Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-03, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: MDGL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $431.16 (+0.19% 1D, market cap $9.94B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, MDGL ranks #494 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), MDGL carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -29.7%. By comparison, SYRE (Spyre Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -20.0%, cap $10.08B) and PTGX (Protagonist Therapeutics Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -16.7%, cap $9.37B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TGTX leads on earnings multiple (19.9x) while TGTX leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).
Per MDGL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001157601), Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $958.4M in revenue (+432.1% YoY), -$288.3M in net income, and -$190.0M in free cash flow against $1.26B in total assets and $339.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
Altman Z-Score 7.65 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (30.1) create a -16 pt regime headwind
While MDGL currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($493.72) and Max Pain ($452.72) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $645.75.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) advanced +0.19% to $431.16, trading at 15% of its 52-week range ($399 – $615). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-30% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Yahoo Finance report covering Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stocktwits report covering Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stocks Down Under report covering Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
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Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +432.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MDGL today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MDGL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) ranks #494 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #111 by equity capitalization ($9.94B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TGTX leads on earnings valuation at 19.9x trailing P/E, while TGTX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.0% ROIC and 83.7% gross margin. PTGX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with MDGL at 38/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDGL
ACTIVE
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. | D- | 38/100 | — | — | -29.7% | +0.19% | $9.94B | Benchmark Subject |
| SYRE Spyre Therapeutics Inc. | D+ | 55/100 | — | — | -20.0% | -1.09% | $10.08B | /syre-vs-mdgl → |
| PTGX Protagonist Therapeutics Inc. | C | 65/100 | — | — | -16.7% | -3.78% | $9.37B | /ptgx-vs-mdgl → |
| TGTX TG Therapeutics Inc. | C | 63/100 | 19.9x | 83.7% | 12.0% | -2.01% | $9.36B | /tgtx-vs-mdgl → |
| CORT Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated | C | 63/100 | 93.2x | 96.0% | 4.8% | -0.81% | $8.77B | /cort-vs-mdgl → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) reported GAAP revenue of $958.4M (+432.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $180.1M , and -10.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$288.3M, operating cash flow of -$189.6M, and free cash flow of -$190.0M (+58.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, MDGL closed FY2025 with $1.26B in total assets against $339.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 7.65, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $958.4M | -$288.3M | -$189.6M | -$190.0M | $1.26B | $339.9M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $180.1M | -$465.9M | -$455.6M | -$457.0M | $1.04B | $117.6M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.07B | -$373.6M | -$324.2M | -$324.2M | $5.49B | $1.28B |
As of 2026-11-03, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: MDGL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $431.16 (+0.19% 1D, market cap $9.94B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, MDGL ranks #494 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), MDGL carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -29.7%. By comparison, SYRE (Spyre Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -20.0%, cap $10.08B) and PTGX (Protagonist Therapeutics Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -16.7%, cap $9.37B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TGTX leads on earnings multiple (19.9x) while TGTX leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).
Per MDGL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001157601), Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $958.4M in revenue (+432.1% YoY), -$288.3M in net income, and -$190.0M in free cash flow against $1.26B in total assets and $339.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
MDGL last traded at $431.16 (+0.19% on volume of 495,143 shares), positioning the stock -12.67% below its 50-day simple moving average ($493.72) and -13.58% below its 200-day simple moving average ($498.90). Across its 52-week range of $399.00 to $615.00, MDGL sits at the 14.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 30.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.8% ($401.84 to $460.48).
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 38/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $431.16 (+0.19% 1D, market capitalization $9.94B).
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry..0B. FY 2025 revenue was $958.4M, indicating a commercial-stage revenue base.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) reported $958.4M in annual revenue (up from $180.1M in FY2024, +432.1% YoY) and -$288.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.07B revenue, -$373.6M net income) through FY2025, MDGL scaled operating cash flow to -$189.6M and free cash flow to -$190.0M, backed by $1.26B in total assets against $339.9M in total debt.
Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), MDGL carries a macro regime beta of 1.08 and gross margin of —.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance report covering Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stocktwits report covering Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stocks Down Under report covering Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Here is why I am bullish on MDGL here at $430.36: Forensic balance-sheet strength (Altman Z 7.65, Piotroski F 6/9, Debt/Equity 0.56) plus an analyst price-target raise on the F4 trial outlook support the thesis despite weak cash flow.. Compare MDGL's -31.3% operating margin and -29.7% ROIC against the rest of Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $408.84 are getting bought.
@FadeTheHype Fair point on 24.0x forward P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.
ROIC of -29.7%, FCF yield of -1.91%, and FY 2025 FCF of -$190.0M against $198.7M cash show the business is not self-funding while the stock trades at a 24 forward P/E.. Look at the math on MDGL: paying 24.0x forward P/E for -29.7% ROIC and -31.3% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $378.72 before getting long.
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