Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 33/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-03, Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: MLYS) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $18.18 (-14.41% 1D, market cap $1.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BULLISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), MLYS carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -28.4%. By comparison, CMPS (COMPASS Pathways Plc American Depository Shares) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.60B) and URGN (UroGen Pharma Ltd.) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.60B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MLYS leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MLYS leads on capital efficiency (-28.4% ROIC).
Per MLYS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001933414), Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$154.7M in net income, and -$142.4M in free cash flow against $661.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
While MLYS currently carries a cautious 33/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($24.55) and Max Pain ($19.09) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $50.03.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) dropped -14.41% to $18.18, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($18.11 – $47.65). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-28% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Globe and Mail report covering Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
- Explore-CKD met its primary endpoint; lorundrostat 25 mg once daily added to an SGLT2 inhibitor achieved a statistically significant reduction in systolic blood pressure at four weeks - - New hormonal and urinary prote
The Explore-CKD trial evaluated the efficacy and safety of lorundrostat, an aldosterone synthase inhibitor, added to guideline-directed background therapy in 59 participants with uncontrolled hypertension, stage 1 to 3b
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MLYS today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MLYS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) ranks #669 by composite RQD confidence (33/100, grade E) and #290 by equity capitalization ($1.61B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MLYS leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while MLYS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -28.4% ROIC and — gross margin. NBTX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 49/100 (D) compared with MLYS at 33/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLYS
ACTIVE
Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. | E | 33/100 | — | — | -28.4% | -14.41% | $1.61B | Benchmark Subject |
| CMPS COMPASS Pathways Plc American Depository Shares | D- | 40/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -5.09% | $1.60B | /cmps-vs-mlys → |
| URGN UroGen Pharma Ltd. | E | 24/100 | — | 88.7% | -35.0% | -2.27% | $1.60B | /urgn-vs-mlys → |
| NBTX Nanobiotix S.A. | D | 49/100 | — | — | — | -7.19% | $1.59B | /nbtx-vs-mlys → |
| RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. | E | 23/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -4.05% | $1.59B | /rare-vs-mlys → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$154.7M, operating cash flow of -$142.4M, and free cash flow of -$142.4M (+14.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, MLYS closed FY2025 with $661.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | -$154.7M | -$142.4M | -$142.4M | $661.8M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | -$177.8M | -$166.3M | -$166.3M | $205.9M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | -$71.9M | -$81.2M | -$81.2M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-03, Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: MLYS) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $18.18 (-14.41% 1D, market cap $1.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BULLISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), MLYS carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -28.4%. By comparison, CMPS (COMPASS Pathways Plc American Depository Shares) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.60B) and URGN (UroGen Pharma Ltd.) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.60B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MLYS leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MLYS leads on capital efficiency (-28.4% ROIC).
Per MLYS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001933414), Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$154.7M in net income, and -$142.4M in free cash flow against $661.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
MLYS last traded at $18.18 (-14.41% on volume of 3,979,628 shares), positioning the stock -25.95% below its 50-day simple moving average ($24.55) and -32.34% below its 200-day simple moving average ($26.87). Across its 52-week range of $18.11 to $47.65, MLYS sits at the 0.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($15.91 to $20.45).
Why MLYS Stock dropped -14.41% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-28% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Per the Roarable RQD rating, MLYS scores 34 out of 100 and receives a letter grade of E, with the verdict label "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are:
Implications. The upside case rests on the cash balance and on any future catalyst that changes the cash-burn trajectory. The valuation tradeoff is that negative ROIC and FCF yield leave no earnings-based anchor for valuation, so price relies on expectations rather than current cash generation. The rating's overall framing is cautionary: a prospective investor should weigh the consistent negative cash flow and insider-flow weakness against any pipeline or market enthusiasm. This is educational analysis, not personalized advice.
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $0.0M | $-170.6M | $-154.7M | N/A | $-142.4M | $172.9M | N/A |
| FY 2024 | $0.0M | $-192.4M | $-177.8M | N/A | $-166.3M | $114.1M | N/A |
| FY 2023 | $0.0M | $-84.7M | $-71.9M | N/A | $-81.2M | N/A | N/A |
Per the SEC financials, operating and net losses are reported in all three periods, and FY 2025 losses are narrower than FY 2024. Per the market data, gross, operating, and net margins are each 0%, and ROIC is -28.4%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9, with Debt/Equity of 0.5. Cash rose from $114.1M in FY 2024 to $172.9M in FY 2025 per the SEC financials, but debt values are not reported.
Per the recent news and catalysts section, six items are listed, all tagged as market wire with yellow signal lights:
Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the proprietary signal is a LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND flagged BULLISH with severity 90 and a Macro Tailwind Score of 91/100. The signal reports a 2.93x True Net Liquidity beta with r = -0.18, with the Net Liquidity Index at $5,745.73B (-0.64% 4-week RoC) and High-Yield OAS at +2 bps. The signal's correlation is weak (r = -0.18), so it should be weighed cautiously against the RQD rating's bearish reading.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Globe and Mail report covering Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Welcome to the MLYS (Mineralys Therapeutics Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 34/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MLYS, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MLYS, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $21.24 (52-wk range $18.11 - $47.65), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.
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