Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$11.16 +0.54% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.15

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $548.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NCDL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NYSE: NCDL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $11.16 (+0.54% 1D, market cap $548.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, NCDL ranks #245 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NCDL compare to ISOU and APXC in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Equities), NCDL carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.5%. By comparison, ISOU (IsoEnergy Ltd.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $575.4M) and APXC (Apex Critical Metals Corp.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $510.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NCDL leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while NCDL leads on capital efficiency (7.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NCDL?
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Per NCDL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001737924), Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $65.6M in net income, and $194.2M in free cash flow against $2.05B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.15 (-0.09%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 4.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510050
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (14)Whales (5)SEC (13)Macro (6)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
$16 Bull$11 Base$8 Bear
📬 FREE NCDL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NCDL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NCDL SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.9% FCF Margin ($194.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
42
Grade D$10.84-4.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
45
Grade D$10.39+1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
47
Grade D$10.49+6.4% Next Q
Current
50
Grade D$11.16-1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NCDL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NCDL currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.52) and Max Pain ($11.72) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.82.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NCDL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NCDL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
52.430 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
4 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE18% OF RANGE
L: $10$11.16H: $15
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 14 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on NCDL

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (70)

7.5% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (38)

17/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 6/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like NCDL
  • ✓Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NCDL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of NCDL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NCDL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.54%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $10.86H $11.16L $10.86C $11.16VOL 462.4K
RES: $12.39SUP: $10.00SMA50: $11.52SMA200: $12.75
$15.26$13.92$12.58$11.24$9.89RES $12.39SUP $10.00$11.162026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NCDL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-4.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NCDL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NCDL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NCDL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NCDL)

Industrials Rank #245 of 485 ⚔️ ISOU vs NCDL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (NCDL vs. ISOU, APXC, BMM, AUXX)

Industry: Diversified Equities (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) ranks #245 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #290 by equity capitalization ($548.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NCDL leads on earnings valuation at 8.4x trailing P/E, while NCDL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.5% ROIC and — gross margin. APXC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with NCDL at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NCDL ACTIVE
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.
D 50/100 8.4x — 7.5% +0.54% $548.2M Benchmark Subject
ISOU
IsoEnergy Ltd.
D 46/100 — — — -1.70% $575.4M /isou-vs-ncdl →
APXC
Apex Critical Metals Corp.
C- 61/100 — — — -8.11% $510.9M /apxc-vs-ncdl →
BMM
Blue Moon Metals Inc.
D- 43/100 — — — -8.11% $441.0M /bmm-vs-ncdl →
AUXX
Gold X2 Mining Inc.
D- 41/100 — — — -2.81% $396.6M /auxx-vs-ncdl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001737924

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $65.6M, operating cash flow of $194.2M, and free cash flow of $194.2M (+165.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, NCDL closed FY2025 with $2.05B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 $65.6M $194.2M $194.2M $2.05B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 $116.3M -$297.2M -$297.2M $2.14B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 $75.9M -$369.5M -$369.5M — —

3. NCDL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NCDL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NYSE: NCDL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $11.16 (+0.54% 1D, market cap $548.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, NCDL ranks #245 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NCDL compare to ISOU and APXC in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Equities), NCDL carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.5%. By comparison, ISOU (IsoEnergy Ltd.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $575.4M) and APXC (Apex Critical Metals Corp.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $510.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NCDL leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while NCDL leads on capital efficiency (7.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NCDL?

Per NCDL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001737924), Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $65.6M in net income, and $194.2M in free cash flow against $2.05B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NCDL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NCDL last traded at $11.16 (+0.54% on volume of 502,314 shares), positioning the stock -3.12% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.52) and -12.47% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.75). Across its 52-week range of $10.31 to $15.07, NCDL sits at the 17.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($10.56 to $11.76).

NCDL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell NCDL stock right now?

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 50/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 8x P/E (8% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is NCDL's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

NCDL's 12-month base price target is $10.76 (range $8.39 to $15.82), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 50/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

NCDL — Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:35:12Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, NCDL scores 50 out of 100, a letter grade of D, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine — 14 / 20: Reported ROIC is 7.5%, while FCF yield is 0%. The pillar is moderate on returns but offers no free-cash-flow yield on the current price.
  • Whale 13F Flow — 5 / 20: Institutional accumulation and options positioning are weak in this rating. Source data provides no 13F holder detail to explain the score (see Analyst View section).
  • Insider Conviction — 12 / 20: The rating reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow at a moderate level. The underlying transaction records are not itemized in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit — 6 / 20: Beta is 1.0 and the rating notes sector sensitivity, indicating limited defensive character relative to the market.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet — 13 / 20: Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 4/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. These are mid-range readings rather than a clear strength or distress signal.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the key implications are as follows. The overall grade reflects weakness in institutional flow and macro-regime fit more than in the balance sheet. Upside drivers would need to come from improved cash generation, since the current FCF yield of 0% gives no cash-return cushion at the present price. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the market data: trailing P/E of 8.4 and forward P/E of 7.8 are low on paper, but the rating's emphasis on cash engine and distribution risk suggests the discount may reflect those concerns. The dividend yield of 0% in the market data is also relevant to any income-oriented reading of the rating. This is educational context, not personalized advice.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The news wire contains five items, all tagged to NCDL:

  • A scheduled Q3 2026 earnings release and conference call (light: YELLOW).
  • A KBW "Hold" rating report (light: YELLOW).
  • A report of a new 52-week low (light: YELLOW). This is a risk watch item.
  • A scanx.trade notice that the Q3FY26 earnings release is set for Nov 3 (light: YELLOW).
  • A report of strong trading volume (light: YELLOW).
  • A report of a 2.62% gain to $10.77, described as sitting at range midpoint with bearish sentiment (light: GREEN, labeled CATALYST).

The earnings date is the nearest scheduled event. The 52-week-low report is the main risk item. The sole GREEN signal is the price-action report. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports supply chain as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What is the reported revenue and operating income for NCDL, given that the financials show $0.0M for both across all three periods?
  • What explains the swing from $116.3M net income in FY 2024 to $65.6M in FY 2025, and what drove the move from negative to positive FCF?
  • What is the period-level cash and debt position, given that most balance-sheet fields are N/A?
  • What dividend policy or distribution history supports the 0% dividend yield versus the RQD rating's "Distribution Warning" label?
  • Which specific insider, 13F, and Congressional transactions produced the pillar scores of 5/20 and 12/20?

NCDL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NCDL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NCDL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.16?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NCDL 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NCDL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $11.99 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is NCDL (D • RQD 50/100) a Buy at $11.10?

Welcome to the NCDL (Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 50/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Diversified Equities. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.10 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $11.10

Pump the brakes on NCDL — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on NCDL, but look at what you are paying: 8.4x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.99 (+26.0%)
Spot @ $11.10

NCDL cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on NCDL, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Diversified Equities and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $11.10 (52-wk range $10.31 - $15.07), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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