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MiMedx Group Inc (MDXG) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$3.28 -15.46% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.18

MiMedx Group Inc (MDXG) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $566.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MDXG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MDXG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, MiMedx Group Inc (NASDAQ: MDXG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $3.28 (-15.46% 1D, market cap $566.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 19/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, MDXG ranks #85 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MDXG compare to TCMD and SGHT in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), MDXG carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.9x, gross margin of 82.6%, and ROIC of 47.2%. By comparison, TCMD (Tactile Systems Technology Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 28.9x, ROIC 17.1%, cap $521.9M) and SGHT (Sight Sciences Inc.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $513.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MDXG leads on earnings multiple (11.9x) while MDXG leads on capital efficiency (47.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MDXG?
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Per MDXG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001376339), MiMedx Group Inc generated $418.6M in revenue (+20.0% YoY), $48.6M in net income, and $74.0M in free cash flow against $342.7M in total assets and $16.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (82.6% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.18 (-2.97%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 17.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C+ · Rk B
Cash (18)Whales (3)SEC (18)Macro (11)CEO (19)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target
$8 Bull$3 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE MDXG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MDXG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MDXG SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+19/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 17.7% FCF Margin ($74.0M FCF) & 82.6% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
77
Grade B+$4.69-9.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
74
Grade B+$4.23-7.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
72
Grade B$3.90-15.9% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$3.28+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B+ (77) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MDXG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, MDXG faces multiple-compression risk if 11.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 80.1% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($4.47) or 200D SMA ($4.26) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($3.44) toward Bear Floor ($2.68).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MDXG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MDXG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MDXG Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $3.28: 3048.8 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $2.68
$8,171
$-1,829 (-18.3%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $3.44
$10,488
+$488 (+4.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $8.37
$25,518
+$15,518 (+155.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$474%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$869%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$358%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MDXG Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MDXG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -9.14%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-03O $3.97H $3.97L $3.28C $3.28VOL 2.12M
RES: $5.32SUP: $4.15SMA50: $4.47SMA200: $4.26
$6.21$5.42$4.62$3.83$3.03RES $5.32SUP $4.15$3.282026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MDXG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MDXG Butterfly Map → + Track MDXG →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
2.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MDXG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MDXG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MDXG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MDXG)

Health Care Rank #85 of 1015 ⚔️ TCMD vs MDXG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (MDXG vs. TCMD, SGHT, ANGO, SENS)

Industry: Medical/Dental Instruments (120 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MiMedx Group Inc (MDXG) ranks #85 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #422 by equity capitalization ($566.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MDXG leads on earnings valuation at 11.9x trailing P/E, while MDXG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 47.2% ROIC and 82.6% gross margin. MDXG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MDXG ACTIVE
MiMedx Group Inc
C+ 69/100 11.9x 82.6% 47.2% -15.46% $566.2M Benchmark Subject
TCMD
Tactile Systems Technology Inc.
C+ 67/100 28.9x 75.9% 17.1% -0.74% $521.9M /tcmd-vs-mdxg →
SGHT
Sight Sciences Inc.
D- 39/100 — 86.2% -35.0% -1.82% $513.4M /sght-vs-mdxg →
ANGO
AngioDynamics Inc.
D- 36/100 — 54.6% -23.4% -1.92% $504.2M /ango-vs-mdxg →
SENS
Senseonics Holdings Inc.
D- 40/100 — 44.7% -35.0% -5.57% $502.8M /sens-vs-mdxg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001376339 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MiMedx Group Inc (MDXG) reported GAAP revenue of $418.6M (+20.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $348.9M , and +30.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $48.6M, operating cash flow of $74.0M, and free cash flow of $74.0M (+11.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, MDXG closed FY2025 with $342.7M in total assets against $16.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.45, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $418.6M $48.6M $74.0M $74.0M $342.7M $16.5M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $348.9M $42.4M $66.2M $66.2M $263.9M $17.8M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $321.5M $58.2M $26.8M $26.8M — —

3. MDXG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MDXG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, MiMedx Group Inc (NASDAQ: MDXG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $3.28 (-15.46% 1D, market cap $566.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 19/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, MDXG ranks #85 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MDXG compare to TCMD and SGHT in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), MDXG carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.9x, gross margin of 82.6%, and ROIC of 47.2%. By comparison, TCMD (Tactile Systems Technology Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 28.9x, ROIC 17.1%, cap $521.9M) and SGHT (Sight Sciences Inc.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $513.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MDXG leads on earnings multiple (11.9x) while MDXG leads on capital efficiency (47.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MDXG?

Per MDXG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001376339), MiMedx Group Inc generated $418.6M in revenue (+20.0% YoY), $48.6M in net income, and $74.0M in free cash flow against $342.7M in total assets and $16.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (82.6% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MDXG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MDXG last traded at $3.28 (-15.46% on volume of 2,561,835 shares), positioning the stock -26.62% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.47) and -23.00% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.26). Across its 52-week range of $3.03 to $7.97, MDXG sits at the 5.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.2% ($2.95 to $3.61).

Direct Sub-Reports: MDXG RQD Cockpit MDXG 12M Forecast MDXG Earnings & Move MDXG Dividends & DRIP MDXG Insiders & 13F MDXG Whale Options MDXG Profit Sankey MDXG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MDXG — MiMedx Group Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

MiMedx Group Inc (MDXG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 69/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $3.28 (-15.46% 1D, market capitalization $566.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (18/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 47.2%, gross margin of 82.6%, operating margin of 15.3%, and free cash flow yield of 12.77%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (19/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 6.45, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.06x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

MiMedx Group Inc (MDXG) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Medical/Dental Instruments industry (per the company profile). The source data reports gross margin of 82.6%, operating margin of 15.3%, and net margin of 11.6% (per the market data).

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), MiMedx Group Inc (MDXG) reported $418.6M in annual revenue (up from $348.9M in FY2024, +20.0% YoY) and $48.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($321.5M revenue, $58.2M net income) through FY2025, MDXG scaled operating cash flow to $74.0M and free cash flow to $74.0M, backed by $342.7M in total assets against $16.5M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 69/100): Strong cash generator (82.6% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 18/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.03 – $7.97 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 11.9x trailing P/E and 6.7x EV/EBITDA against 15.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Medical/Dental Instruments (Health Care), MDXG carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 82.6%.

  • Key Question #1: Can MDXG sustain or expand its 15.3% operating margin and 47.2% ROIC against Medical/Dental Instruments peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $418.6M and free cash flow of $74.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $16.5M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MDXG's 10.0x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MDXG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for MiMedx Group Inc (MDXG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MDXG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MDXG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.28?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MDXG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MDXG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.85 (+25.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the Roarable RQD rating, a 47.2% ROIC and 12.77% FCF yield at a 10x forward P/E indicate strong cash generation relative to the sta

Don't sleep on MDXG's setup in Health Care. Per the Roarable RQD rating, a 47.2% ROIC and 12.77% FCF yield at a 10x forward P/E indicate strong cash generation relative to the stated valuation.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (69/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — MDXG's 18/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.03 (-21.9%)
Spot @ $3.88

Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Whale 13F Flow pillar scores only 4 / 20, indicating thin institutional support for the rating.

I respect the product at MiMedx Group Inc, but the stock at $3.88 is a different story. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Whale 13F Flow pillar scores only 4 / 20, indicating thin institutional support for the rating.. FCF yield is 12.77% and RQD sits at 69/100 (C+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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