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Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / LWAY / earnings
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Lifeway Foods Inc. (LWAY) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.3% Move

$22.28 -2.86% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.12

Lifeway Foods Inc. (LWAY) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $346.4M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LWAY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Lifeway Foods Inc. (NASDAQ: LWAY) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $22.28 (-2.86% 1D, market cap $346.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, LWAY ranks #85 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LWAY compare to AFRI and VITL in the Consumer Staples sector?
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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), LWAY carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 25.3x, gross margin of 27.4%, and ROIC of 15.9%. By comparison, AFRI (Forafric Global PLC) holds a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -16.5%, cap $337.3M) and VITL (Vital Farms Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E 6.0x, ROIC 23.1%, cap $372.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VITL leads on earnings multiple (6.0x) while VITL leads on capital efficiency (23.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LWAY?
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Per LWAY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000814586), Lifeway Foods Inc. generated $212.5M in revenue (+13.7% YoY), $13.9M in net income, and -$16.4M in free cash flow against $105.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.12 (-0.70%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510048
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Cash (10)Whales (7)SEC (16)Macro (6)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
$34 Bull$21 Base$17 Bear
📬 FREE LWAY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LWAY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY LWAY SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (33% of score)

Altman Z-Score 14.56 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 27.4% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (51.4) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$22.60-0.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
53
Grade C-$22.42+3.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
51
Grade C-$23.22-4% Next Q
Current
48
Grade D$22.28-5.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LWAY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While LWAY currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($23.29) and Max Pain ($23.39) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $34.35.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LWAY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “LWAY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.3% Swing Band

±$1.40 Expected Swing
$20.88 (-6.3%)Spot $22.28$23.68 (+6.3%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

LWAY Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 48/100

Trailing EPS: $0.92 • YoY Revenue Growth: 13.7%

Model Bullish Setup (48/100)Model Risk Weight (52/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$212.5M$13.9M-$16.4M27.4%
FY 20242024-12-31$186.8M$9.0M$6.3M26%
FY 20232023-12-31$160.1M$11.4M$16.9M27.4%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LWAY)

  • ✓Walkthrough of LWAY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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LWAY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -17.11%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $23.22H $23.22L $22.28C $22.28VOL 80.2K
RES: $36.49SUP: $18.52SMA50: $23.29SMA200: $24.58
$33.58$29.97$26.37$22.76$19.15RES $36.49SUP $18.52$22.282026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LWAY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LWAY Butterfly Map → + Track LWAY →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
19.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +13.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LWAY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LWAY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LWAY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LWAY)

Consumer Staples Rank #85 of 147 ⚔️ AFRI vs LWAY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (LWAY vs. AFRI, VITL, OTLY, OFRM)

Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Lifeway Foods Inc. (LWAY) ranks #85 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #90 by equity capitalization ($346.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VITL leads on earnings valuation at 6.0x trailing P/E, while VITL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 23.1% ROIC and 37.6% gross margin. LWAY currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
LWAY ACTIVE
Lifeway Foods Inc.
D 48/100 25.3x 27.4% 15.9% -2.86% $346.4M Benchmark Subject
AFRI
Forafric Global PLC
E 24/100 — 10.4% -16.5% -1.04% $337.3M /afri-vs-lway →
VITL
Vital Farms Inc.
D- 43/100 6.0x 37.6% 23.1% +5.88% $372.2M /vitl-vs-lway →
OTLY
Oatly Group AB
D 45/100 — — — -0.52% $247.3M /otly-vs-lway →
OFRM
Once Upon a Farm PBC
D- 42/100 — — — -37.15% $630.7M /ofrm-vs-lway →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000814586 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Lifeway Foods Inc. (LWAY) reported GAAP revenue of $212.5M (+13.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $186.8M , and +32.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $13.9M, operating cash flow of $10.9M, and free cash flow of -$16.4M (-362.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, LWAY closed FY2025 with $105.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 14.56, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $212.5M $13.9M $10.9M -$16.4M $105.6M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $186.8M $9.0M $13.0M $6.3M $90.5M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $160.1M $11.4M $16.9M $16.9M — —

