How profitable is Match Group Inc. (MTCH)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), MTCH converted $3.5B of revenue into a 72.8% gross margin, 25% operating margin, and $1.0B in free cash flow (29.4% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Technology / MTCH / financials

SNAP (41) DOCN (54) PINS (67) BZ (79) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Match Group Inc. (MTCH) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$42.07 +1.59% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $42.29

Match Group Inc. (MTCH) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 76/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (72.8% gross margin, 30% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $9.51B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MTCH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Match Group Inc. (NASDAQ: MTCH) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $42.07 (+1.59% 1D, market cap $9.51B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, MTCH ranks #32 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MTCH compare to SNAP and DOCN in the Technology sector?

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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Programming Data Processing), MTCH carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.4x, gross margin of 72.8%, and ROIC of 30.4%. By comparison, SNAP (Snap Inc.) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -8.9%, cap $9.03B) and DOCN (DigitalOcean Holdings Inc.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 45.3x, ROIC 13.2%, cap $10.54B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTCH leads on earnings multiple (14.4x) while MTCH leads on capital efficiency (30.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTCH?

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Per MTCH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000891103), Match Group Inc. generated $3.49B in revenue (+0.2% YoY), $0 in net income, and $1.02B in free cash flow against $4.46B in total assets and $3.55B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (72.8% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $42.29 (+0.53%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 29.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 76/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 11% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+8.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MTCH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (76/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MTCH SCORES 76/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 29.4% FCF Margin ($1.02B FCF) & 72.8% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade A$42.40+9.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade A-$46.30-9.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade A-$42.06+0% Next Q

Current

Grade B+$42.07+7.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: A (84) → B+ (76)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MTCH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 76/100 (B+) score, MTCH faces multiple-compression risk if 14.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 70.3% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($42.29) or 200D SMA ($36.72) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($45.48) toward Bear Floor ($34.50).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MTCH• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MTCH Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 76%NO 24%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How MTCH Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$1.02B (29.4% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $3.36B

FY24

Rev $3.48B

FY25

Rev $3.49B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$3.49B	72.8%	25%	$0	$1.02B	30.4%
FY 2024	$3.48B	71.5%	23.7%	$0	$882.1M	23.1%
FY 2023	$3.36B	72.8%	27.3%	$0	$745.4M	22.3%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MTCH)

✓Walkthrough of MTCH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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MTCH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +10.22%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-03O $42.65H $42.65L $41.41C $42.07VOL 5.68M

RES: $47.35SUP: $41.39SMA50: $42.29SMA200: $36.72

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MTCH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MTCH Butterfly Map → + Track MTCH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

6.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +0.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MTCH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MTCH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MTCH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MTCH)

Technology Rank #32 of 715 ⚔️ SNAP vs MTCH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (MTCH vs. SNAP, DOCN, PINS, BZ)

Industry: Computer Software: Programming Data Processing (72 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Match Group Inc. (MTCH) ranks #32 by composite RQD confidence (76/100, grade B+) and #151 by equity capitalization ($9.51B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MTCH leads on earnings valuation at 14.4x trailing P/E, while MTCH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.4% ROIC and 72.8% gross margin. BZ currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 79/100 (B+) compared with MTCH at 76/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MTCH ACTIVE Match Group Inc.	B+	76/100	14.4x	72.8%	30.4%	+1.59%	$9.51B	Benchmark Subject
SNAP Snap Inc.	D-	41/100	—	55.0%	-8.9%	+2.06%	$9.03B	/snap-vs-mtch →
DOCN DigitalOcean Holdings Inc.	D+	54/100	45.3x	59.9%	13.2%	+0.16%	$10.54B	/docn-vs-mtch →
PINS Pinterest Inc.	C+	67/100	27.1x	80.1%	6.2%	+4.91%	$11.10B	/pins-vs-mtch →
BZ KANZHUN LIMITED American Depository Shares	B+	79/100	19.6x	85.1%	10.9%	+3.14%	$7.80B	/bz-vs-mtch →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000891103 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Match Group Inc. (MTCH) reported GAAP revenue of $3.49B (+0.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.48B , and +3.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $1.08B, and free cash flow of $1.02B (+16.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, MTCH closed FY2025 with $4.46B in total assets against $3.55B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.41, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$3.49B	$0	$1.08B	$1.02B	$4.46B	$3.55B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$3.48B	$0	$932.7M	$882.1M	$4.47B	$3.85B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$3.36B	$0	$896.8M	$745.4M	$5.38B	$1.26B

3. MTCH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MTCH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MTCH compare to SNAP and DOCN in the Technology sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTCH?

