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VAC (38) CIGI (59) CURB (58) CWK (60) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Millrose Properties Inc. (MRP) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$26.81 +4.64% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $26.98

Millrose Properties Inc. (MRP) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $4.45B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MRP Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MRP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Millrose Properties Inc. (NYSE: MRP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $26.81 (+4.64% 1D, market cap $4.45B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MRP ranks #236 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MRP compare to VAC and CIGI in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), MRP carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.4x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 5.3%. By comparison, VAC (Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -15.5%, cap $4.04B) and CIGI (Colliers International Group Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 22.1%, cap $5.33B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRP leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while CIGI leads on capital efficiency (22.1% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MRP?
β–Ό

Per MRP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002017206), Millrose Properties Inc. generated $600.5M in revenue (-12.9% YoY), $379.9M in net income, and $3.65B in free cash flow against $9.26B in total assets and $1.53B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $26.98 (+0.65%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) β€’ 607.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 55.6% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C
025507510065
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C+ Β· Rk C-
Cash (14)Whales (10)SEC (15)Macro (9)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target
$34 Bull$28 Base$22 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE MRP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MRP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±8.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY MRP SCORES 65/100 (C) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 9/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (61.7) create a -11 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
57
Grade C$22.22+7.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
60
Grade C$23.97+8.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
62
Grade C+$26.11+2.7% Next Q
Current
65
Grade C$26.81+1.3% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C (57) β†’ C (65)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MRP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, MRP faces multiple-compression risk if 11.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($26.40) or 200D SMA ($28.63) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($27.65) toward Bear Floor ($21.57).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MRPβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œMRP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
8.69% Total Yield
6.89% Cash ($1.85/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
88/100 β€’ FORTRESS PAYOUT
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
20.4% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (14.7% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $39,413

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $3,425/yr
$11.5K
Yr 1
$13.2K
Yr 2
$15.1K
Yr 3
$17.3K
Yr 4
$19.9K
Yr 5
$22.8K
Yr 6
$26.1K
Yr 7
$30.0K
Yr 8
$34.4K
Yr 9
$39.4K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Cash-Flow & Quality Compounder Desk

Cash-Fortress Compounders: Auditing Free Cash Flow & Yield Safety in MRP & A-Rated Leaders

  • βœ“12-month Bull/Base/Bear fair-value walkthrough on MRP and its top sector peer
  • βœ“Top Roarable A-Rated cash compounders with verified executive & 13F accumulation
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MRP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.90%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-04O $25.62H $26.81L $25.62C $26.81VOL 2.60M
RES: $32.99SUP: $19.38SMA50: $26.40SMA200: $28.63
$32.95$29.73$26.51$23.29$20.07RES $32.99SUP $19.38$26.812026-05-052026-06-222026-08-062026-09-222026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MRP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ MRP Butterfly Map β†’ + Track MRP β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
1.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -12.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MRP today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MRP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MRP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MRP)

Financials Rank #236 of 1097 βš”οΈ VAC vs MRP Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MRP vs. VAC, CIGI, CURB, CWK)

Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Millrose Properties Inc. (MRP) ranks #236 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #296 by equity capitalization ($4.45B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MRP leads on earnings valuation at 11.4x trailing P/E, while CIGI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.1% ROIC and β€” gross margin. MRP currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MRP ACTIVE
Millrose Properties Inc.
C 65/100 11.4x β€” 5.3% +4.64% $4.45B Benchmark Subject
VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
D- 38/100 β€” β€” -15.5% +1.74% $4.04B /vac-vs-mrp β†’
CIGI
Colliers International Group Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares
C- 59/100 β€” β€” 22.1% +7.97% $5.33B /cigi-vs-mrp β†’
CURB
Curbline Properties Corp.
D+ 58/100 87.5x β€” 2.1% +1.44% $3.51B /curb-vs-mrp β†’
CWK
Cushman & Wakefield Ltd.
C- 60/100 34.9x β€” 9.4% +7.74% $3.36B /cwk-vs-mrp β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0002017206 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Millrose Properties Inc. (MRP) reported GAAP revenue of $600.5M (-12.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $689.4M , and +2.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $379.9M, operating cash flow of $3.67B, and free cash flow of $3.65B (+497.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, MRP closed FY2025 with $9.26B in total assets against $1.53B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $600.5M $379.9M $3.67B $3.65B $9.26B $1.53B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $689.4M -$246.2M -$917.2M -$917.2M $5.47B $138.1M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $587.4M -$209.8M -$865.1M -$865.1M $2.38B $558.0M

