Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-02, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: NCLH) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $17.57 (-3.57% 1D, market cap $8.37B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, NCLH ranks #744 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Marine Transportation), NCLH carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, KEX (Kirby Corporation) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 21.7x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $7.71B) and MATX (Matson Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 15.3x, ROIC 13.5%, cap $6.79B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MATX leads on earnings multiple (15.3x) while MATX leads on capital efficiency (13.5% ROIC).
Per NCLH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001513761), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. generated $0 in revenue, $423.2M in net income, and -$1.17B in free cash flow against $22.54B in total assets and $9.15B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.8% realized swing band)
Altman Z-Score 0.45 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (69.5) create a -16 pt regime headwind
While NCLH currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($15.43) and Max Pain ($18.45) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $26.39.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) dropped -3.57% to $17.57, trading at 34% of its 52-week range ($13.63 – $25.13). Stretched risk/reward at 20x P/E (12% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Yahoo Finance report covering Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
24/7 Wall St. report covering Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Motley Fool report covering Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Norwegian Cruise Line received a slew of price target hikes following its third-quarter earnings beat.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NYSE:NCLH) reported stronger than expected Q3 results, supported by late bookings and higher onboard spending. Management raised full year 2026 financial guidance on the back of the Q3 per
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +8.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NCLH today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NCLH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) ranks #744 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #191 by equity capitalization ($8.37B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MATX leads on earnings valuation at 15.3x trailing P/E, while MATX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.5% ROIC and — gross margin. INSW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 79/100 (B+) compared with NCLH at 39/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCLH
ACTIVE
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. | D- | 39/100 | 19.8x | — | 11.7% | -3.57% | $8.37B | Benchmark Subject |
| KEX Kirby Corporation | B | 75/100 | 21.7x | — | 9.3% | -1.42% | $7.71B | /kex-vs-nclh → |
| MATX Matson Inc. | B- | 71/100 | 15.3x | — | 13.5% | -1.38% | $6.79B | /matx-vs-nclh → |
| INSW International Seaways Inc. | B+ | 79/100 | 18.8x | — | 11.2% | -1.45% | $5.81B | /insw-vs-nclh → |
| FRO Frontline Plc | B | 72/100 | 32.8x | — | 9.9% | +0.62% | $12.59B | /fro-vs-nclh → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $423.2M, operating cash flow of $2.09B, and free cash flow of -$1.17B (-239.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, NCLH closed FY2025 with $22.54B in total assets against $9.15B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.45, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $423.2M | $2.09B | -$1.17B | $22.54B | $9.15B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $910.3M | $2.05B | $838.9M | $19.97B | $8.34B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $166.2M | $2.01B | $2.01B | $4.60B | $1.08B |
As of 2026-11-02, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: NCLH) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $17.57 (-3.57% 1D, market cap $8.37B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, NCLH ranks #744 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Marine Transportation), NCLH carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, KEX (Kirby Corporation) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 21.7x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $7.71B) and MATX (Matson Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 15.3x, ROIC 13.5%, cap $6.79B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MATX leads on earnings multiple (15.3x) while MATX leads on capital efficiency (13.5% ROIC).
Per NCLH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001513761), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. generated $0 in revenue, $423.2M in net income, and -$1.17B in free cash flow against $22.54B in total assets and $9.15B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
NCLH last traded at $17.57 (-3.57% on volume of 28,322,670 shares), positioning the stock +13.87% above its 50-day simple moving average ($15.43) and -5.79% below its 200-day simple moving average ($18.65). Across its 52-week range of $13.63 to $25.13, NCLH sits at the 34.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 69.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.8% ($15.67 to $19.47).
Why NCLH Stock dropped -3.57% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 20x P/E (12% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
The Roarable RQD rating is 39 out of 100, a letter grade of D-, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow" (per the Roarable RQD rating). Across its five pillars, the Fundamental Cash Engine scores 6 of 20, citing ROIC of 11.7% and an FCF yield of -13.98% (per the Roarable RQD rating). Whale 13F Flow scores 14 of 20, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning. Insider Conviction scores 8 of 20, based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Macro Regime Fit scores 3 of 20, citing a Beta of 1.07 and sector sensitivity. Forensic Balance Sheet scores 8 of 20, citing an Altman Z-Score of 0.45, a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.86 (per the Roarable RQD rating).
For a prospective investor, the weakest pillars are Macro Regime Fit and Fundamental Cash Engine. The negative FCF yield means the rating does not see free cash flow currently covering the market valuation, and the low Altman Z-Score sits in a range the rating treats as financial stress. The strongest pillar, Whale 13F Flow, is a potential upside driver if institutional accumulation persists, but it does not offset balance-sheet fragility in the composite. The stock's recent price move (+13.45% in the market data) and its 52-week range of $13.63 to $25.13 show a wide trading band; the rating frames this volatility against leverage rather than treating the bounce as confirmation of the thesis.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Marine Transportation industry (per the company profile). Source data does not describe its product lines, customer base, or revenue model. Revenue for the reported periods is shown as $0.0M in the SEC financials, so the source data does not establish how the company earns its income. Not available in source data for further business detail.
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $0.0M | $1560.9M | $423.2M | N/A | $-1169.9M | $209.9M | $9149.2M |
| FY 2024 | $0.0M | $1465.9M | $910.3M | N/A | $838.9M | $190.8M | $8345.0M |
| FY 2023 | $0.0M | $930.9M | $166.2M | N/A | $2005.7M | N/A | $1076.8M |
Net margin is 18.1% and operating margin is 66.6% per the market data, while gross margin is listed as 0%. Net income declined from $910.3M in FY 2024 to $423.2M in FY 2025, and FCF moved from $838.9M to $-1169.9M over the same span. Debt rose from $1076.8M in FY 2023 to $9149.2M in FY 2025. The Roarable RQD rating cites an Altman Z-Score of 0.45, a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.86 as forensic balance-sheet measures (per the Roarable RQD rating). ROIC is 11.7% per the market data.
Six headlines appear in the news feed, all tagged to NCLH, with mixed signal lights (per the recent news and catalysts feed):
The feed contains no quantified details beyond these headlines. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals (per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph). Watch items are the debt refinancing reference and the year-to-date decline noted in the feed.
Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply_chain is NONE, butterfly_links is empty, and proprietary_signals is empty. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are not available in source data. The only sector-level context is the Marine Transportation classification and the peer-movement reference in one news headline.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance report covering Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
24/7 Wall St. report covering Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Motley Fool report covering Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Welcome to the NCLH (Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 39/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Marine Transportation. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on NCLH, but look at what you are paying: 19.8x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on NCLH, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Marine Transportation and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $18.22 (52-wk range $13.63 - $25.13), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.
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