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Stock Ratings / Health Care / MNOV / dividends
ACRV (33) CING (34) LFVN (67) MAIA (32) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Medicinova Inc (MNOV) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$1.44 +2.86% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.44

Medicinova Inc (MNOV) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 21/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E β€’ RED ALERT Cap $70.9M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MNOV Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MNOV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Medicinova Inc (NASDAQ: MNOV) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 21/100 at a spot price of $1.44 (+2.86% 1D, market cap $70.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, MNOV ranks #971 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MNOV compare to ACRV and CING in the Health Care sector?
β–Ό

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), MNOV carries a Roarable E (21/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.7x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ACRV (Acrivon Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $69.0M) and CING (Cingulate Inc.) posts a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $73.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MNOV leads on earnings multiple (5.7x) while LFVN leads on capital efficiency (29.2% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MNOV?
β–Ό

Per MNOV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001226616), Medicinova Inc generated $409.7K in revenue (-98.8% YoY), $12.0M in net income, and -$9.8M in free cash flow against $45.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.44 (+0.32%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (21/100 Β· E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ E
025507510021
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E Β· Rk E
Cash (3)Whales (3)SEC (7)Macro (5)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-16.7% Base Target
$4 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE MNOV RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MNOV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±9.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (21/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY MNOV SCORES 21/100 (E) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+7/20 pts (33% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 3/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+5/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime Γ— Technicals: 8% of 52W Range β€’ RSI-14 at 41.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
29
Grade E$1.50-9.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
26
Grade E$1.36+3.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
24
Grade E$1.41+2.1% Next Q
Current
21
Grade E$1.44-11.6% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (29) β†’ E (21)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MNOV Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While MNOV currently carries a cautious 21/100 (E) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.79) and Max Pain ($1.51) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.09.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MNOVβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œMNOV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 21%NO 79%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
0.6% Total Yield
0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 0.6% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
74/100 β€’ REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
0% (100% Reinvested)
Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (5.5% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $17,081

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $102/yr
$10.6K
Yr 1
$11.1K
Yr 2
$11.7K
Yr 3
$12.4K
Yr 4
$13.1K
Yr 5
$13.8K
Yr 6
$14.5K
Yr 7
$15.3K
Yr 8
$16.2K
Yr 9
$17.1K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MNOV)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of MNOV's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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MNOV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.13%πŸ›‘οΈ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-04O $1.40H $1.44L $1.40C $1.44VOL 47.9K
RES: $4.91SUP: $1.38SMA50: $1.79SMA200: $1.51
$4.09$3.31$2.53$1.76$0.98RES $4.91SUP $1.38$1.442026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-182026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MNOV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ MNOV Butterfly Map β†’ + Track MNOV β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-11.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -98.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MNOV today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MNOV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MNOV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MNOV)

Health Care Rank #971 of 1015 βš”οΈ ACRV vs MNOV Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (MNOV vs. ACRV, CING, LFVN, MAIA)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Medicinova Inc (MNOV) ranks #971 by composite RQD confidence (21/100, grade E) and #693 by equity capitalization ($70.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MNOV leads on earnings valuation at 5.7x trailing P/E, while LFVN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 29.2% ROIC and 80.4% gross margin. LFVN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with MNOV at 21/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MNOV ACTIVE
Medicinova Inc
E 21/100 5.7x β€” -35.0% +2.86% $70.9M Benchmark Subject
ACRV
Acrivon Therapeutics Inc.
E 33/100 β€” β€” -35.0% -3.01% $69.0M /acrv-vs-mnov β†’
CING
Cingulate Inc.
E 34/100 β€” β€” -35.0% +1.00% $73.1M /cing-vs-mnov β†’
LFVN
Lifevantage Corporation (Delaware)
C+ 67/100 7.5x 80.4% 29.2% -0.17% $73.9M /lfvn-vs-mnov β†’
MAIA
MAIA Biotechnology Inc.
E 32/100 β€” β€” -35.0% 0.00% $67.9M /maia-vs-mnov β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001226616 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Medicinova Inc (MNOV) reported GAAP revenue of $409.7K (-98.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $35.5M , and -59.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $12.0M, operating cash flow of -$9.8M, and free cash flow of -$9.8M (+7.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, MNOV closed FY2025 with $45.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $409.7K $12.0M -$9.8M -$9.8M $45.6M β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $35.5M $11.1M -$10.6M -$10.6M $55.9M β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.0M $8.6M -$7.4M -$7.4M β€” β€”

3. MNOV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MNOV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Medicinova Inc (NASDAQ: MNOV) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 21/100 at a spot price of $1.44 (+2.86% 1D, market cap $70.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, MNOV ranks #971 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MNOV compare to ACRV and CING in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), MNOV carries a Roarable E (21/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.7x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ACRV (Acrivon Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $69.0M) and CING (Cingulate Inc.) posts a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $73.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MNOV leads on earnings multiple (5.7x) while LFVN leads on capital efficiency (29.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MNOV?

Per MNOV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001226616), Medicinova Inc generated $409.7K in revenue (-98.8% YoY), $12.0M in net income, and -$9.8M in free cash flow against $45.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MNOV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MNOV last traded at $1.44 (+2.86% on volume of 47,872 shares), positioning the stock -19.55% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.79) and -4.64% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.51). Across its 52-week range of $1.22 to $3.90, MNOV sits at the 8.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±9.5% ($1.30 to $1.58).

Direct Sub-Reports: MNOV RQD Cockpit MNOV 12M Forecast MNOV Earnings & Move MNOV Dividends & DRIP MNOV Insiders & 13F MNOV Whale Options MNOV Profit Sankey MNOV News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 21/100 (E) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MNOV β€” Medicinova Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Medicinova Inc (MNOV) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 21/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $1.44 (+2.86% 1D, market capitalization $70.9M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -14.24%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (7/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Medicinova Inc (MNOV) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry..1B. β€” regarding specific products, customers, or revenue model beyond the sector and industry classification.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Medicinova Inc (MNOV) reported $409.7K in annual revenue (up from $35.5M in FY2024, -98.8% YoY) and $12.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.0M revenue, $8.6M net income) through FY2025, MNOV scaled operating cash flow to -$9.8M and free cash flow to -$9.8M, backed by $45.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (E β€’ RQD 21/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -14.24% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.22 – $3.90 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 5.7x trailing P/E against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

β€” The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports supply_chain as NONE with an empty list of butterfly links, so no upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or 2nd-order bottlenecks are identified in the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can MNOV sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $409.7K and free cash flow of -$9.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MNOV's 5.3x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MNOV Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Medicinova Inc (MNOV) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to MNOV Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MNOV Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $1.44?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MNOV 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MNOV:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Institutional Buy-Side πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.61 (+15.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

The stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 5.7 with a 52-week low of $1.22, with the price at $1.4 and a Vanguard passive stake reported.

The stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 5.7 with a 52-week low of $1.22, with the price at $1.4 and a Vanguard passive stake reported.. When you look under the hood at MNOV, Fundamental Cash Engine is 1/20 with 0.0% gross margins and -35.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (3/20) has been quietly accumulating below $3.90. My 12M target is $1.61.

CapAlloc_Nerd πŸ‚ BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 5.7x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.09 (-22.1%)
Spot @ $1.40

ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of -14.24%, Altman Z of 0.2, and a trial that missed its primary endpoints signal weak cash generation and dist

Careful chasing MNOV at $1.40. ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of -14.24%, Altman Z of 0.2, and a trial that missed its primary endpoints signal weak cash generation and distress risk.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is -60.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $1.09 on multiple compression.

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