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MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$1.12 -5.88% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.11

MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 31/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $7.4M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MTVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, MetaVia Inc. (NASDAQ: MTVA) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $1.12 (-5.88% 1D, market cap $7.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, MTVA ranks #779 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MTVA compare to LEXX and CNSP in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), MTVA carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, LEXX (Lexaria Bioscience Corp.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $7.4M) and CNSP (CNS Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $7.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTVA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MTVA leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTVA?
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Per MTVA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001638287), MetaVia Inc. generated $38.4M in revenue (-52.4% YoY), -$13.0M in net income, and -$15.7M in free cash flow against $11.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.11 (-1.25%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (31/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510031
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
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SEC
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Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (4)Whales (3)SEC (10)Macro (9)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.5% Base Target
$16 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE MTVA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MTVA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (31/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MTVA SCORES 31/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (32% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+9/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 35 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
39
Grade E$1.43-9.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
36
Grade E$1.29-10.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
34
Grade E$1.15-2.6% Next Q
Current
31
Grade E$1.12-9.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (39) → E (31)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MTVA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MTVA currently carries a cautious 31/100 (E) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.51) and Max Pain ($1.18) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.59.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MTVA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MTVA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 31%NO 69%Trade / Inspect Odds →
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

MTVA Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (MTVA)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on MTVA. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MTVA)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MTVA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MTVA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.81%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $1.19H $1.19L $1.12C $1.12VOL 74.1K
RES: $1.18SUP: $1.09SMA50: $1.51SMA200: $1.66
$6.57$5.05$3.53$2.02$0.50RES $1.18SUP $1.09$1.122026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MTVA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MTVA Butterfly Map → + Track MTVA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -52.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MTVA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MTVA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MTVA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MTVA)

Health Care Rank #779 of 1015 ⚔️ LEXX vs MTVA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (MTVA vs. LEXX, CNSP, UPC, IMRN)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) ranks #779 by composite RQD confidence (31/100, grade E) and #914 by equity capitalization ($7.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MTVA leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while MTVA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. IMRN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 47/100 (D) compared with MTVA at 31/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MTVA ACTIVE
MetaVia Inc.
E 31/100 — — -35.0% -5.88% $7.4M Benchmark Subject
LEXX
Lexaria Bioscience Corp.
E 34/100 — 96.0% -35.0% -7.43% $7.4M /lexx-vs-mtva →
CNSP
CNS Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D- 43/100 — — -35.0% +4.82% $7.3M /cnsp-vs-mtva →
UPC
Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Class A)
E 33/100 — 35.3% — -3.25% $7.5M /upc-vs-mtva →
IMRN
Immuron Limited
D 47/100 — — — -4.60% $7.1M /imrn-vs-mtva →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001638287 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) reported GAAP revenue of $38.4M (-52.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $80.7M , and -13.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$13.0M, operating cash flow of -$15.7M, and free cash flow of -$15.7M (+36.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, MTVA closed FY2025 with $11.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $38.4M -$13.0M -$15.7M -$15.7M $11.1M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $80.7M -$27.6M -$24.7M -$24.7M $16.3M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $44.5M -$12.5M -$10.8M -$10.8M — —

3. MTVA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MTVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, MetaVia Inc. (NASDAQ: MTVA) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $1.12 (-5.88% 1D, market cap $7.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, MTVA ranks #779 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MTVA compare to LEXX and CNSP in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), MTVA carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, LEXX (Lexaria Bioscience Corp.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $7.4M) and CNSP (CNS Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $7.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTVA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MTVA leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTVA?

Per MTVA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001638287), MetaVia Inc. generated $38.4M in revenue (-52.4% YoY), -$13.0M in net income, and -$15.7M in free cash flow against $11.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MTVA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MTVA last traded at $1.12 (-5.88% on volume of 74,063 shares), positioning the stock -25.83% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.51) and -32.53% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.66). Across its 52-week range of $0.97 to $14.85, MTVA sits at the 1.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $1.26).

Direct Sub-Reports: MTVA RQD Cockpit MTVA 12M Forecast MTVA Earnings & Move MTVA Dividends & DRIP MTVA Insiders & 13F MTVA Whale Options MTVA Profit Sankey MTVA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 31/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MTVA — MetaVia Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 31/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $1.12 (-5.88% 1D, market capitalization $7.4M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

MetaVia Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry.. Reported revenue for FY 2025 is —. — for further details on how the company generates income.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) reported $38.4M in annual revenue (up from $80.7M in FY2024, -52.4% YoY) and -$13.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($44.5M revenue, -$12.5M net income) through FY2025, MTVA scaled operating cash flow to -$15.7M and free cash flow to -$15.7M, backed by $11.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 31/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.97 – $14.85 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, butterfly links, or proprietary signals are mapped for MTVA. Sector and industry classification is Health Care / Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Investors should watch for second-order effects tied to the DA-1726 clinical program and the newly appointed Chief Medical Officer, since clinical data outcomes could ripple into financing needs given cash declined to $10.3M in FY 2025 against FCF of -$15.7M.

  • Key Question #1: Can MTVA sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $38.4M and free cash flow of -$15.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MTVA's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MTVA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MTVA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MTVA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.12?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MTVA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MTVA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.47 (+31.2%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Balance sheet pillar scores 10 of 20 with Altman Z of 2.5 and Debt/Equity of 0.5, and cash of $10.3M remains on hand.

Don't sleep on MTVA's setup in Health Care. Balance sheet pillar scores 10 of 20 with Altman Z of 2.5 and Debt/Equity of 0.5, and cash of $10.3M remains on hand.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (31/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — MTVA's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.95 (-15.2%)
Spot @ $1.12

ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of 0% against zero revenue and FY 2025 net loss of -$13.0M produce an RQD of 31 and a Strong Sell verdict.

Fading this rally in MTVA at $1.12. ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of 0% against zero revenue and FY 2025 net loss of -$13.0M produce an RQD of 31 and a Strong Sell verdict.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $1.12 (52-wk range $0.97–$14.85), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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