Mastercard Incorporated (MA) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$638.01 +0.36% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $639.95

Mastercard Incorporated (MA) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 79/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 34% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $556.88B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 79/100 at a spot price of $638.01 (+0.36% 1D, market cap $556.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 20/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MA ranks #22 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MA compare to V and BABA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), MA carries a Roarable B+ (79/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 37.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 33.5%. By comparison, V (Visa Inc.) holds a A grade (86/100 RQD, P/E 36.6x, ROIC 32.3%, cap $733.53B) and BABA (Alibaba Group Holding Limited American) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 7.6%, cap $241.13B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UBER leads on earnings multiple (13.4x) while MA leads on capital efficiency (33.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MA?
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Per MA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001141391), Mastercard Incorporated generated $32.79B in revenue (+16.4% YoY), $14.97B in net income, and $17.16B in free cash flow against $54.16B in total assets and $18.25B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $639.92 (+0.30%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 52.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 79/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
025507510079
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A · Rk C
Cash (19)Whales (20)SEC (15)Macro (10)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9.4% Base Target
$824 Bull$698 Base$523 Bear
📬 FREE MA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (79/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MA SCORES 79/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+20/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.4% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 52.3% FCF Margin ($17.16B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (68.8) create a -10 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
71
Grade B$604.80+2.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
74
Grade B+$620.42-1.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
76
Grade B+$609.85+4.6% Next Q
Current
79
Grade B+$638.01+8.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (71) → B+ (79)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 79/100 (B+) score, MA faces multiple-compression risk if 37.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($588.55) or 200D SMA ($536.68) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($698.30) toward Bear Floor ($523.17).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±4.4%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (MA)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for MA.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MA & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MA
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  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +26.40%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $610.3H $638.0L $610.3C $638.0VOL 4.44M
RES: $646.2SUP: $538.9SMA50: $588.6SMA200: $536.7
$656.8$604.7$552.6$500.5$448.3RES $646.2SUP $538.9$638.02026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
28.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +16.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MA)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #22 of 1011 ⚔️ V vs MA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MA vs. V, BABA, ACN, UBER)

Industry: Business Services (90 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mastercard Incorporated (MA) ranks #22 by composite RQD confidence (79/100, grade B+) and #4 by equity capitalization ($556.88B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UBER leads on earnings valuation at 13.4x trailing P/E, while MA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.5% ROIC and — gross margin. ACN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 88/100 (A) compared with MA at 79/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MA ACTIVE
Mastercard Incorporated
B+ 79/100 37.2x — 33.5% +0.36% $556.88B Benchmark Subject
V
Visa Inc.
A 86/100 36.6x — 32.3% +0.74% $733.53B /v-vs-ma →
BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited American
D 50/100 16.1x 39.8% 7.6% -1.51% $241.13B /baba-vs-ma →
ACN
Accenture plc (Ireland) (Class A)
A 88/100 21.5x 31.9% 23.6% +4.46% $165.32B /acn-vs-ma →
UBER
Uber Technologies Inc.
C+ 67/100 13.4x — 14.4% -0.74% $134.28B /uber-vs-ma →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001141391

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mastercard Incorporated (MA) reported GAAP revenue of $32.79B (+16.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $28.17B , and +30.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $14.97B, operating cash flow of $17.65B, and free cash flow of $17.16B (+19.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, MA closed FY2025 with $54.16B in total assets against $18.25B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 11.17, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $32.79B $14.97B $17.65B $17.16B $54.16B $18.25B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $28.17B $12.87B $14.78B $14.31B $48.08B $17.48B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $25.10B $11.20B $11.98B $10.85B $306.28B $71.67B

3. MA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 79/100 at a spot price of $638.01 (+0.36% 1D, market cap $556.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 20/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MA ranks #22 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MA compare to V and BABA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), MA carries a Roarable B+ (79/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 37.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 33.5%. By comparison, V (Visa Inc.) holds a A grade (86/100 RQD, P/E 36.6x, ROIC 32.3%, cap $733.53B) and BABA (Alibaba Group Holding Limited American) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 7.6%, cap $241.13B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UBER leads on earnings multiple (13.4x) while MA leads on capital efficiency (33.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MA?

Per MA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001141391), Mastercard Incorporated generated $32.79B in revenue (+16.4% YoY), $14.97B in net income, and $17.16B in free cash flow against $54.16B in total assets and $18.25B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MA last traded at $638.01 (+0.36% on volume of 4,518,231 shares), positioning the stock +8.40% above its 50-day simple moving average ($588.55) and +18.88% above its 200-day simple moving average ($536.68). Across its 52-week range of $464.52 to $644.24, MA sits at the 96.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 68.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.4% ($609.94 to $666.08).

