Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc. (MGX) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$0.78 -6.01% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.77

Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc. (MGX) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 24/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $31.4M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MGX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: MGX) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 24/100 at a spot price of $0.78 (-6.01% 1D, market cap $31.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, MGX ranks #957 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MGX compare to ALGS and ESLA in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), MGX carries a Roarable E (24/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ALGS (Aligos Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $31.4M) and ESLA (Estrella Immunopharma Inc.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $31.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MGX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MGX leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MGX?
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Per MGX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001785279), Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc. generated $25.2M in revenue (-51.8% YoY), -$87.9M in net income, and -$89.5M in free cash flow against $221.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.77 (-1.27%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (24/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510024
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (5)Whales (4)SEC (5)Macro (7)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-15.4% Base Target
$3 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE MGX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MGX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (24/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MGX SCORES 24/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+7/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 39.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+5/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
32
Grade E$1.02-20.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
29
Grade E$0.81-4.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
27
Grade E$0.77+1.3% Next Q
Current
24
Grade E$0.78-10.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (32) → E (24)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MGX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MGX currently carries a cautious 24/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.04) and Max Pain ($0.82) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2.75.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MGX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MGX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
39.530 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)
0.20>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
1 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE2% OF RANGE
L: $1$0.78H: $3
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 5 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 7 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: ERQD 12 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on MGX

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (25)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (25)

Altman-Z 0.20 and Piotroski 1/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (23)

7/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 7/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MGX
  • ✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MGX)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MGX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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MGX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -44.68%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $0.82H $0.83L $0.78C $0.78VOL 72.0K
RES: $1.09SUP: $0.69SMA50: $1.04SMA200: $1.29
$1.94$1.62$1.29$0.97$0.65RES $1.09SUP $0.69$0.782026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MGX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -51.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MGX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MGX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MGX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MGX)

Health Care Rank #957 of 1016 ⚔️ ALGS vs MGX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (MGX vs. ALGS, ESLA, GNTA, EVAX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc. (MGX) ranks #957 by composite RQD confidence (24/100, grade E) and #801 by equity capitalization ($31.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MGX leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while MGX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. GNTA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 50/100 (D) compared with MGX at 24/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MGX ACTIVE
Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc.
E 24/100 — — -35.0% -6.01% $31.4M Benchmark Subject
ALGS
Aligos Therapeutics Inc.
E 22/100 — — -35.0% -4.57% $31.4M /algs-vs-mgx →
ESLA
Estrella Immunopharma Inc.
D- 39/100 — — -35.0% -12.27% $31.7M /esla-vs-mgx →
GNTA
Genenta Science S.p.A.
D 50/100 — — — -0.27% $29.9M /gnta-vs-mgx →
EVAX
Evaxion A/S
D 48/100 — — — -4.87% $27.8M /evax-vs-mgx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001785279

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc. (MGX) reported GAAP revenue of $25.2M (-51.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $52.3M , and -43.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$87.9M, operating cash flow of -$88.9M, and free cash flow of -$89.5M (+20.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, MGX closed FY2025 with $221.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $25.2M -$87.9M -$88.9M -$89.5M $221.1M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $52.3M -$78.1M -$109.1M -$112.2M $324.6M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $44.8M -$68.3M -$91.4M -$91.4M — —

3. MGX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MGX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: MGX) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 24/100 at a spot price of $0.78 (-6.01% 1D, market cap $31.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, MGX ranks #957 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MGX compare to ALGS and ESLA in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), MGX carries a Roarable E (24/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ALGS (Aligos Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $31.4M) and ESLA (Estrella Immunopharma Inc.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $31.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MGX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MGX leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MGX?

Per MGX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001785279), Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc. generated $25.2M in revenue (-51.8% YoY), -$87.9M in net income, and -$89.5M in free cash flow against $221.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MGX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MGX last traded at $0.78 (-6.01% on volume of 77,878 shares), positioning the stock -25.00% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.04) and -39.53% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.29). Across its 52-week range of $0.75 to $2.62, MGX sits at the 1.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.88).

