Why LSF Stock dropped -4.87% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$2.54 -4.87% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.51

Laird Superfood Inc. (LSF) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 19/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $28.4M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LSF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Laird Superfood Inc. (NYSE: LSF) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 19/100 at a spot price of $2.54 (-4.87% 1D, market cap $28.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, LSF ranks #143 in composite RQD confidence.

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🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LSF compare to JVA and BRLS in the Consumer Staples sector?
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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), LSF carries a Roarable E (19/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 37.9%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, JVA (Coffee Holding Co. Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 20.8x, ROIC 6.5%, cap $28.7M) and BRLS (Borealis Foods Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $24.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JVA leads on earnings multiple (20.8x) while JVA leads on capital efficiency (6.5% ROIC).

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🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LSF?
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Per LSF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001650696), Laird Superfood Inc. generated $49.9M in revenue (+15.2% YoY), -$3.3M in net income, and -$2.9M in free cash flow against $19.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.51 (-1.07%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
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📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (19/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-12.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510019
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (5)Whales (3)SEC (5)Macro (3)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-17.7% Base Target
$5 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE LSF RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LSF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (19/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY LSF SCORES 19/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+5/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 37.9% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+5/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
27
Grade E$2.78+13.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
24
Grade E$3.15-17.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
22
Grade E$2.59-1.9% Next Q
Current
19
Grade E$2.54-12% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (27) → E (19)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LSF Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While LSF currently carries a cautious 19/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.35) and Max Pain ($2.67) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $5.37.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LSF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “LSF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
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Why LSF Stock dropped -4.87% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Laird Superfood Inc. (LSF) dropped -4.87% to $2.54, trading at 18% of its 52-week range ($1.96 – $5.11). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 18% of its 52-week range ($1.96 – $5.11) with RSI-14 at 36.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $2.54 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 37.9% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live LSF Headlines & Catalysts
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  • ✓Walkthrough of LSF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
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LSF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.06%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $2.67H $2.67L $2.54C $2.54VOL 33.7K
RES: $5.08SUP: $2.30SMA50: $3.35SMA200: $3.38
$5.30$4.52$3.75$2.97$2.20RES $5.08SUP $2.30$2.542026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LSF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +15.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LSF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LSF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LSF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LSF)

Consumer Staples Rank #143 of 146 ⚔️ JVA vs LSF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (LSF vs. JVA, BRLS, BOF, COOT)

Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Laird Superfood Inc. (LSF) ranks #143 by composite RQD confidence (19/100, grade E) and #115 by equity capitalization ($28.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JVA leads on earnings valuation at 20.8x trailing P/E, while JVA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 6.5% ROIC and 16.0% gross margin. COOT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 53/100 (D+) compared with LSF at 19/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
LSF ACTIVE
Laird Superfood Inc.
E 19/100 — 37.9% -35.0% -4.87% $28.4M Benchmark Subject
JVA
Coffee Holding Co. Inc.
D 49/100 20.8x 16.0% 6.5% -1.57% $28.7M /jva-vs-lsf →
BRLS
Borealis Foods Inc. (Class A)
E 26/100 — 11.2% -35.0% +4.59% $24.5M /brls-vs-lsf →
BOF
BranchOut Food Inc.
E 18/100 — 14.8% -35.0% -1.15% $33.8M /bof-vs-lsf →
COOT
Australian Oilseeds Holdings Limited
D+ 53/100 — — — +8.16% $22.1M /coot-vs-lsf →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001650696

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Laird Superfood Inc. (LSF) reported GAAP revenue of $49.9M (+15.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $43.3M , and +45.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$3.3M, operating cash flow of -$2.8M, and free cash flow of -$2.9M (-440.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, LSF closed FY2025 with $19.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $49.9M -$3.3M -$2.8M -$2.9M $19.2M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $43.3M -$1.8M $865.5K $840.7K $19.3M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $34.2M -$10.2M -$10.8M -$10.8M — —

3. LSF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LSF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Laird Superfood Inc. (NYSE: LSF) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 19/100 at a spot price of $2.54 (-4.87% 1D, market cap $28.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, LSF ranks #143 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LSF compare to JVA and BRLS in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), LSF carries a Roarable E (19/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 37.9%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, JVA (Coffee Holding Co. Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 20.8x, ROIC 6.5%, cap $28.7M) and BRLS (Borealis Foods Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $24.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JVA leads on earnings multiple (20.8x) while JVA leads on capital efficiency (6.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LSF?