MA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MA's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for MA.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 79/100 (B+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MA — Mastercard Incorporated: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:08:46Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MA scores 79 out of 100, grade B+, labeled "Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20 (ROIC 33.5%; FCF yield 3.08%), Whale 13F Flow 20/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction 15/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit 10/20 (Beta 0.9; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet 15/20 (Altman Z 11.17; Piotroski F 8/9; Debt/Equity 2.36).

For a prospective investor, the strongest contributors are the cash engine and institutional flow, which together account for most of the score. The 33.5% ROIC and 3.08% FCF yield describe a business that converts capital into cash at a high rate, but the FCF yield is modest in absolute terms, so the stock's valuation already reflects much of that strength. The Macro Regime Fit pillar, at 10/20, is the weakest contributor and reflects sector sensitivity rather than a specific fundamental defect. The forensic balance sheet score is solid but not top-tier; the 2.36 Debt/Equity figure is the item a careful reader would weigh against the high Altman Z-Score. Valuation is the principal tradeoff: the trailing P/E of 37.2 and EV/EBITDA of 29.2 imply that upside depends on sustained earnings growth rather than multiple expansion.

Snapshot

MetricValue
Price$635.7
Market Cap$556.88B
P/E (TTM)37.2
Forward P/E31.2
EV/EBITDA29.2
EPS (TTM)17.09
Dividend Yield0.49%
Beta0.9
52-Wk Range$464.52 - $644.24
ROIC %33.5%

Business

Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Business Services industry, per the profile section. Market capitalization is $556.9B. The source data does not describe the company's products, customer base, or revenue model beyond these classifications; the figures in the financials section are the only operating description available. Not available in source data for further business description.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$32791.0M$18897.0M$14968.0MN/A$17159.0M$10566.0M$18251.0M
FY 2024$28167.0M$15582.0M$12874.0MN/A$14306.0M$8442.0M$17476.0M
FY 2023$25098.0M$14008.0M$11195.0MN/A$10850.6MN/A$71670.4M

Per the SEC financials, revenue grew from $25098.0M (FY 2023) to $32791.0M (FY 2025), and net income rose from $11195.0M to $14968.0M over the same span. Per the market data, operating margin is 57.6%, net margin is 45.6%, and gross margin is reported as 0%. ROIC is 33.5%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 11.17 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, while the Debt/Equity ratio is 2.36. The FY 2023 debt figure of $71670.4M is substantially higher than the FY 2024 and FY 2025 figures and is presented as reported; the source data does not explain the change.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The news wire contains six Yahoo Finance items, all related to MA and all flagged YELLOW under the "MARKET WIRE" impact label. Headlines cover the stock outpacing the market, a "trading up today" item, a $1,000 ten-year return comparison, a report describing the stock at new all-time highs, and an article asking whether the market is underpricing the stock. The summaries are generic and do not contain specific figures, so the catalysts are limited to market-action and positioning coverage. Risk watch items are not specified in the source data. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no proprietary signals and no links.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain status is NONE, butterfly links are empty, and proprietary signals are empty. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore not available in source data. The sector classification (Consumer Discretionary / Business Services) is the only structural context provided.

Open Questions

  • What is the company's revenue mix and primary customer base, given that the source data provides no business description beyond sector classification?
  • Why is gross margin reported as 0%, and how should that figure be interpreted alongside the reported operating and net margins?
  • What drove the change in reported debt from $71670.4M in FY 2023 to $17476.0M in FY 2024?
  • Which specific insider, 13F, and Congressional transactions underlie the Insider Conviction and Whale Flow pillar scores?
  • Why is EPS reported as N/A for each fiscal period despite a trailing EPS figure of 17.09 in the market data?

MA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Mastercard Incorporated (MA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $638.01?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $750.13 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MA (B+ • RQD 79/100) a Buy at $635.70?

Welcome to the MA (Mastercard Incorporated) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 79/100 (Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow) in Business Services. Bulls point to capital efficiency (33.5% ROIC), while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (37.2x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $521.27 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $635.70

Pump the brakes on MA — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MA, but look at what you are paying: 37.2x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Mastercard Incorporated expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MA MacroHawk_NYC Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $737.41 (+16.0%)
Spot @ $635.70

MA cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MA, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Business Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $635.70 (52-wk range $464.52 - $644.24), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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