MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 1d ago
Mattel (MAT): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q2 Earnings?Yahoo Finance report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why MAT Stock advanced +0.71% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$15.53 +0.71% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.52
Mattel Inc. (MAT) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $4.41B
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Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MAT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
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Is MAT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Mattel Inc. (NASDAQ: MAT) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $15.53 (+0.71% 1D, market cap $4.41B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MAT ranks #201 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does MAT compare to GOLF and YETI in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Recreational Games/Products/Toys), MAT carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.1x, gross margin of 48.7%, and ROIC of 13.0%. By comparison, GOLF (Acushnet Holdings Corp.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 26.5x, ROIC 13.8%, cap $4.98B) and YETI (YETI Holdings Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 19.5x, ROIC 23.5%, cap $3.19B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MAT leads on earnings multiple (11.1x) while YETI leads on capital efficiency (23.5% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MAT?
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Per MAT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000063276), Mattel Inc. generated $5.35B in revenue (-0.6% YoY), $398.0M in net income, and $352.6M in free cash flow against $6.64B in total assets and $2.33B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.52 (-0.06%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 6.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C+ · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.1% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MAT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MAT SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (27% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (22% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.06 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B+$16.65+1.8% Next Q
75
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B$16.95-9.9% Next Q
72
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B$15.28+1.6% Next Q
70
CurrentGrade C+$15.53+1.6% Hist 90D α
67
Trajectory: B+ (75) → C+ (67)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MAT Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, MAT faces multiple-compression risk if 11.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 46.2% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($15.02) or 200D SMA ($15.38) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($16.16) toward Bear Floor ($12.60).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MAT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MAT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why MAT Stock advanced +0.71% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Mattel Inc. (MAT) advanced +0.71% to $15.53, trading at 31% of its 52-week range ($12.4 – $22.48). Solid 48.7% gross margin (13% return on capital), mixed timing at 11x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 31% of its 52-week range ($12.4 – $22.48) with RSI-14 at 45.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.7% around $15.53 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 48.7% gross margin and $352.6M annual free cash flow.
Live MAT Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREThe Motley Fool • 1d ago
How to Buy Mattel Stock (MAT) in 2026The Motley Fool report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREStocktwits • 1d ago
MAT Stock Eyes Best Week In 16 Months On Mattel Buyout Buzz — Retail Traders See Room Above $20Stocktwits report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREReuters • 1d ago
Mattel investor Ariel pushes for sale as turnaround stallsReuters report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
CATALYSTCNBC • 1d ago
Barbie maker Mattel faces investor pressure to consider a sale amid stagnating growthCNBC report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
CATALYSTInvesting.com • 2d ago
Why did Mattel stock surge 5% today?Investing.com report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREWSJ • 2d ago
Barbie-Maker Mattel Faces Growing Shareholder Pressure to Consider a SaleWSJ report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance Australia • 2d ago
Mattel, Inc. (MAT) stock price, news, quote and historyYahoo Finance Australia report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 3d ago
Is Mattel (MAT) A Bargain Following Its Fisher Price Mini Marathon?Mattel (MAT) has drawn fresh attention after hosting the first Fisher-Price Mini Marathon in New York City, using the event to spotlight its baby walkers and deepen ties with young families. Recent board and CFO appointm
MARKET WIREYahoo • 3d ago
Mattel (MAT) Stock Looks Fairly Priced Following Its 29% Five Year SlideMattel shares closed at US$15.42 after a choppy stretch, and the real question for investors is whether that price can be explained by the cash the business is expected to generate over time. With the stock down over rec
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MAT Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
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MAT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.58%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $15.48H $15.53L $15.42C $15.53VOL 4.57M
RES: $17.67SUP: $11.30SMA50: $15.02SMA200: $15.38
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
MAT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
0.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -0.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MAT today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MAT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MAT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MAT)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #201 of 1009
⚔️ GOLF vs MAT Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MAT vs. GOLF, YETI, CALY, PTON)
Industry: Recreational Games/Products/Toys (20 Tracked Issuers)Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mattel Inc. (MAT) ranks #201 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #291 by equity capitalization ($4.41B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MAT leads on earnings valuation at 11.1x trailing P/E, while YETI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 23.5% ROIC and 57.4% gross margin. YETI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with MAT at 67/100 (C+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAT
ACTIVE
Mattel Inc. | C+ | 67/100 | 11.1x | 48.7% | 13.0% | +0.71% | $4.41B | Benchmark Subject |
| GOLF Acushnet Holdings Corp. | D+ | 57/100 | 26.5x | 47.7% | 13.8% | +4.88% | $4.98B | /golf-vs-mat → |
| YETI YETI Holdings Inc. | B | 74/100 | 19.5x | 57.4% | 23.5% | +4.03% | $3.19B | /yeti-vs-mat → |
| CALY Callaway Golf Company | D+ | 52/100 | — | 42.1% | 5.6% | +6.20% | $2.71B | /caly-vs-mat → |
| PTON Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A) | D- | 40/100 | — | 50.9% | -24.3% | +3.52% | $2.28B | /pton-vs-mat → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000063276 ↗In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mattel Inc. (MAT) reported GAAP revenue of $5.35B (-0.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.38B , and -1.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $398.0M, operating cash flow of $593.3M, and free cash flow of $352.6M (-36.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, MAT closed FY2025 with $6.64B in total assets against $2.33B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.06, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $5.35B | $398.0M | $593.3M | $352.6M | $6.64B | $2.33B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $5.38B | $542.0M | $800.6M | $558.5M | $6.54B | $2.33B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $5.44B | $214.0M | $869.8M | $624.9M | $6.53B | $1.53B |
3. MAT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs MAT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Mattel Inc. (NASDAQ: MAT) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $15.53 (+0.71% 1D, market cap $4.41B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MAT ranks #201 in composite RQD confidence.
