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Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / MED / options
BYND (29) BGS (29) OTLY (45) AFRI (24) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

MEDIFAST INC (MED) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$12.53 +3.13% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.58

MEDIFAST INC (MED) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $135.9M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MED Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MED stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, MEDIFAST INC (NYSE: MED) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $12.53 (+3.13% 1D, market cap $135.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, MED ranks #86 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MED compare to BYND and BGS in the Consumer Staples sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), MED carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 71.3%, and ROIC of -10.2%. By comparison, BYND (Beyond Meat Inc.) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $118.8M) and BGS (B&G Foods Inc.) posts a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.3%, cap $188.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MED leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while BGS leads on capital efficiency (3.3% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MED?
β–Ό

Per MED's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000910329), MEDIFAST INC generated $385.8M in revenue (-36.0% YoY), -$19.0M in net income, and $1.2M in free cash flow against $248.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.58 (+0.37%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) β€’ 0.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 Β· D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D
025507510048
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D Β· Rk D+
Cash (12)Whales (10)SEC (11)Macro (10)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
$14 Bull$12 Base$9 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE MED RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MED)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±6.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY MED SCORES 48/100 (D) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.3% FCF Margin ($1.2M FCF) & 71.3% Gross Margin

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.71 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 5/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
40
Grade D$11.67+3.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
43
Grade D$12.06+3.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
45
Grade D$12.49+0.3% Next Q
Current
48
Grade D$12.53-5.6% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (40) β†’ D (48)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MED Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While MED currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.00) and Max Pain ($13.16) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $14.12.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MEDβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œMED Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±6.8%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (MED)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for MED.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MED)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of MED's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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MED // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.87%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $12.26H $12.53L $12.15C $12.53VOL 231.9K
RES: $13.47SUP: $11.33SMA50: $12.00SMA200: $11.32
$13.73$12.56$11.38$10.20$9.02RES $13.47SUP $11.33$12.532026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MED Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ MED Butterfly Map β†’ + Track MED β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -36.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MED today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MED. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MED today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MED)

Consumer Staples Rank #86 of 147 βš”οΈ BYND vs MED Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (MED vs. BYND, BGS, OTLY, AFRI)

Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MEDIFAST INC (MED) ranks #86 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #100 by equity capitalization ($135.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MED leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while BGS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.3% ROIC and 21.8% gross margin. MED currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MED ACTIVE
MEDIFAST INC
D 48/100 β€” 71.3% -10.2% +3.13% $135.9M Benchmark Subject
BYND
Beyond Meat Inc.
E 29/100 β€” β€” -35.0% +2.03% $118.8M /bynd-vs-med β†’
BGS
B&G Foods Inc.
E 29/100 β€” 21.8% 3.3% +3.88% $188.6M /bgs-vs-med β†’
OTLY
Oatly Group AB
D 45/100 β€” β€” β€” -0.52% $247.3M /otly-vs-med β†’
AFRI
Forafric Global PLC
E 24/100 β€” 10.4% -16.5% -1.04% $337.3M /afri-vs-med β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000910329 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MEDIFAST INC (MED) reported GAAP revenue of $385.8M (-36.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $602.5M , and -64.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$19.0M, operating cash flow of $6.9M, and free cash flow of $1.2M (-92.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, MED closed FY2025 with $248.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.71, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $385.8M -$19.0M $6.9M $1.2M $248.0M β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $602.5M $2.0M $24.5M $17.0M $284.2M β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.07B $99.0M $147.7M $147.7M β€” β€”

3. MED Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MED stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, MEDIFAST INC (NYSE: MED) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $12.53 (+3.13% 1D, market cap $135.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, MED ranks #86 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MED compare to BYND and BGS in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), MED carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 71.3%, and ROIC of -10.2%. By comparison, BYND (Beyond Meat Inc.) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $118.8M) and BGS (B&G Foods Inc.) posts a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.3%, cap $188.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MED leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while BGS leads on capital efficiency (3.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MED?

Per MED's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000910329), MEDIFAST INC generated $385.8M in revenue (-36.0% YoY), -$19.0M in net income, and $1.2M in free cash flow against $248.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MED trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MED last traded at $12.53 (+3.13% on volume of 93,669 shares), positioning the stock +4.42% above its 50-day simple moving average ($12.00) and +10.69% above its 200-day simple moving average ($11.32). Across its 52-week range of $9.22 to $13.45, MED sits at the 78.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±6.8% ($11.68 to $13.38).

Direct Sub-Reports: MED RQD Cockpit MED 12M Forecast MED Earnings & Move MED Dividends & DRIP MED Insiders & 13F MED Whale Options MED Profit Sankey MED News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 48/100 (D) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MED β€” MEDIFAST INC: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

MEDIFAST INC (MED) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 48/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $12.53 (+3.13% 1D, market capitalization $135.9M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -10.2%, gross margin of 71.3%, operating margin of -3.7%, and free cash flow yield of 0.91%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.71, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Staples sector, operating in Packaged Foods, with a market capitalization of $0.1B. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 71.3%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), MEDIFAST INC (MED) reported $385.8M in annual revenue (up from $602.5M in FY2024, -36.0% YoY) and -$19.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.07B revenue, $99.0M net income) through FY2025, MED scaled operating cash flow to $6.9M and free cash flow to $1.2M, backed by $248.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D β€’ RQD 48/100): Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 0.91% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $9.22 – $13.45 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -3.7% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the source data. The only sector context available is the classification as Consumer Staples / Packaged Foods.

  • Key Question #1: Can MED sustain or expand its -3.7% operating margin and -10.2% ROIC against Packaged Foods peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $385.8M and free cash flow of $1.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MED's equity valuation to Consumer Staples capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MED Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for MEDIFAST INC (MED) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to MED Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MED Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $12.53?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MED 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MED:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ FCF Compounder Hunter πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $14.58 (+20.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

The forensic balance sheet scores 11 of 20 with an Altman Z of 4.71 and a Piotroski F of 5/9, indicating a more stable financial profil

Long MED at $12.15 targeting $14.58. The forensic balance sheet scores 11 of 20 with an Altman Z of 4.71 and a Piotroski F of 5/9, indicating a more stable financial profile than the earnings trend alone suggests.. Institutional whale score is 10/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $9.22 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

ArenaChamp_24 πŸ‚ BULL

@BearTrap_Alert Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Packaged Foods. If gross margin (71.3%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $10.33 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $12.15

Revenue fell from $1.07B in FY 2023 to $385.8M in FY 2025 while operating income turned to -$14.2M, with ROIC at -10.2% and an FCF yi

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short MED above $12.15. Revenue fell from $1.07B in FY 2023 to $385.8M in FY 2025 while operating income turned to -$14.2M, with ROIC at -10.2% and an FCF yield of 0.91%.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20) and FCF yield (0.91%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $13.45.

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