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Lyell Immunopharma Inc. (LYEL) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$10.88 -1.45% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.83

Lyell Immunopharma Inc. (LYEL) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 30/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E β€’ RED ALERT Cap $270.5M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on LYEL Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LYEL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Lyell Immunopharma Inc. (NASDAQ: LYEL) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 30/100 at a spot price of $10.88 (-1.45% 1D, market cap $270.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, LYEL ranks #796 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LYEL compare to BIOA and RCKT in the Health Care sector?
β–Ό

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), LYEL carries a Roarable E (30/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, BIOA (BioAge Labs Inc.) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $269.4M) and RCKT (Rocket Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $267.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, QTTB leads on earnings multiple (8.9x) while QTTB leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LYEL?
β–Ό

Per LYEL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001806952), Lyell Immunopharma Inc. generated $36.0K in revenue (-41.0% YoY), -$274.4M in net income, and -$150.8M in free cash flow against $340.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.83 (-0.45%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (30/100 Β· E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ E
025507510030
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E Β· Rk E
Cash (6)Whales (8)SEC (7)Macro (6)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.6% Base Target
$47 Bull$10 Base$7 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE LYEL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LYEL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (30/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY LYEL SCORES 30/100 (E) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+8/20 pts (27% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±12.5% realized swing band)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+7/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 3/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
22
Grade E$7.51+29.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
25
Grade E$9.70+4.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
27
Grade E$10.12+7.5% Next Q
Current
30
Grade E$10.88-9.6% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (22) β†’ E (30)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LYEL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While LYEL currently carries a cautious 30/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.87) and Max Pain ($11.42) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $47.25.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LYELβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œLYEL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 30%NO 70%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±12.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (LYEL)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for LYEL.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LYEL)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of LYEL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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LYEL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -47.49%⚑ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $11.30H $11.30L $10.88C $10.88VOL 113.3K
RES: $11.29SUP: $5.93SMA50: $10.87SMA200: $16.75
$23.34$18.96$14.59$10.22$5.84RES $11.29SUP $5.93$10.882026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LYEL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ LYEL Butterfly Map β†’ + Track LYEL β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -41.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LYEL today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LYEL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LYEL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LYEL)

Health Care Rank #796 of 1015 βš”οΈ BIOA vs LYEL Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (LYEL vs. BIOA, RCKT, QTTB, FULC)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Lyell Immunopharma Inc. (LYEL) ranks #796 by composite RQD confidence (30/100, grade E) and #527 by equity capitalization ($270.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, QTTB leads on earnings valuation at 8.9x trailing P/E, while QTTB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and β€” gross margin. QTTB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 53/100 (D+) compared with LYEL at 30/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
LYEL ACTIVE
Lyell Immunopharma Inc.
E 30/100 β€” β€” -35.0% -1.45% $270.5M Benchmark Subject
BIOA
BioAge Labs Inc.
E 31/100 β€” β€” -35.0% -1.19% $269.4M /bioa-vs-lyel β†’
RCKT
Rocket Pharmaceuticals Inc.
E 28/100 β€” β€” -35.0% +1.23% $267.9M /rckt-vs-lyel β†’
QTTB
Q32 Bio Inc.
D+ 53/100 8.9x β€” 85.0% -2.24% $265.2M /qttb-vs-lyel β†’
FULC
Fulcrum Therapeutics Inc.
E 32/100 β€” β€” -35.0% -1.62% $283.4M /fulc-vs-lyel β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001806952 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Lyell Immunopharma Inc. (LYEL) reported GAAP revenue of $36.0K (-41.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $61.0K , and -72.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$274.4M, operating cash flow of -$150.0M, and free cash flow of -$150.8M (+7.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, LYEL closed FY2025 with $340.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $36.0K -$274.4M -$150.0M -$150.8M $340.1M β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $61.0K -$343.0M -$162.4M -$162.9M $490.9M β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $130.0K -$234.6M -$163.7M -$163.7M β€” β€”

3. LYEL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LYEL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Lyell Immunopharma Inc. (NASDAQ: LYEL) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 30/100 at a spot price of $10.88 (-1.45% 1D, market cap $270.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, LYEL ranks #796 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LYEL compare to BIOA and RCKT in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), LYEL carries a Roarable E (30/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, BIOA (BioAge Labs Inc.) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $269.4M) and RCKT (Rocket Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $267.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, QTTB leads on earnings multiple (8.9x) while QTTB leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LYEL?

Per LYEL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001806952), Lyell Immunopharma Inc. generated $36.0K in revenue (-41.0% YoY), -$274.4M in net income, and -$150.8M in free cash flow against $340.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LYEL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LYEL last traded at $10.88 (-1.45% on volume of 104,066 shares), positioning the stock +0.09% above its 50-day simple moving average ($10.87) and -35.04% below its 200-day simple moving average ($16.75). Across its 52-week range of $7.20 to $45.00, LYEL sits at the 9.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±12.5% ($9.52 to $12.24).

Direct Sub-Reports: LYEL RQD Cockpit LYEL 12M Forecast LYEL Earnings & Move LYEL Dividends & DRIP LYEL Insiders & 13F LYEL Whale Options LYEL Profit Sankey LYEL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 30/100 (E) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

LYEL β€” Lyell Immunopharma Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Lyell Immunopharma Inc. (LYEL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 30/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $10.88 (-1.45% 1D, market capitalization $270.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of β€”.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (7/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Lyell Immunopharma Inc. (LYEL) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry,. Reported revenue is near zero in each period shown in the SEC financials, so the source does not support a conclusion about how the company monetizes its activities. β€” for further detail on products or customers.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Lyell Immunopharma Inc. (LYEL) reported $36.0K in annual revenue (up from $61.0K in FY2024, -41.0% YoY) and -$274.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($130.0K revenue, -$234.6M net income) through FY2025, LYEL scaled operating cash flow to -$150.0M and free cash flow to -$150.8M, backed by $340.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (E β€’ RQD 30/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of β€” and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $7.20 – $45.00 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore β€” The only sector context provided is the Health Care sector and the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry classification.

  • Key Question #1: Can LYEL sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $36.0K and free cash flow of -$150.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is LYEL's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

LYEL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Lyell Immunopharma Inc. (LYEL) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to LYEL Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LYEL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $10.88?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LYEL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on LYEL:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Institutional Buy-Side πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.36 (+21.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

The stock is down 27% in four weeks and trades near its 52-week low of $7.2, which the news feed frames as a possible turnaround setup.

The stock is down 27% in four weeks and trades near its 52-week low of $7.2, which the news feed frames as a possible turnaround setup.. When you look under the hood at LYEL, Fundamental Cash Engine is 6/20 with 0.0% gross margins and -35.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (8/20) has been quietly accumulating below $45.00. My 12M target is $13.36.

RetailWhale_TX πŸ‚ BULL

@BearTrap_Alert Shorting a 8/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $11.04 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.16 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $11.04

ROIC is -35%, FCF yield is 0%, and the Piotroski F-Score is 3 of 9, with the insider conviction pillar scoring just 3 of 20.

ROIC is -35%, FCF yield is 0%, and the Piotroski F-Score is 3 of 9, with the insider conviction pillar scoring just 3 of 20.. Look at the math on LYEL: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -35.0% ROIC and -60.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $9.72 before getting long.

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