Where is MTCH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MTCH last traded at $42.07 (+1.59% on volume of 4,693,021 shares), positioning the stock -0.52% below its 50-day simple moving average ($42.29) and +14.57% above its 200-day simple moving average ($36.72). Across its 52-week range of $28.81 to $46.67, MTCH sits at the 74.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.3% ($39.42 to $44.72).

Direct Sub-Reports: MTCH RQD Cockpit MTCH 12M Forecast MTCH Earnings & Move MTCH Dividends & DRIP MTCH Insiders & 13F MTCH Whale Options MTCH Profit Sankey MTCH News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 76/100 (B+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MTCH — Match Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Match Group Inc. (MTCH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 76/100, corresponding to a B+ letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $42.07 (+1.59% 1D, market capitalization $9.51B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (18/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 30.4%, gross margin of 72.8%, operating margin of 25.0%, and free cash flow yield of 10.46%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (11/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (15/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.34x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.41, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.85x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Match Group Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector, within the Computer Software: Programming Data Processing industry. The company's market capitalization is $9.8B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Match Group Inc. (MTCH) reported $3.49B in annual revenue (up from $3.48B in FY2024, +0.2% YoY) and $0 in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($3.36B revenue, $0 net income) through FY2025, MTCH scaled operating cash flow to $1.08B and free cash flow to $1.02B, backed by $4.46B in total assets against $3.55B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (B+ • RQD 76/100): Strong cash generator (72.8% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 18/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $28.81 – $46.67 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 14.4x trailing P/E and 13.4x EV/EBITDA against 25.0% operating margins and a 1.34x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Computer Software: Programming Data Processing (Technology), MTCH carries a macro regime beta of 1.34 and gross margin of 72.8%.

Key Question #1: Can MTCH sustain or expand its 25.0% operating margin and 30.4% ROIC against Computer Software: Programming Data Processing peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.49B and free cash flow of $1.02B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $3.55B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is MTCH's 13.4x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.34x)?

MTCH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Match Group Inc. (MTCH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MTCH Debate Forum (3) ↓

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Match Group (MTCH) Stock Looks Cheap Despite Its 72% Five Year Fall

Yahoo Finance report covering Match Group Inc. (MTCH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Match Group shares jump as Evercore ISI upgrades stock on Tinder recovery

Yahoo Finance report covering Match Group Inc. (MTCH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST 24/7 Wall St. • 1d ago

Bumble Soars 56% as Ithaca Holdings Agrees to Take It Private at $6.05 a Share; Match Group Advances 2%

24/7 Wall St. report covering Match Group Inc. (MTCH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Tinder sparks renewed interest in Match as Evercore upgrades to Outperform (MTCH:NASDAQ)

Seeking Alpha report covering Match Group Inc. (MTCH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST GuruFocus • 1d ago

Match Group Inc (MTCH) Shares Surge 4.1% -- What GF Score of 85 Tells Investors

GuruFocus report covering Match Group Inc. (MTCH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Match Group (NASDAQ:MTCH) Stock Bumped Down to Hold by Zacks Research

MarketBeat report covering Match Group Inc. (MTCH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST TradingView • 1d ago

BMBL Stock Soars Over 50% On $1B Take-Private Talks; MTCH Edges Higher As Well

TradingView report covering Match Group Inc. (MTCH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Match Group (MTCH) Stock Climbed, What Is Behind The Fresh Attention?

Simply Wall St report covering Match Group Inc. (MTCH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MTCH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $42.07?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MTCH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $53.42 (+29.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Strong cash economics with 30.4% ROIC and a 10.46% FCF yield, alongside a 13.4 forward P/E and high insider conviction score.

The street is overcomplicating Match Group Inc. (MTCH). Strong cash economics with 30.4% ROIC and a 10.46% FCF yield, alongside a 13.4 forward P/E and high insider conviction score.. With an RQD score of 76/100 (B+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 14/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $44.72.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Fair point on 14.4x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Computer Software: Programming Data Processing. If gross margin (72.8%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $32.30 (-22.0%)

Spot @ $41.41

Beta of 1.34 and a 72% five-year decline amplify downside exposure, with debt of $3.55B against cash of $1.03B.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short MTCH above $41.41. Beta of 1.34 and a 72% five-year decline amplify downside exposure, with debt of $3.55B against cash of $1.03B.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (18/20) and FCF yield (10.46%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $46.67.