX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LRCX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $227.56 (-4.83% 1D, market cap $298.69B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, LRCX ranks #220 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LRCX compare to ASML and ETN in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), LRCX carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 43.7x, gross margin of 50.5%, and ROIC of 25.5%. By comparison, ASML (ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 21.7x, ROIC 14.9%, cap $603.53B) and ETN (Eaton Corporation PLC) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 37.4x, ROIC 14.5%, cap $143.70B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ASML leads on earnings multiple (21.7x) while LRCX leads on capital efficiency (25.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LRCX?

Per LRCX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-06-28, CIK 0000707549), Lam Research Corporation generated $23.23B in revenue (+26.0% YoY), $7.27B in net income, and $4.81B in free cash flow against $21.39B in total assets and $5.06B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LRCX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LRCX last traded at $227.56 (-4.83% on volume of 11,387,137 shares), positioning the stock -21.71% below its 50-day simple moving average ($290.65) and -20.06% below its 200-day simple moving average ($284.67). Across its 52-week range of $135.50 to $438.50, LRCX sits at the 30.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.5% ($208.22 to $246.90).

Direct Sub-Reports: LRCX RQD Cockpit LRCX 12M Forecast LRCX Earnings & Move LRCX Dividends & DRIP LRCX Insiders & 13F LRCX Whale Options LRCX Profit Sankey LRCX News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 59/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

LRCX — Lam Research Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-06-28

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 59/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $227.56 (-4.83% 1D, market capitalization $298.69B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 25.5%, gross margin of 50.5%, operating margin of 35.3%, and free cash flow yield of 1.51%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.29x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 21.80, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.47x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Lam Research Corporation is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Technology sector and Industrial Machinery/Components industry. Its disclosed top foundry and memory customer tier is cited at 10%+ per its FY2024 Form 10-K, and its etch and deposition tools are linked to 3D chiplet stacking, through-silicon vias in HBM, and Gate-All-Around selective atomic-layer etching.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-06-28), Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) reported $23.23B in annual revenue (up from $18.44B in FY2024, +26.0% YoY) and $7.27B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2024 ($18.44B revenue, $5.36B net income) through FY2025, LRCX scaled operating cash flow to $5.86B and free cash flow to $4.81B, backed by $21.39B in total assets against $5.06B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 59/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 1.51% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $135.50 – $438.50 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 43.7x trailing P/E and 34.8x EV/EBITDA against 35.3% operating margins and a 1.29x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The primary upstream-to-downstream link is LRCX supplying equipment that enables TSM's advanced foundry output.

Investors should watch the second-order bottleneck the graph identifies: memory (NAND) fab utilization recovery is uneven, so LRCX's operating leverage depends on the pace of advanced-packaging and HBM cleanroom additions. A slower memory recovery could offset foundry-driven demand.

  • Key Question #1: Can LRCX sustain or expand its 35.3% operating margin and 25.5% ROIC against Industrial Machinery/Components peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $23.23B and free cash flow of $4.81B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $5.06B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is LRCX's 36.7x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.29x)?

LRCX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to LRCX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LRCX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $227.56?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LRCX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on LRCX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $306.06 (+28.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet strength (Altman Z 21.8, Piotroski F 8/9) and ROIC of 25.5% support the quality of the franchise.

Picked up a starter position in LRCX in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $239.11. Forensic balance sheet strength (Altman Z 21.8, Piotroski F 8/9) and ROIC of 25.5% support the quality of the franchise.. Trading inside a $135.50–$438.50 52-week range with 1.51% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Industrial Machinery/Components multiples expand this quarter.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@CashFlowKing Agree on the RQD 59/100 quality, though with 1.29 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $239.11 and keeping dry powder in case we test $222.37.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $181.72 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $239.11

A forward P/E of 36.7 and FCF yield of 1.51% leave little margin for error on a stock with beta 1.29.

Fading this rally in LRCX at $239.11. A forward P/E of 36.7 and FCF yield of 1.51% leave little margin for error on a stock with beta 1.29.. With a beta of 1.29 and the stock sitting at $239.11 (52-wk range $135.50–$438.50), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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