MGX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell MGX stock right now?

Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc. (MGX) currently earns a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell — SELL) with 24/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is MGX's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

MGX's 12-month base price target is $0.66 (range $0.51 to $2.75), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 24/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MGX — Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:48:38Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The per the Roarable RQD rating, MGX scores 24 out of 100, a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 5 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of 0%. For a prospective investor, the company is not currently generating returns on invested capital or free cash flow to shareholders; any upside case must rest on future operating change rather than present cash generation.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 4 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The low score indicates little supportive institutional flow in the source data, which removes a potential demand tailwind.
  • Insider Conviction: 3 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. It is the lowest pillar, signaling weak insider-side conviction in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 7 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0 with sector sensitivity considered. A beta of 1.0 means the stock moves in line with the broad market, so it offers no defensive cushion and no obvious macro-regime advantage in the source framing.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 5 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 0.2, the Piotroski F-Score is 1/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. These forensic readings point to elevated balance-sheet stress.

Valuation tradeoffs: with a market capitalization of $31.4M and a price of 0.83, the equity is small and the financial metrics are negative, so valuation multiples that depend on earnings are not available. Investors evaluating the stock today face the question of whether the balance-sheet stress and negative cash generation are priced in, which the source data does not resolve. The RQD framework weighs these factors heavily toward caution.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$25.2M$-96.0M$-87.9MN/A$-89.5M$41.7MN/A
FY 2024$52.3M$-88.9M$-78.1MN/A$-112.2M$27.4MN/A
FY 2023$44.8M$-78.5M$-68.3MN/A$-91.4MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue declined from $52.3M in FY 2024 to $25.2M in FY 2025, while net losses widened from $-78.1M to $-87.9M. Per the market data, operating margin and net margin are both -60%, gross margin is 0%, and ROIC is -35%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 0.2 and the Piotroski F-Score is 1/9, both consistent with significant financial distress. Per the Roarable RQD rating, Debt/Equity is 0.5; the debt figures themselves are N/A in the SEC financials.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news data, the most recent items are:

  • A headline about Metagenomi's participation in the Chardan 10th Annual Healthcare Conference, rated YELLOW (market wire).
  • A Stock Titan piece framing a gene-editing panel that looks beyond first-generation CRISPR, rated YELLOW.
  • A Simply Wall St forecast and analyst-predictions piece, rated YELLOW.
  • A Yahoo Finance seasonal returns chart, rated YELLOW.
  • A Pluang item on the CEO discussing next-generation genome editing, rated YELLOW.
  • A BigGo Finance item rated GREEN (catalyst) concerning 800V DC power delivery for AI data centers in connection with Nvidia's MGX initiative. This item refers to a different entity sharing the MGX name and is not a verified catalyst for Metagenomi.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are present. The only GREEN-flagged item relates to an unrelated initiative and should be treated with caution as a risk-watch item rather than a positive catalyst for this issuer.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's debt obligations, given that debt figures are N/A in the SEC financials while Debt/Equity is reported as 0.5?
  • What is the source of FY 2025 revenue of $25.2M, and why did it decline from $52.3M in FY 2024?
  • What is the cash runway implied by $41.7M cash against FY 2025 free cash flow of $-89.5M?
  • Who are the institutional and insider holders, and what is their recent activity?
  • What drives the reported EPS as N/A, and how should per-share economics be evaluated?

MGX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc. (MGX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MGX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MGX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $0.78?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MGX 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MGX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.73 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MGX (E • RQD 24/100) a Buy at $0.83?

Welcome to the MGX (Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 24/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances). Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.68 (-18.1%)
Spot @ $0.83

Pump the brakes on MGX — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MGX, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.05 (+26.5%)
Spot @ $0.83

MGX cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MGX, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $0.83 (52-wk range $0.75 - $2.62), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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