ROARABLE
FREE $100K
My Trading Account →
▾
Trading Profile Active
Active Trader
Verified Trader
⚡ My $100K Trading Account → ★ My Saved Watchlist →
🟢 My $100K Account → Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Financials / MITT / news
RC (41) STRW (64) ACRE (37) SITC (59) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Why MITT Stock surged +3.04% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$5.77 +3.04% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.79

TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. (MITT) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $178.1M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MITT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MITT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. (NYSE: MITT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $5.77 (+3.04% 1D, market cap $178.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MITT ranks #682 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MITT compare to RC and STRW in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), MITT carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 3.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.7%. By comparison, RC (Ready Capital Corporation) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -14.3%, cap $176.8M) and STRW (Strawberry Fields REIT Inc.) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 23.5x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $179.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MITT leads on earnings multiple (3.7x) while STRW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MITT?
▼

Per MITT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001514281), TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. generated $3.66B in revenue (+26.0% YoY), $48.7M in net income, and $59.6M in free cash flow against $8.71B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.79 (+0.36%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 1.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510049
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (14)Whales (5)SEC (13)Macro (5)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4% Base Target
$10 Bull$6 Base$4 Bear
📬 FREE MITT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MITT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MITT SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.6% FCF Margin ($59.6M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (46.3) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
41
Grade D$5.48-2.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
44
Grade D$5.32+4.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
46
Grade D$5.54+4.2% Next Q
Current
49
Grade D$5.77-5.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (41) → D (49)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MITT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MITT currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.02) and Max Pain ($6.06) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.73.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MITT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MITT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 49%NO 51%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why MITT Stock surged +3.04% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. (MITT) surged +3.04% to $5.77, trading at 14% of its 52-week range ($5.2 – $9.27). Stretched risk/reward at 4x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 14% of its 52-week range ($5.2 – $9.27) with RSI-14 at 46.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6% around $5.77 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $59.6M annual free cash flow.
Live MITT Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MITT)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MITT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
MITT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -25.93%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $5.70H $5.77L $5.60C $5.77VOL 392.0K
RES: $5.79SUP: $5.04SMA50: $6.02SMA200: $7.33
$8.55$7.64$6.73$5.83$4.92RES $5.79SUP $5.04$5.772026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MITT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MITT Butterfly Map → + Track MITT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +26.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MITT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MITT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MITT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MITT)

Financials Rank #682 of 1097 ⚔️ RC vs MITT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MITT vs. RC, STRW, ACRE, SITC)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. (MITT) ranks #682 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #907 by equity capitalization ($178.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MITT leads on earnings valuation at 3.7x trailing P/E, while STRW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. STRW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with MITT at 49/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MITT ACTIVE
TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc.
D 49/100 3.7x — 8.7% +3.04% $178.1M Benchmark Subject
RC
Ready Capital Corporation
D- 41/100 — — -14.3% 0.00% $176.8M /rc-vs-mitt →
STRW
Strawberry Fields REIT Inc.
C 64/100 23.5x — 85.0% -1.50% $179.7M /strw-vs-mitt →
ACRE
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation
D- 37/100 — — -0.2% +1.79% $186.4M /acre-vs-mitt →
SITC
SITE Centers Corp.
C- 59/100 — — 53.1% -1.61% $195.7M /sitc-vs-mitt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001514281 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. (MITT) reported GAAP revenue of $3.66B (+26.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.90B , and +1411.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $48.7M, operating cash flow of $59.6M, and free cash flow of $59.6M (+6.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, MITT closed FY2025 with $8.71B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $3.66B $48.7M $59.6M $59.6M $8.71B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.90B $55.7M $55.8M $55.8M $6.91B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $242.0M $53.8M $28.1M $28.1M — —

3. MITT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MITT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. (NYSE: MITT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $5.77 (+3.04% 1D, market cap $178.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MITT ranks #682 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MITT compare to RC and STRW in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), MITT carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 3.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.7%. By comparison, RC (Ready Capital Corporation) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -14.3%, cap $176.8M) and STRW (Strawberry Fields REIT Inc.) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 23.5x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $179.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MITT leads on earnings multiple (3.7x) while STRW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MITT?

Per MITT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001514281), TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. generated $3.66B in revenue (+26.0% YoY), $48.7M in net income, and $59.6M in free cash flow against $8.71B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MITT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MITT last traded at $5.77 (+3.04% on volume of 321,498 shares), positioning the stock -4.15% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.02) and -21.28% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.33). Across its 52-week range of $5.20 to $9.27, MITT sits at the 14.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.0% ($5.42 to $6.12).

Direct Sub-Reports: MITT RQD Cockpit MITT 12M Forecast MITT Earnings & Move MITT Dividends & DRIP MITT Insiders & 13F MITT Whale Options MITT Profit Sankey MITT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 49/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MITT — TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. (MITT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 49/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $5.77 (+3.04% 1D, market capitalization $178.1M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.7%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry, per the SEC profile..2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. (MITT) reported $3.66B in annual revenue (up from $2.90B in FY2024, +26.0% YoY) and $48.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($242.0M revenue, $53.8M net income) through FY2025, MITT scaled operating cash flow to $59.6M and free cash flow to $59.6M, backed by $8.71B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 49/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $5.20 – $9.27 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 3.7x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not establish upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or named dependencies. Sector context from the profile is limited to Financials and Real Estate Investment Trusts.

  • Key Question #1: Can MITT sustain or expand its — operating margin and 8.7% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.66B and free cash flow of $59.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MITT's 3.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MITT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. (MITT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MITT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MITT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $5.77?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MITT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MITT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.44 (+15.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Trades at a 3.7 P/E TTM with ROIC of 8.7% and positive free cash flow in FY 2025 ($59.6M).

Trades at a 3.7 P/E TTM with ROIC of 8.7% and positive free cash flow in FY 2025 ($59.6M).. When you look under the hood at MITT, Fundamental Cash Engine is 14/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 8.7% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (5/20) has been quietly accumulating below $9.27. My 12M target is $6.44.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Shorting a 5/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $5.60 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.26 (-23.9%)
Spot @ $5.60

Scores 5 of 20 on whale 13F flow and 5 of 20 on macro regime fit, with a 0% FCF yield and 0% dividend yield.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on MITT: Scores 5 of 20 on whale 13F flow and 5 of 20 on macro regime fit, with a 0% FCF yield and 0% dividend yield.. At 3.7x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Real Estate Investment Trusts triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

LIVE TAPE