ROARABLE
FREE $100K
My Trading Account →
▾
Trading Profile Active
Active Trader
Verified Trader
⚡ My $100K Trading Account → ★ My Saved Watchlist →
🟢 My $100K Account → Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Financials / MBI / financials
OSG (33) KWY (32) KINS (72) JRVR (35) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

MBIA Inc. (MBI) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$4.43 -3.27% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.40

MBIA Inc. (MBI) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $233.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MBI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $4.43 (-3.27% 1D, market cap $233.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MBI ranks #680 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MBI compare to OSG and KWY in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), MBI carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, OSG (Octave Specialty Group Inc.) holds a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $234.3M) and KWY (Kingsway Corporation) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.6%, cap $288.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JRVR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while KINS leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MBI?
▼

Per MBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000814585), MBIA Inc. generated $80.0M in revenue (+90.5% YoY), -$177.0M in net income, and $38.0M in free cash flow against $2.01B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.40 (-0.78%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 47.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510049
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (14)Whales (6)SEC (11)Macro (7)CEO (11)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.1% Base Target
$8 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE MBI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MBI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MBI SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 47.5% FCF Margin ($38.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
41
Grade D$4.40+0.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
44
Grade D$4.41+1.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
46
Grade D$4.46-0.7% Next Q
Current
49
Grade D$4.43-5.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (41) → D (49)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MBI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MBI currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.52) and Max Pain ($4.65) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.26.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MBI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MBI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 49%NO 51%Trade / Inspect Odds →
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How MBI Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$38.0M (47.5% FCF Margin)
Revenue$80.0MGross Profit $41.6M (52%)Cost of Sales $38.4MOp Profit $0 (0%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $41.6MNet Profit$0 (0%)Tax/Other $0

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $7.0M
FY24
Rev $42.0M
FY25
Rev $80.0M
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$80.0M52%0%-$177.0M$38.0M15%
FY 2024$42.0M52%0%$435.0M-$176.0M15%
FY 2023$7.0M52%0%$477.0M-$195.0M15%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MBI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MBI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
MBI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.92%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-04O $4.46H $4.58L $4.43C $4.43VOL 290.7K
RES: $4.51SUP: $3.75SMA50: $4.52SMA200: $5.63
$7.15$6.35$5.55$4.74$3.94RES $4.51SUP $3.75$4.432026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MBI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MBI Butterfly Map → + Track MBI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +90.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MBI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MBI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MBI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MBI)

Financials Rank #680 of 1097 ⚔️ OSG vs MBI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MBI vs. OSG, KWY, KINS, JRVR)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MBIA Inc. (MBI) ranks #680 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #859 by equity capitalization ($233.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JRVR leads on earnings valuation at 3.8x trailing P/E, while KINS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.2% ROIC and — gross margin. KINS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with MBI at 49/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MBI ACTIVE
MBIA Inc.
D 49/100 — — — -3.27% $233.7M Benchmark Subject
OSG
Octave Specialty Group Inc.
E 33/100 — — -35.0% -3.65% $234.3M /osg-vs-mbi →
KWY
Kingsway Corporation
E 32/100 — — -13.6% -1.30% $288.2M /kwy-vs-mbi →
KINS
Kingstone Companies Inc.
B 72/100 7.1x — 33.2% -2.30% $295.5M /kins-vs-mbi →
JRVR
James River Group Holdings Inc.
D- 35/100 3.8x — 8.8% -2.77% $183.6M /jrvr-vs-mbi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000814585 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MBIA Inc. (MBI) reported GAAP revenue of $80.0M (+90.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $42.0M , and +1042.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$177.0M, operating cash flow of $38.0M, and free cash flow of $38.0M (+121.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, MBI closed FY2025 with $2.01B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $80.0M -$177.0M $38.0M $38.0M $2.01B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $42.0M $435.0M -$176.0M -$176.0M $2.17B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $7.0M $477.0M -$195.0M -$195.0M — —

3. MBI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $4.43 (-3.27% 1D, market cap $233.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MBI ranks #680 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MBI compare to OSG and KWY in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), MBI carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, OSG (Octave Specialty Group Inc.) holds a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $234.3M) and KWY (Kingsway Corporation) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.6%, cap $288.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JRVR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while KINS leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MBI?

Per MBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000814585), MBIA Inc. generated $80.0M in revenue (+90.5% YoY), -$177.0M in net income, and $38.0M in free cash flow against $2.01B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MBI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MBI last traded at $4.43 (-3.27% on volume of 340,642 shares), positioning the stock -1.99% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.52) and -21.31% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.63). Across its 52-week range of $4.19 to $7.87, MBI sits at the 6.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.8% ($4.17 to $4.69).

Direct Sub-Reports: MBI RQD Cockpit MBI 12M Forecast MBI Earnings & Move MBI Dividends & DRIP MBI Insiders & 13F MBI Whale Options MBI Profit Sankey MBI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 49/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MBI — MBIA Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

MBIA Inc. (MBI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 49/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $4.43 (-3.27% 1D, market capitalization $233.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 16.74%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

MBIA Inc. (MBI) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating in the Property-Casualty Insurers industry (per the company profile). Its market capitalization is $0.2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), MBIA Inc. (MBI) reported $80.0M in annual revenue (up from $42.0M in FY2024, +90.5% YoY) and -$177.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($7.0M revenue, $477.0M net income) through FY2025, MBI scaled operating cash flow to $38.0M and free cash flow to $38.0M, backed by $2.01B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 49/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 16.74% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $4.19 – $7.87 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore — A prospective investor should note that the absence of mapped links means this analysis cannot identify ripple effects from the data provided.

  • Key Question #1: Can MBI sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Property-Casualty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $80.0M and free cash flow of $38.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MBI's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MBI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for MBIA Inc. (MBI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MBI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MBI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.43?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MBI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MBI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $5.31 (+19.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate

A 16.74% FCF yield offers high cash generation relative to the $4.45 share price, per the market data.

Don't sleep on MBI's setup in Financials. A 16.74% FCF yield offers high cash generation relative to the $4.45 share price, per the market data.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (49/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — MBI's 11/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.84 (-13.9%)
Spot @ $4.46

A 0% ROIC and -60% net margin, alongside a 43–44% drawdown from the high, signal weak returns and distribution pressure.

I respect the product at MBIA Inc., but the stock at $4.46 is a different story. A 0% ROIC and -60% net margin, alongside a 43–44% drawdown from the high, signal weak returns and distribution pressure.. FCF yield is 16.74% and RQD sits at 49/100 (D) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

LIVE TAPE