Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
As of 2026-11-02, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NYSE: NGVC) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $28.69 (+0.74% 1D, market cap $656.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, NGVC ranks #48 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), NGVC carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.1x, gross margin of 29.9%, and ROIC of 24.9%. By comparison, VLGEA (Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $630.7M) and DNUT (Krispy Kreme Inc.) posts a E grade (25/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.4%, cap $555.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VLGEA leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).
Per NGVC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001547459), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. generated $1.33B in revenue (+7.2% YoY), $46.4M in net income, and $24.1M in free cash flow against $668.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)
Altman Z-Score 3.52 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)
Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, NGVC faces multiple-compression risk if 14.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 27.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($29.41) or 200D SMA ($28.60) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($28.82) toward Bear Floor ($22.48).
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) advanced +0.74% to $28.69, trading at 42% of its 52-week range ($23.47 – $35.93). Solid 30% profit margin (25% return on capital), mixed timing at 14x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
StockInvest.us report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
https://www.siam.in/ report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Natural Grocers fits a Peter Lynch GARP screen: 17.8% EPS growth, 0.78 PEG, low debt, 19.9% ROE, but slower future growth and thin margins warrant research.
Natural Grocers®, the leading family-operated organic and natural grocery retailer in the U.S., invites customers to its annual Nevada Day event, October 30 through November 1 at its four Nevada stores. {N}power® members
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +7.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NGVC today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NGVC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) ranks #48 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #80 by equity capitalization ($656.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VLGEA leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while NGVC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 29.9% gross margin. VLGEA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with NGVC at 59/100 (C-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NGVC
ACTIVE
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. | C- | 59/100 | 14.1x | 29.9% | 24.9% | +0.74% | $656.4M | Benchmark Subject |
| VLGEA Village Super Market Inc. (Class A) | B | 73/100 | 11.2x | 28.6% | 14.0% | +0.40% | $630.7M | /vlgea-vs-ngvc → |
| DNUT Krispy Kreme Inc. | E | 25/100 | — | — | -24.4% | +2.34% | $555.2M | /dnut-vs-ngvc → |
| ARKO ARKO Corp. | D | 48/100 | 18.6x | — | 9.6% | +0.27% | $424.1M | /arko-vs-ngvc → |
| GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. | D+ | 57/100 | — | 30.3% | -12.6% | +0.39% | $1.28B | /go-vs-ngvc → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) reported GAAP revenue of $1.33B (+7.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.24B , and +16.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $46.4M, operating cash flow of $55.3M, and free cash flow of $24.1M (-33.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, NGVC closed FY2025 with $668.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.52, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-09-30 | $1.33B | $46.4M | $55.3M | $24.1M | $668.6M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-09-30 | $1.24B | $33.9M | $73.8M | $36.2M | $648.9M | $8.9M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-09-30 | $1.14B | $23.2M | $64.6M | $64.6M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-02, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NYSE: NGVC) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $28.69 (+0.74% 1D, market cap $656.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, NGVC ranks #48 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), NGVC carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.1x, gross margin of 29.9%, and ROIC of 24.9%. By comparison, VLGEA (Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $630.7M) and DNUT (Krispy Kreme Inc.) posts a E grade (25/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.4%, cap $555.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VLGEA leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).
Per NGVC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001547459), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. generated $1.33B in revenue (+7.2% YoY), $46.4M in net income, and $24.1M in free cash flow against $668.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
NGVC last traded at $28.69 (+0.74% on volume of 79,831 shares), positioning the stock -2.45% below its 50-day simple moving average ($29.41) and +0.31% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.60). Across its 52-week range of $23.47 to $35.93, NGVC sits at the 41.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.0% ($26.39 to $30.99).
Why NGVC Stock advanced +0.74% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 30% profit margin (25% return on capital), mixed timing at 14x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
The Roarable RQD Score is 59, graded C- and labeled "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral," per the Roarable RQD rating.
Net implication for a prospective investor: the rating balances a strong balance sheet and insider signal against weak institutional flow and a moderate macro fit. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the market data (P/E TTM 14.1, forward P/E 13.1), where the multiple is not stretched but the FCF yield is modest. The rating does not constitute personalized advice.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Staples sector and Food Chains industry, per the company profile. The source data does not specify its product categories, customer base, or revenue model beyond the sector and industry classification and reported revenue figures in the SEC financials. Not available in source data for further business description detail.
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $1330.8M | $62.0M | $46.4M | N/A | $24.1M | $23.2M | N/A |
| FY 2024 | $1241.6M | $47.0M | $33.9M | N/A | $36.2M | $6.3M | $8.9M |
| FY 2023 | $1140.6M | $31.7M | $23.2M | N/A | $64.6M | N/A | N/A |
Per the SEC financials, revenue, operating income, and net income rose across the three reported fiscal years, and FY 2025 net income of $46.4M reflects this trend. Per the market data, gross margin is 29.9%, operating margin 4.7%, and net margin 3.5%, with ROIC of 24.9%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 3.52 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, with Debt/Equity of 0.5. FCF declined from $64.6M in FY 2023 to $24.1M in FY 2025 per the SEC financials, which is a point to monitor against the stronger earnings trend.
Per the recent news feed, five items reference NGVC: a StockInvest.us forecast piece, a TradingView estimates item, a Simply Wall St valuation piece, a MarketBeat report that shares crossed below the 200-day moving average, and a MarketBeat item reporting a downgrade by Wall Street Zen to "Hold." Four items are marked YELLOW (market wire) and one is marked RED (risk watch), the downgrade. A further item from a third-party site describes shares testing resistance. These items are market commentary and do not contain disclosed operational catalysts in the source data. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, there are no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
StockInvest.us report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
https://www.siam.in/ report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Welcome to the NGVC (Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 59/100 (Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral) in Food Chains. Bulls point to capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on NGVC, but look at what you are paying: 14.1x trailing P/E with 29.9% gross margins. Unless Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on NGVC, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Food Chains and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $28.48 (52-wk range $23.47 - $35.93), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.
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