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NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$6.70 +0.60% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.69

NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $1.79B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NEXT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NEXT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, NextDecade Corporation (NASDAQ: NEXT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $6.70 (+0.60% 1D, market cap $1.79B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, NEXT ranks #180 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NEXT compare to VET and CTRI in the Energy sector?
▼

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), NEXT carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -2.1%. By comparison, VET (Vermilion Energy Inc. Common (Canada)) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.91B) and CTRI (Centuri Holdings Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E 97.1x, ROIC 5.0%, cap $2.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CTRI leads on earnings multiple (97.1x) while CTRI leads on capital efficiency (5.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NEXT?
▼

Per NEXT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001612720), NextDecade Corporation generated $632.6M in revenue (+32.1% YoY), -$306.4M in net income, and -$5.02B in free cash flow against $12.43B in total assets and $8.51B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.69 (-0.08%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510037
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk D-
Cash (5)Whales (13)SEC (5)Macro (9)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.4% Base Target
$10 Bull$6 Base$5 Bear
📬 FREE NEXT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NEXT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NEXT SCORES 37/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (35% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+9/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 43% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 49.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
29
Grade E$6.12-1.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
32
Grade E$6.05+7.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
34
Grade E$6.51+2.9% Next Q
Current
37
Grade D-$6.70-8.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (29) → D- (37)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NEXT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NEXT currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.84) and Max Pain ($7.04) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.70.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NEXT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NEXT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 37%NO 63%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±12.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (NEXT)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for NEXT.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NEXT)

  • ✓Walkthrough of NEXT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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NEXT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -15.08%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-04O $7.38H $7.38L $6.66C $6.70VOL 3.63M
RES: $7.56SUP: $5.65SMA50: $6.84SMA200: $6.99
$9.49$8.46$7.43$6.41$5.38RES $7.56SUP $5.65$6.702026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NEXT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NEXT Butterfly Map → + Track NEXT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +32.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NEXT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NEXT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NEXT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NEXT)

Energy Rank #180 of 211 ⚔️ VET vs NEXT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (NEXT vs. VET, CTRI, GFR, KOS)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) ranks #180 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #123 by equity capitalization ($1.79B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CTRI leads on earnings valuation at 97.1x trailing P/E, while CTRI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.0% ROIC and 8.3% gross margin. VET currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with NEXT at 37/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NEXT ACTIVE
NextDecade Corporation
D- 37/100 — — -2.1% +0.60% $1.79B Benchmark Subject
VET
Vermilion Energy Inc. Common (Canada)
C 63/100 — — — -0.72% $1.91B /vet-vs-next →
CTRI
Centuri Holdings Inc.
E 33/100 97.1x 8.3% 5.0% +3.29% $2.15B /ctri-vs-next →
GFR
Greenfire Resources Ltd.
C- 59/100 — — — +0.33% $1.48B /gfr-vs-next →
KOS
Kosmos Energy Ltd.
D+ 52/100 — — -35.0% +4.86% $1.47B /kos-vs-next →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001612720 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) reported GAAP revenue of $632.6M (+32.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $479.0M , and +84.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$306.4M, operating cash flow of -$169.4M, and free cash flow of -$5.02B (-88.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, NEXT closed FY2025 with $12.43B in total assets against $8.51B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $632.6M -$306.4M -$169.4M -$5.02B $12.43B $8.51B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $479.0M -$61.8M -$95.6M -$2.66B $6.40B $3.92B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $343.5M -$182.7M -$73.6M -$73.6M — —

3. NEXT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NEXT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, NextDecade Corporation (NASDAQ: NEXT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $6.70 (+0.60% 1D, market cap $1.79B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, NEXT ranks #180 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NEXT compare to VET and CTRI in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), NEXT carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -2.1%. By comparison, VET (Vermilion Energy Inc. Common (Canada)) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.91B) and CTRI (Centuri Holdings Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E 97.1x, ROIC 5.0%, cap $2.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CTRI leads on earnings multiple (97.1x) while CTRI leads on capital efficiency (5.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NEXT?

Per NEXT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001612720), NextDecade Corporation generated $632.6M in revenue (+32.1% YoY), -$306.4M in net income, and -$5.02B in free cash flow against $12.43B in total assets and $8.51B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NEXT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NEXT last traded at $6.70 (+0.60% on volume of 2,688,472 shares), positioning the stock -2.05% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.84) and -4.15% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.99). Across its 52-week range of $4.75 to $9.24, NEXT sits at the 43.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($5.86 to $7.54).

Direct Sub-Reports: NEXT RQD Cockpit NEXT 12M Forecast NEXT Earnings & Move NEXT Dividends & DRIP NEXT Insiders & 13F NEXT Whale Options NEXT Profit Sankey NEXT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 37/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NEXT — NextDecade Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 37/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $6.70 (+0.60% 1D, market capitalization $1.79B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -2.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (5/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, and Debt/Equity of 8.50x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Energy sector, operating within the Oil & Gas Production industry, with a market capitalization of $1.9B. Reported revenue for FY 2025, FY 2024, and FY 2023 is — in each period .

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) reported $632.6M in annual revenue (up from $479.0M in FY2024, +32.1% YoY) and -$306.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($343.5M revenue, -$182.7M net income) through FY2025, NEXT scaled operating cash flow to -$169.4M and free cash flow to -$5.02B, backed by $12.43B in total assets against $8.51B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 37/100): Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $4.75 – $9.24 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Oil & Gas Production (Energy), NEXT carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can NEXT sustain or expand its — operating margin and -2.1% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $632.6M and free cash flow of -$5.02B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $8.51B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NEXT's equity valuation to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NEXT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NEXT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NEXT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $6.70?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NEXT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NEXT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $9.22 (+24.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional whale 13F flow scores 13 of 20, the strongest pillar in the RQD rating, reflecting reported accumulation and options posi

Don't sleep on NEXT's setup in Energy. Institutional whale 13F flow scores 13 of 20, the strongest pillar in the RQD rating, reflecting reported accumulation and options positioning.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (37/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@SiliconVal_Bull Agree on the RQD 37/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $7.38 and keeping dry powder in case we test $6.86.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $5.54 (-24.9%)
Spot @ $7.38

Reported debt rose to $8.51B against $143.8M of cash, with an Altman Z-Score of 0.2 and a Piotroski F-Score of 1 out of 9.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on NEXT: Reported debt rose to $8.51B against $143.8M of cash, with an Altman Z-Score of 0.2 and a Piotroski F-Score of 1 out of 9.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Oil & Gas Production triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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