ROARABLE
FREE $100K
My Trading Account →
▾
Trading Profile Active
Active Trader
Verified Trader
⚡ My $100K Trading Account → ★ My Saved Watchlist →
🟢 My $100K Account → Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Financials / MC / earnings
HLNE (66) FHI (74) STEP (46) MAAS (49) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Moelis & Company (MC) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.6% Move

$60.98 +4.08% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $61.31

Moelis & Company (MC) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $4.59B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Moelis & Company (NYSE: MC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $60.98 (+4.08% 1D, market cap $4.59B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 19/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MC ranks #267 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MC compare to HLNE and FHI in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), MC carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 42.8%. By comparison, HLNE (Hamilton Lane Incorporated) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 18.9x, ROIC 24.7%, cap $4.62B) and FHI (Federated Hermes Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 10.7x, ROIC 39.8%, cap $4.37B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FHI leads on earnings multiple (10.7x) while MC leads on capital efficiency (42.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MC?
▼

Per MC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001596967), Moelis & Company generated $766.8M in revenue (+58.4% YoY), $259.6M in net income, and $540.0M in free cash flow against $1.74B in total assets and $477.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $61.31 (+0.54%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 70.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510064
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B · Rk D+
Cash (17)Whales (7)SEC (15)Macro (6)CEO (19)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target
$82 Bull$63 Base$49 Bear
📬 FREE MC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MC SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+19/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 70.4% FCF Margin ($540.0M FCF) & 0% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (53.2) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$54.27-2.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
59
Grade C$53.06+9.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
61
Grade C$58.30+4.6% Next Q
Current
64
Grade C$60.98+1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, MC faces multiple-compression risk if 18.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($59.72) or 200D SMA ($63.73) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($62.63) toward Bear Floor ($48.85).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.6% Swing Band

±$4.63 Expected Swing
$56.35 (-7.6%)Spot $60.98$65.61 (+7.6%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MC Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 64/100

Trailing EPS: $3.32 • YoY Revenue Growth: 23.1%

Model Bullish Setup (64/100)Model Risk Weight (36/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$766.8M$259.6M$540.0M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$484.2M$151.5M$415.4M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$113.0M-$27.5M$158.5M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MC & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MC
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
MC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -2.15%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $59.98H $60.98L $58.59C $60.98VOL 735.2K
RES: $67.67SUP: $49.99SMA50: $59.72SMA200: $63.73
$74.14$67.97$61.80$55.63$49.47RES $67.67SUP $49.99$60.982026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MC Butterfly Map → + Track MC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
11.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +58.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MC)

Financials Rank #267 of 1097 ⚔️ HLNE vs MC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MC vs. HLNE, FHI, STEP, MAAS)

Industry: Investment Managers (79 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Moelis & Company (MC) ranks #267 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #285 by equity capitalization ($4.59B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FHI leads on earnings valuation at 10.7x trailing P/E, while MC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 42.8% ROIC and — gross margin. FHI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with MC at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MC ACTIVE
Moelis & Company
C 64/100 18.1x — 42.8% +4.08% $4.59B Benchmark Subject
HLNE
Hamilton Lane Incorporated
C+ 66/100 18.9x — 24.7% +4.68% $4.62B /hlne-vs-mc →
FHI
Federated Hermes Inc.
B 74/100 10.7x — 39.8% +6.98% $4.37B /fhi-vs-mc →
STEP
StepStone Group Inc.
D 46/100 — — -35.0% +3.73% $5.22B /step-vs-mc →
MAAS
Maase Inc. (Class A)
D 49/100 — — — +1.39% $5.42B /maas-vs-mc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001596967 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Moelis & Company (MC) reported GAAP revenue of $766.8M (+58.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $484.2M , and +578.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $259.6M, operating cash flow of $576.3M, and free cash flow of $540.0M (+30.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, MC closed FY2025 with $1.74B in total assets against $477.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $766.8M $259.6M $576.3M $540.0M $1.74B $477.1M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $484.2M $151.5M $427.5M $415.4M $1.38B $404.8M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $113.0M -$27.5M $158.5M $158.5M $2.58B $604.2M

3. MC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Moelis & Company (NYSE: MC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $60.98 (+4.08% 1D, market cap $4.59B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 19/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MC ranks #267 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MC compare to HLNE and FHI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), MC carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 42.8%. By comparison, HLNE (Hamilton Lane Incorporated) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 18.9x, ROIC 24.7%, cap $4.62B) and FHI (Federated Hermes Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 10.7x, ROIC 39.8%, cap $4.37B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FHI leads on earnings multiple (10.7x) while MC leads on capital efficiency (42.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MC?

Per MC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001596967), Moelis & Company generated $766.8M in revenue (+58.4% YoY), $259.6M in net income, and $540.0M in free cash flow against $1.74B in total assets and $477.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MC last traded at $60.98 (+4.08% on volume of 1,099,498 shares), positioning the stock +2.11% above its 50-day simple moving average ($59.72) and -4.32% below its 200-day simple moving average ($63.73). Across its 52-week range of $51.06 to $78.22, MC sits at the 36.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.6% ($56.35 to $65.61).

Direct Sub-Reports: MC RQD Cockpit MC 12M Forecast MC Earnings & Move MC Dividends & DRIP MC Insiders & 13F MC Whale Options MC Profit Sankey MC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 64/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MC — Moelis & Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Moelis & Company (MC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 64/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $60.98 (+4.08% 1D, market capitalization $4.59B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (17/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 42.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 20.8%, and free cash flow yield of 11.50%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (19/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 0.88x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Moelis & Company (MC) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Investment Managers industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $4.59B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 20.8%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 42.8% (free cash flow yield of 11.5%). Within the Investment Managers peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Moelis & Company (MC) reported $766.8M in annual revenue (up from $484.2M in FY2024, +58.4% YoY) and $259.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($113.0M revenue, -$27.5M net income) through FY2025, MC scaled operating cash flow to $576.3M and free cash flow to $540.0M, backed by $1.74B in total assets against $477.1M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 64/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 17/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $51.06 – $78.22 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 18.1x trailing P/E and 15.2x EV/EBITDA against 20.8% operating margins and a 0.88x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Investment Managers (Financials), MC carries a macro regime beta of 0.88 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can MC sustain or expand its 20.8% operating margin and 42.8% ROIC against Investment Managers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $766.8M and free cash flow of $540.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $477.1M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MC's 15.2x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.88x)?

MC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Moelis & Company (MC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $60.98?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $71.48 (+22.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction (19/20) and a 42.8% ROIC with an 11.5% FCF yield anchor the Roarable rating on cash generation.

Picked up a starter position in MC in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $58.59. Insider conviction (19/20) and a 42.8% ROIC with an 11.5% FCF yield anchor the Roarable rating on cash generation.. Trading inside a $51.06–$78.22 52-week range with 11.5% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Investment Managers multiples expand this quarter.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@BreakoutHunter Agree on the RQD 64/100 quality, though with 0.88 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $58.59 and keeping dry powder in case we test $54.49.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $43.94 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $58.59

The Macro Regime Fit pillar scores only 7/20, and a headline cites a price target cut to $67.5.

Careful chasing MC at $58.59. The Macro Regime Fit pillar scores only 7/20, and a headline cites a price target cut to $67.5.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 20.8%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $43.94 on multiple compression.

LIVE TAPE