3. LWAY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LWAY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Lifeway Foods Inc. (NASDAQ: LWAY) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $22.28 (-2.86% 1D, market cap $346.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, LWAY ranks #85 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LWAY compare to AFRI and VITL in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), LWAY carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 25.3x, gross margin of 27.4%, and ROIC of 15.9%. By comparison, AFRI (Forafric Global PLC) holds a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -16.5%, cap $337.3M) and VITL (Vital Farms Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E 6.0x, ROIC 23.1%, cap $372.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VITL leads on earnings multiple (6.0x) while VITL leads on capital efficiency (23.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LWAY?

Per LWAY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000814586), Lifeway Foods Inc. generated $212.5M in revenue (+13.7% YoY), $13.9M in net income, and -$16.4M in free cash flow against $105.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LWAY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LWAY last traded at $22.28 (-2.86% on volume of 71,430 shares), positioning the stock -4.34% below its 50-day simple moving average ($23.29) and -9.36% below its 200-day simple moving average ($24.58). Across its 52-week range of $17.31 to $32.71, LWAY sits at the 32.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.3% ($20.88 to $23.68).

Direct Sub-Reports: LWAY RQD Cockpit LWAY 12M Forecast LWAY Earnings & Move LWAY Dividends & DRIP LWAY Insiders & 13F LWAY Whale Options LWAY Profit Sankey LWAY News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

LWAY — Lifeway Foods Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Lifeway Foods Inc. (LWAY) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 48/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $22.28 (-2.86% 1D, market capitalization $346.4M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 15.9%, gross margin of 27.4%, operating margin of 7.6%, and free cash flow yield of -4.68%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 14.56, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Lifeway Foods Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Staples sector and Packaged Foods industry. Per the financials, it reports revenue of $212.5M for FY 2025. — for detailed product lines, customer base, or revenue-generation mechanics beyond the sector and industry classification.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Lifeway Foods Inc. (LWAY) reported $212.5M in annual revenue (up from $186.8M in FY2024, +13.7% YoY) and $13.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($160.1M revenue, $11.4M net income) through FY2025, LWAY scaled operating cash flow to $10.9M and free cash flow to -$16.4M, backed by $105.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 48/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of -4.68% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $17.31 – $32.71 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 25.3x trailing P/E and 8.8x EV/EBITDA against 7.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph records no upstream or downstream links, no sector correlations, and no proprietary signals. The Seeking Alpha headline's reference to input costs suggests input-cost exposure as a second-order consideration, but no supply-chain dependency data is provided to quantify it.

  • Key Question #1: Can LWAY sustain or expand its 7.6% operating margin and 15.9% ROIC against Packaged Foods peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $212.5M and free cash flow of -$16.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is LWAY's 21.3x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Staples capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

LWAY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Lifeway Foods Inc. (LWAY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to LWAY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LWAY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $22.28?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LWAY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on LWAY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $28.89 (+26.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $160.1M to $212.5M across the reported periods while the forensic balance sheet scored 16/20, with Altman Z at 14.56

Long LWAY at $22.93 targeting $28.89. Revenue grew from $160.1M to $212.5M across the reported periods while the forensic balance sheet scored 16/20, with Altman Z at 14.56 and Debt/Equity at 0.5.. Institutional whale score is 7/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $17.31 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@QuantViper Agree on the RQD 48/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $22.93 and keeping dry powder in case we test $21.32.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $19.03 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $22.93

FCF yield is -4.68% and FY 2025 free cash flow turned negative at -$16.4M, with the Macro Regime Fit pillar scoring only 6/20.

Fading this rally in LWAY at $22.93. FCF yield is -4.68% and FY 2025 free cash flow turned negative at -$16.4M, with the Macro Regime Fit pillar scoring only 6/20.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $22.93 (52-wk range $17.31–$32.71), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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