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Stock Ratings / Health Care / NGNE / forecast
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Neurogene Inc. (NGNE) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$26.61 -3.41% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $26.40

Neurogene Inc. (NGNE) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $551.3M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NGNE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Neurogene Inc. (NASDAQ: NGNE) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $26.61 (-3.41% 1D, market cap $551.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, NGNE ranks #564 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NGNE compare to STTK and EVO in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), NGNE carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, STTK (Shattuck Labs Inc.) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $558.0M) and EVO (Evotec SE) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $544.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PBYI leads on earnings multiple (17.5x) while PBYI leads on capital efficiency (29.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NGNE?
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Per NGNE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001404644), Neurogene Inc. generated $289.3M in revenue (+31177.7% YoY), -$90.4M in net income, and -$78.4M in free cash flow against $288.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $26.40 (-0.80%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510036
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (7)SEC (13)Macro (5)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.9% Base Target
$46 Bull$24 Base$19 Bear
📬 FREE NGNE RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NGNE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NGNE SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (36% of score)

Altman Z-Score 12.76 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
28
Grade E$21.56+17.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
31
Grade E$25.40+6.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
33
Grade E$26.99-1.4% Next Q
Current
36
Grade D-$26.61-8.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (28) → D- (36)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NGNE Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NGNE currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($30.30) and Max Pain ($27.94) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $45.84.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NGNE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NGNE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your NGNE Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $26.61: 375.8 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $18.70
$7,027
$-2,973 (-29.7%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $23.98
$9,012
$-988 (-9.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $45.84
$17,227
+$7,227 (+72.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$2574%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$4369%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$2158%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NGNE)

  • ✓Walkthrough of NGNE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NGNE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -5.71%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $28.82H $28.82L $26.61C $26.61VOL 249.1K
RES: $39.56SUP: $18.15SMA50: $30.30SMA200: $27.92
$45.24$38.69$32.13$25.57$19.02RES $39.56SUP $18.15$26.612026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NGNE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NGNE Butterfly Map → + Track NGNE →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +31177.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NGNE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NGNE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NGNE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NGNE)

Health Care Rank #564 of 1015 ⚔️ STTK vs NGNE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (NGNE vs. STTK, EVO, DRUG, PBYI)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Neurogene Inc. (NGNE) ranks #564 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #425 by equity capitalization ($551.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PBYI leads on earnings valuation at 17.5x trailing P/E, while PBYI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 29.3% ROIC and 74.5% gross margin. PBYI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with NGNE at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NGNE ACTIVE
Neurogene Inc.
D- 36/100 — — -35.0% -3.41% $551.3M Benchmark Subject
STTK
Shattuck Labs Inc.
E 29/100 — — -35.0% -4.32% $558.0M /sttk-vs-ngne →
EVO
Evotec SE
D 47/100 — — — -0.65% $544.3M /evo-vs-ngne →
DRUG
Bright Minds Biosciences Inc.
D 46/100 — — — -52.35% $539.9M /drug-vs-ngne →
PBYI
Puma Biotechnology Inc
B- 70/100 17.5x 74.5% 29.3% -2.49% $538.9M /pbyi-vs-ngne →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001404644 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Neurogene Inc. (NGNE) reported GAAP revenue of $289.3M (+31177.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $925.0K , and +85.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$90.4M, operating cash flow of -$77.2M, and free cash flow of -$78.4M (-9.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, NGNE closed FY2025 with $288.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 12.76, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $289.3M -$90.4M -$77.2M -$78.4M $288.6M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $925.0K -$75.1M -$70.6M -$71.4M $335.7M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $155.6M -$36.3M -$51.4M -$51.4M — —

3. NGNE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NGNE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Neurogene Inc. (NASDAQ: NGNE) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $26.61 (-3.41% 1D, market cap $551.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, NGNE ranks #564 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NGNE compare to STTK and EVO in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), NGNE carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, STTK (Shattuck Labs Inc.) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $558.0M) and EVO (Evotec SE) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $544.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PBYI leads on earnings multiple (17.5x) while PBYI leads on capital efficiency (29.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NGNE?

Per NGNE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001404644), Neurogene Inc. generated $289.3M in revenue (+31177.7% YoY), -$90.4M in net income, and -$78.4M in free cash flow against $288.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NGNE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NGNE last traded at $26.61 (-3.41% on volume of 173,633 shares), positioning the stock -12.18% below its 50-day simple moving average ($30.30) and -4.69% below its 200-day simple moving average ($27.92). Across its 52-week range of $15.93 to $43.66, NGNE sits at the 38.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($23.28 to $29.94).

Direct Sub-Reports: NGNE RQD Cockpit NGNE 12M Forecast NGNE Earnings & Move NGNE Dividends & DRIP NGNE Insiders & 13F NGNE Whale Options NGNE Profit Sankey NGNE News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 36/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NGNE — Neurogene Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Neurogene Inc. (NGNE) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 36/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $26.61 (-3.41% 1D, market capitalization $551.3M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -13.59%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 12.76, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Neurogene Inc. (NGNE) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. The profile identifies the company's market capitalization as $0.6B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Neurogene Inc. (NGNE) reported $289.3M in annual revenue (up from $925.0K in FY2024, +31177.7% YoY) and -$90.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($155.6M revenue, -$36.3M net income) through FY2025, NGNE scaled operating cash flow to -$77.2M and free cash flow to -$78.4M, backed by $288.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 36/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -13.59% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $15.93 – $43.66 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), NGNE carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can NGNE sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $289.3M and free cash flow of -$78.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NGNE's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NGNE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Neurogene Inc. (NGNE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NGNE Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NGNE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $26.61?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NGNE 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NGNE:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $33.89 (+23.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet pillar scores 13/20 with Altman Z 12.76 and Debt/Equity 0.5, and reported cash of $103.8M in FY 2025.

The street is overcomplicating Neurogene Inc. (NGNE). Forensic balance sheet pillar scores 13/20 with Altman Z 12.76 and Debt/Equity 0.5, and reported cash of $103.8M in FY 2025.. With an RQD score of 36/100 (D-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $29.75.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — NGNE's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $23.69 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $27.55

ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -13.59% with FY 2025 net income of -$90.4M and free cash flow of -$78.4M.

ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -13.59% with FY 2025 net income of -$90.4M and free cash flow of -$78.4M.. Look at the math on NGNE: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -35.0% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $24.24 before getting long.

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