How does MAT compare to GOLF and YETI in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Recreational Games/Products/Toys), MAT carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.1x, gross margin of 48.7%, and ROIC of 13.0%. By comparison, GOLF (Acushnet Holdings Corp.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 26.5x, ROIC 13.8%, cap $4.98B) and YETI (YETI Holdings Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 19.5x, ROIC 23.5%, cap $3.19B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MAT leads on earnings multiple (11.1x) while YETI leads on capital efficiency (23.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MAT?
Per MAT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000063276), Mattel Inc. generated $5.35B in revenue (-0.6% YoY), $398.0M in net income, and $352.6M in free cash flow against $6.64B in total assets and $2.33B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is MAT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
MAT last traded at $15.53 (+0.71% on volume of 4,511,498 shares), positioning the stock +3.40% above its 50-day simple moving average ($15.02) and +0.98% above its 200-day simple moving average ($15.38). Across its 52-week range of $12.40 to $22.48, MAT sits at the 31.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.7% ($14.64 to $16.42).
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 67/100 (C+)
✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED
MAT — Mattel Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Mattel Inc. (MAT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 67/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $15.53 (+0.71% 1D, market capitalization $4.41B).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13.0%, gross margin of 48.7%, operating margin of 10.2%, and free cash flow yield of 7.97%.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.14x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.06, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.04x.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
Mattel Inc. (MAT) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Recreational Games/Products/Toys industry. It reports annual revenue in the $5.3–5.4B range across the three reported periods.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Mattel Inc. (MAT) reported $5.35B in annual revenue (up from $5.38B in FY2024, -0.6% YoY) and $398.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($5.44B revenue, $214.0M net income) through FY2025, MAT scaled operating cash flow to $593.3M and free cash flow to $352.6M, backed by $6.64B in total assets against $2.33B in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 67/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $12.40 – $22.48 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 11.1x trailing P/E and 7.3x EV/EBITDA against 10.2% operating margins and a 1.14x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no upstream or downstream dependencies, no sector correlations, and no proprietary signals for MAT. An investor should note that the sale-pressure headlines are the only sector-relevant context provided, and their second-order effects on suppliers, retailers, or peer toy companies cannot be assessed from the supplied data.
- Key Question #1: Can MAT sustain or expand its 10.2% operating margin and 13.0% ROIC against Recreational Games/Products/Toys peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $5.35B and free cash flow of $352.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.33B in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is MAT's 10.3x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.14x)?
MAT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Mattel Inc. (MAT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago
Mattel (MAT): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q2 Earnings? Yahoo Finance report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE The Motley Fool • 1d ago
How to Buy Mattel Stock (MAT) in 2026 The Motley Fool report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Stocktwits • 1d ago
MAT Stock Eyes Best Week In 16 Months On Mattel Buyout Buzz — Retail Traders See Room Above $20 Stocktwits report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Reuters • 1d ago
Mattel investor Ariel pushes for sale as turnaround stalls Reuters report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟢 CATALYST CNBC • 1d ago
Barbie maker Mattel faces investor pressure to consider a sale amid stagnating growth CNBC report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟢 CATALYST Investing.com • 2d ago
Why did Mattel stock surge 5% today? Investing.com report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE WSJ • 2d ago
Barbie-Maker Mattel Faces Growing Shareholder Pressure to Consider a Sale WSJ report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance Australia • 2d ago
Mattel, Inc. (MAT) stock price, news, quote and history Yahoo Finance Australia report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE
3 Active Posts & Replies
MAT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $15.53?
🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MAT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH
🎯 Target: $19.58 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate Insider conviction scores 18/20 and the 7.97% FCF yield at a 10.3 forward P/E gives a cash-generation case while sale pressure is in pl
Insider conviction scores 18/20 and the 7.97% FCF yield at a 10.3 forward P/E gives a cash-generation case while sale pressure is in play.. When you look under the hood at MAT, Fundamental Cash Engine is 14/20 with 48.7% gross margins and 13.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (9/20) has been quietly accumulating below $22.48. My 12M target is $19.58.
EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL
Both sides have a point here — MAT's 15/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.
ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $12.03 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $15.42 Net income fell from $542.0M to $398.0M and free cash flow from $558.5M to $352.6M while the stock carries a 0% dividend and Beta of 1.
Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on MAT: Net income fell from $542.0M to $398.0M and free cash flow from $558.5M to $352.6M while the stock carries a 0% dividend and Beta of 1.14.. At 11.1x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Recreational Games/Products/Toys triggers a 12-15% air pocket.