3. MRP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MRP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Millrose Properties Inc. (NYSE: MRP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $26.81 (+4.64% 1D, market cap $4.45B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MRP ranks #236 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MRP compare to VAC and CIGI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), MRP carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.4x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 5.3%. By comparison, VAC (Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -15.5%, cap $4.04B) and CIGI (Colliers International Group Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 22.1%, cap $5.33B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRP leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while CIGI leads on capital efficiency (22.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MRP?

Per MRP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002017206), Millrose Properties Inc. generated $600.5M in revenue (-12.9% YoY), $379.9M in net income, and $3.65B in free cash flow against $9.26B in total assets and $1.53B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MRP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MRP last traded at $26.81 (+4.64% on volume of 2,598,350 shares), positioning the stock +1.55% above its 50-day simple moving average ($26.40) and -6.36% below its 200-day simple moving average ($28.63). Across its 52-week range of $21.07 to $32.60, MRP sits at the 49.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±8.4% ($24.56 to $29.06).

Direct Sub-Reports: MRP RQD Cockpit MRP 12M Forecast MRP Earnings & Move MRP Dividends & DRIP MRP Insiders & 13F MRP Whale Options MRP Profit Sankey MRP News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 65/100 (C) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MRP β€” Millrose Properties Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Millrose Properties Inc. (MRP) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 65/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $26.81 (+4.64% 1D, market capitalization $4.45B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.3%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of 75.0%, and free cash flow yield of 22.00%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 0.99x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Millrose Properties Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and the Real Estate industry. It operates in Real Estate with a market capitalization of $4.3B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Millrose Properties Inc. (MRP) reported $600.5M in annual revenue (up from $689.4M in FY2024, -12.9% YoY) and $379.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($587.4M revenue, -$209.8M net income) through FY2025, MRP scaled operating cash flow to $3.67B and free cash flow to $3.65B, backed by $9.26B in total assets against $1.53B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (C β€’ RQD 65/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $21.07 – $32.60 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 11.4x trailing P/E and 11.3x EV/EBITDA against 75.0% operating margins and a 0.99x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Real Estate (Financials), MRP carries a macro regime beta of 0.99 and gross margin of β€”.

  • Key Question #1: Can MRP sustain or expand its 75.0% operating margin and 5.3% ROIC against Real Estate peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $600.5M and free cash flow of $3.65B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.53B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MRP's 10.6x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.99x)?

MRP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Millrose Properties Inc. (MRP) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to MRP Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MRP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $26.81?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MRP 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MRP:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Cross-Asset Macro Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $30.49 (+19.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Insider conviction (17/20) and a 6.89% dividend yield alongside a 22% FCF yield point to strong cash generation and insider confidence.

Don't sleep on MRP's setup in Financials. Insider conviction (17/20) and a 6.89% dividend yield alongside a 22% FCF yield point to strong cash generation and insider confidence.. Beta of 0.99 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (65/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator πŸ‚ BULL

@MacroHawk_NYC Agree on the RQD 65/100 quality, though with 0.99 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $25.62 and keeping dry powder in case we test $23.83.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $20.24 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $25.62

A red-flagged Citizens downgrade on a business model shift, a pending securities class action deadline, and a thin 5.3% ROIC temper the

Fading this rally in MRP at $25.62. A red-flagged Citizens downgrade on a business model shift, a pending securities class action deadline, and a thin 5.3% ROIC temper the outlook.. With a beta of 0.99 and the stock sitting at $25.62 (52-wk range $21.07–$32.60), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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