Per LSF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001650696), Laird Superfood Inc. generated $49.9M in revenue (+15.2% YoY), -$3.3M in net income, and -$2.9M in free cash flow against $19.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LSF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LSF last traded at $2.54 (-4.87% on volume of 33,704 shares), positioning the stock -24.18% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.35) and -24.85% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.38). Across its 52-week range of $1.96 to $5.11, LSF sits at the 18.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.22 to $2.86).

LSF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is LSF stock moving today?

Why LSF Stock dropped -4.87% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 19/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

LSF — Laird Superfood Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:48:49Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, LSF scores 19 out of 100 and receives a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." Each of the five pillars is scored out of 20:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 5 / 20. Per the RQD rating, return on invested capital is -35% and FCF yield is -9.58%. For an investor, this indicates the business is currently consuming capital rather than generating surplus cash for shareholders.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 3 / 20. The RQD rating's pillar label references institutional accumulation and options positioning, and the score is weak. The source does not provide the underlying 13F holdings, so the specific direction of institutional flow cannot be confirmed here.
  • Insider Conviction: 3 / 20. The pillar label references SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The score is weak, but the underlying trade records are not provided in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 3 / 20. Per the RQD rating, beta is 1.0 and the pillar reflects sector sensitivity. A beta of 1.0 means the stock is in line with the broader market on a historical basis, so the low score reflects the rating model's assessment of fit rather than volatility alone.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 5 / 20. Per the RQD rating, Altman Z is 0.2, Piotroski F is 4/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. The Altman Z reading is in the distress range of the source's framework, and the Piotroski score is below midpoint.

Taken together, the ratings indicate that the investment case rests on a business that is currently unprofitable on a return basis, with weak forensic health signals. For a prospective investor, the main upside would have to come from a turnaround in cash generation, which the source data does not demonstrate. Valuation tradeoffs are difficult to assess because forward earnings and EV/EBITDA are not available in source data, so the stock cannot be framed against earnings-based peers from this dataset alone.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$49.9M$-3.4M$-3.3MN/A$-2.9M$5.1MN/A
FY 2024$43.3M$-2.2M$-1.8MN/A$0.8M$8.3MN/A
FY 2023$34.2M$-10.7M$-10.2MN/A$-10.8MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $34.2M in FY 2023 to $49.9M in FY 2025, but operating income remained negative in every reported period. Per the market data, gross margin is 37.9%, operating margin is -6.8%, and net margin is -6.5%. ROIC is -35% per the market data and RQD rating. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 0.2 and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, both indicating financial stress, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Cash declined from $8.3M in FY 2024 to $5.1M in FY 2025 per the SEC financials.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Earnings date (GREEN catalyst flag): Per the news wire, Laird Superfood is scheduled to report third quarter 2026 financial results on November 12, 2026. This is the most time-sensitive scheduled item in the source data.
  • Sector commentary: Per the news wire, several items compare Consumer Staples stocks against peers and discuss gross margin pressure at a peer named FLO, which may be read as sector-level context rather than company-specific news.
  • Volume signal: A headline references unusual volume stocks, and per the market data, volume is 14,326. The source does not provide a baseline to determine whether this volume is unusual for LSF.
  • Proprietary signals: Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals are listed.

Risk watch: the RQD rating's forensic metrics and negative returns are the primary risk items. Per the news wire, the flagged items are largely YELLOW and do not contain company-specific fundamental disclosures beyond the earnings date.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies cannot be mapped from the source data. Sector context is limited to Consumer Staples and Packaged Foods. The news wire references peer activity, including a gross margin pressure item at FLO and a headline about Mondelez and Biscoff, but the source does not connect these to LSF's supply chain. Investors should treat sector correlation as unresolved here.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's specific products, customer segments, and revenue mix, given that the business description in the source data is limited to sector and industry labels?
  • What is the company's debt position in dollar terms, since the financials list debt as N/A for all periods?
  • What drove the increase in revenue from FY 2024 to FY 2025 and the swing in FCF from positive to negative?
  • What are forward earnings and EV/EBITDA, which would allow valuation to be compared against peers?
  • What institutional and insider ownership exists, and in what direction has it moved?

LSF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Laird Superfood Inc. (LSF) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to LSF Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LSF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.54?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LSF 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on LSF:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.35 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is LSF (E • RQD 19/100) a Buy at $2.67?

Welcome to the LSF (Laird Superfood Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 19/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Packaged Foods. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.22 (-16.9%)
Spot @ $2.67

Pump the brakes on LSF — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on LSF, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 37.9% gross margins. Unless Laird Superfood Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.07 (+15.0%)
Spot @ $2.67

LSF cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on LSF, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Packaged Foods and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $2.67 (52-wk range $1.96 - $5.11), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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