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Why MFA Stock dropped -2.06% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$6.64 -2.06% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.60

MFA Financial Inc. (MFA) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $685.4M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MFA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, MFA Financial Inc. (NYSE: MFA) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $6.64 (-2.06% 1D, market cap $685.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MFA ranks #757 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MFA compare to CLDT and PMT in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), MFA carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 3.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.7%. By comparison, CLDT (Chatham Lodging Trust of) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 46.3x, ROIC 4.5%, cap $698.9M) and PMT (PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust of) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E 7.5x, ROIC 4.6%, cap $700.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MFA leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while MFA leads on capital efficiency (9.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MFA?
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Per MFA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001055160), MFA Financial Inc. generated $5.48B in revenue (+14.3% YoY), $176.8M in net income, and $76.2M in free cash flow against $13.05B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.60 (-0.56%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 1.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510046
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk D
Cash (7)Whales (4)SEC (13)Macro (6)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target
$11 Bull$6 Base$5 Bear
📬 FREE MFA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MFA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MFA SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (35% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
38
Grade E$6.55-1.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
41
Grade D$6.47+4.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
43
Grade D$6.79-2.2% Next Q
Current
46
Grade D$6.64-6.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (38) → D (46)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MFA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MFA currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.68) and Max Pain ($6.97) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.95.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MFA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MFA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why MFA Stock dropped -2.06% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

MFA Financial Inc. (MFA) dropped -2.06% to $6.64, trading at 6% of its 52-week range ($6.38 – $10.43). Stretched risk/reward at 4x P/E (10% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 6% of its 52-week range ($6.38 – $10.43) with RSI-14 at 41.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.8% around $6.64 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $76.2M annual free cash flow.
Live MFA Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MFA)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MFA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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MFA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -30.47%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-04O $6.66H $6.78L $6.64C $6.64VOL 2.55M
RES: $8.25SUP: $6.05SMA50: $7.68SMA200: $9.15
$10.44$9.34$8.24$7.14$6.04RES $8.25SUP $6.05$6.642026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MFA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MFA Butterfly Map → + Track MFA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +14.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MFA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MFA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MFA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MFA)

Financials Rank #757 of 1097 ⚔️ CLDT vs MFA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MFA vs. CLDT, PMT, CIM, PSTL)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MFA Financial Inc. (MFA) ranks #757 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #636 by equity capitalization ($685.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MFA leads on earnings valuation at 3.9x trailing P/E, while MFA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.7% ROIC and — gross margin. PSTL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with MFA at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MFA ACTIVE
MFA Financial Inc.
D 46/100 3.9x — 9.7% -2.06% $685.4M Benchmark Subject
CLDT
Chatham Lodging Trust of
C- 61/100 46.3x — 4.5% +0.07% $698.9M /cldt-vs-mfa →
PMT
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust of
D- 35/100 7.5x — 4.6% -1.74% $700.2M /pmt-vs-mfa →
CIM
Chimera Investment Corporation
E 30/100 — — 9.0% -1.78% $706.5M /cim-vs-mfa →
PSTL
Postal Realty Trust Inc. (Class A)
C 62/100 46.4x — 9.6% -0.37% $655.5M /pstl-vs-mfa →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001055160 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MFA Financial Inc. (MFA) reported GAAP revenue of $5.48B (+14.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.79B , and +1226.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $176.8M, operating cash flow of $76.2M, and free cash flow of $76.2M (-61.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, MFA closed FY2025 with $13.05B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $5.48B $176.8M $76.2M $76.2M $13.05B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $4.79B $119.3M $200.1M $200.1M $11.41B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $413.2M $80.2M $108.7M $108.7M — —

3. MFA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MFA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, MFA Financial Inc. (NYSE: MFA) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $6.64 (-2.06% 1D, market cap $685.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MFA ranks #757 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MFA compare to CLDT and PMT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), MFA carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 3.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.7%. By comparison, CLDT (Chatham Lodging Trust of) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 46.3x, ROIC 4.5%, cap $698.9M) and PMT (PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust of) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E 7.5x, ROIC 4.6%, cap $700.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MFA leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while MFA leads on capital efficiency (9.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MFA?

Per MFA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001055160), MFA Financial Inc. generated $5.48B in revenue (+14.3% YoY), $176.8M in net income, and $76.2M in free cash flow against $13.05B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MFA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MFA last traded at $6.64 (-2.06% on volume of 2,732,429 shares), positioning the stock -13.54% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.68) and -27.43% below its 200-day simple moving average ($9.15). Across its 52-week range of $6.38 to $10.43, MFA sits at the 6.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.8% ($6.25 to $7.03).

Direct Sub-Reports: MFA RQD Cockpit MFA 12M Forecast MFA Earnings & Move MFA Dividends & DRIP MFA Insiders & 13F MFA Whale Options MFA Profit Sankey MFA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 46/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MFA — MFA Financial Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

MFA Financial Inc. (MFA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 46/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $6.64 (-2.06% 1D, market capitalization $685.4M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.7%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 11.09%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

MFA Financial Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry. The profile identifies a market capitalization of $0.7B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), MFA Financial Inc. (MFA) reported $5.48B in annual revenue (up from $4.79B in FY2024, +14.3% YoY) and $176.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($413.2M revenue, $80.2M net income) through FY2025, MFA scaled operating cash flow to $76.2M and free cash flow to $76.2M, backed by $13.05B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 46/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 11.09% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $6.38 – $10.43 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 3.9x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are — Sector correlations beyond the Financials / Real Estate Investment Trusts classification are — The one fundamental channel referenced in the news feed is rate exposure, which the Citizens headline ties to a price target change.

  • Key Question #1: Can MFA sustain or expand its — operating margin and 9.7% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $5.48B and free cash flow of $76.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MFA's 3.6x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MFA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for MFA Financial Inc. (MFA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MFA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MFA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $6.64?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MFA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MFA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $8.13 (+22.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction pillar scores 16 out of 20 and FCF yield is 11.09%, indicating strong cash generation relative to price.

Picked up a starter position in MFA in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $6.66. Insider conviction pillar scores 16 out of 20 and FCF yield is 11.09%, indicating strong cash generation relative to price.. Trading inside a $6.38–$10.43 52-week range with 11.09% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Real Estate Investment Trusts multiples expand this quarter.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Shorting a 4/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $6.66 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $5.33 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $6.66

RQD verdict is a distribution warning with whale 13F flow scoring only 4 out of 20 and a Citizens price target cut on rate exposure.

Careful chasing MFA at $6.66. RQD verdict is a distribution warning with whale 13F flow scoring only 4 out of 20 and a Citizens price target cut on rate exposure.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $5.33 on multiple compression.

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