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Midland States Bancorp Inc. (MSBI) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$33.34 +1.62% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.37

Midland States Bancorp Inc. (MSBI) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 54/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $682.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MSBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Midland States Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: MSBI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $33.34 (+1.62% 1D, market cap $682.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MSBI ranks #554 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MSBI compare to RRBI and CBNK in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), MSBI carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -22.0%. By comparison, RRBI (Red River Bancshares Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 15.7x, ROIC 11.7%, cap $680.2M) and CBNK (Capital Bancorp Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 14.2%, cap $679.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCAL leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while CBNK leads on capital efficiency (14.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MSBI?
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Per MSBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001466026), Midland States Bancorp Inc. generated $2.74B in revenue (-13.2% YoY), -$124.3M in net income, and $120.3M in free cash flow against $6.51B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.37 (+0.10%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 4.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 54/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510054
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (10)Whales (11)SEC (10)Macro (13)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.8% Base Target
$39 Bull$33 Base$26 Bear
📬 FREE MSBI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MSBI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (54/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MSBI SCORES 54/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 91% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 48.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (20% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.6% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 10 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
46
Grade D$32.16+1.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
49
Grade D$32.56+5.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
51
Grade C-$34.24-2.6% Next Q
Current
54
Grade D+$33.34-0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (46) → D+ (54)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MSBI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MSBI currently carries a cautious 54/100 (D+) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (10/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($32.98) and Max Pain ($35.01) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $38.63.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MSBI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MSBI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 54%NO 46%Trade / Inspect Odds →
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How MSBI Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$120.3M (4.4% FCF Margin)
Revenue$2.74BGross Profit $1.42B (52%)Cost of Sales $1.31BOp Profit $0 (0%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $1.42BNet Profit$0 (0%)Tax/Other $0

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $582.8M
FY24
Rev $3.15B
FY25
Rev $2.74B
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$2.74B52%0%-$124.3M$120.3M-22%
FY 2024$3.15B52%0%$38.0M$169.6M-22%
FY 2023$582.8M39.5%0%$61.2M$153.4M-22%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MSBI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MSBI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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MSBI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +28.38%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $33.83H $33.83L $32.81C $33.34VOL 132.2K
RES: $35.09SUP: $30.91SMA50: $32.98SMA200: $28.34
$36.16$31.75$27.34$22.93$18.52RES $35.09SUP $30.91$33.342026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MSBI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MSBI Butterfly Map → + Track MSBI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -13.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MSBI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MSBI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MSBI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MSBI)

Financials Rank #554 of 1097 ⚔️ RRBI vs MSBI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MSBI vs. RRBI, CBNK, BHB, BCAL)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Midland States Bancorp Inc. (MSBI) ranks #554 by composite RQD confidence (54/100, grade D+) and #629 by equity capitalization ($682.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCAL leads on earnings valuation at 10.9x trailing P/E, while CBNK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.2% ROIC and — gross margin. CBNK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with MSBI at 54/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MSBI ACTIVE
Midland States Bancorp Inc.
D+ 54/100 — — -22.0% +1.62% $682.5M Benchmark Subject
RRBI
Red River Bancshares Inc.
B- 70/100 15.7x — 11.7% +4.32% $680.2M /rrbi-vs-msbi →
CBNK
Capital Bancorp Inc.
B 74/100 12.0x — 14.2% +3.33% $679.6M /cbnk-vs-msbi →
BHB
Bar Harbor Bankshares Inc.
C 65/100 18.6x — 6.9% +2.45% $678.0M /bhb-vs-msbi →
BCAL
California BanCorp
C 62/100 10.9x — 10.9% +1.86% $690.6M /bcal-vs-msbi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001466026 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Midland States Bancorp Inc. (MSBI) reported GAAP revenue of $2.74B (-13.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.15B , and +369.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$124.3M, operating cash flow of $125.7M, and free cash flow of $120.3M (-29.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, MSBI closed FY2025 with $6.51B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.74B -$124.3M $125.7M $120.3M $6.51B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.15B $38.0M $176.5M $169.6M $7.51B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $582.8M $61.2M $153.4M $153.4M — —

3. MSBI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MSBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Midland States Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: MSBI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $33.34 (+1.62% 1D, market cap $682.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MSBI ranks #554 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MSBI compare to RRBI and CBNK in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), MSBI carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -22.0%. By comparison, RRBI (Red River Bancshares Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 15.7x, ROIC 11.7%, cap $680.2M) and CBNK (Capital Bancorp Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 14.2%, cap $679.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCAL leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while CBNK leads on capital efficiency (14.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MSBI?

Per MSBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001466026), Midland States Bancorp Inc. generated $2.74B in revenue (-13.2% YoY), -$124.3M in net income, and $120.3M in free cash flow against $6.51B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MSBI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MSBI last traded at $33.34 (+1.62% on volume of 109,851 shares), positioning the stock +1.09% above its 50-day simple moving average ($32.98) and +17.64% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.34). Across its 52-week range of $14.52 to $35.10, MSBI sits at the 91.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.6% ($31.47 to $35.21).

Direct Sub-Reports: MSBI RQD Cockpit MSBI 12M Forecast MSBI Earnings & Move MSBI Dividends & DRIP MSBI Insiders & 13F MSBI Whale Options MSBI Profit Sankey MSBI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 54/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MSBI — Midland States Bancorp Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Midland States Bancorp Inc. (MSBI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 54/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $33.34 (+1.62% 1D, market capitalization $682.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -22.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 17.14%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (11/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Midland States Bancorp Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed company in the Financials sector, Major Banks industry. The profile identifies the company as operating in Major Banks with a market capitalization of $0.7B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Midland States Bancorp Inc. (MSBI) reported $2.74B in annual revenue (up from $3.15B in FY2024, -13.2% YoY) and -$124.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($582.8M revenue, $61.2M net income) through FY2025, MSBI scaled operating cash flow to $125.7M and free cash flow to $120.3M, backed by $6.51B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 54/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 17.14% and institutional whale pillar of 11/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $14.52 – $35.10 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies: — Sector correlations beyond the Financials / Major Banks classification: — Second-order bottlenecks: — Investors should note that the absence of graph linkages means this dossier cannot map ripple effects from credit, funding, or rate shifts to the company's operations; those relationships would need separate verification.

  • Key Question #1: Can MSBI sustain or expand its — operating margin and -22.0% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.74B and free cash flow of $120.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MSBI's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MSBI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Midland States Bancorp Inc. (MSBI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MSBI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MSBI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $33.34?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MSBI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MSBI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $41.67 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The stock offers a 17.14% FCF yield and 3.94% dividend yield, with a Stephens price target raise citing credit quality.

The stock offers a 17.14% FCF yield and 3.94% dividend yield, with a Stephens price target raise citing credit quality.. When you look under the hood at MSBI, Fundamental Cash Engine is 10/20 with 0.0% gross margins and -22.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (11/20) has been quietly accumulating below $35.10. My 12M target is $41.67.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@RedlineAuditor Shorting a 11/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $32.81 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $24.61 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $32.81

ROIC is -22% and FY 2025 net income fell to -$124.3M, with a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 signaling weak fundamentals.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on MSBI: ROIC is -22% and FY 2025 net income fell to -$124.3M, with a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 signaling weak fundamentals.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Major Banks triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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